home Debit cards External threats to the economic security of Russia and its regions. Threats to Russia's economic security

External threats to the economic security of Russia and its regions. Threats to Russia's economic security

The main threats to economic security are such phenomena and processes that negatively affect the economic state of the country, limit the economic interests of the individual, society, state, and create a danger to national values and way of life.

In the very general view economic threats are divided into external and internal.

Internal threats to economic security include the following:

increasing structural deformation of the country's economy;

decrease in investment and innovation activity;

destruction of the country's scientific and technical potential;

the effect of a steady trend towards turning the country into a fuel and raw materials periphery of developed countries;

increasing wealth stratification in society;

criminalization of the economy and society.

External threats to economic security include the following:

“brain drain” abroad;

“capital flight” abroad;

growth of public debt;

increasing import dependence on food and consumer goods;

excessive openness of the economy;

loss of markets for military products;

purchase of enterprises by foreign capital in order to displace national products from both foreign and domestic markets;

low level of development transport infrastructure export-import operations.

External threats affect the threat strength of some internal threats. External threats to economic security include:

economic;

social;

environmental;

information and other spheres of public life.

Of the above-mentioned internal threats to economic security, it is especially necessary to highlight the increase in structural deformation of the economy, because in order to ensure the economic growth in the country, it is necessary first of all to carry out structural modifications in the economy, the essence of which is to match the structure of production and the structure of demand. The main directions of economic restructuring are as follows:

recognition of the expediency of maintaining functioning enterprises in the economy;

identification of enterprises working under military orders and not subject to conversion;

the use of foreign capital in those areas and sectors of the economy that significantly influence structural changes;

legislative determination of those areas and sectors of the economy that contribute to the creation of an optimal structure National economy.

A serious threat to economic security is the decline in investment and innovation activity. It is known that without significant investment investments economic growth cannot be ensured in strategic areas and sectors of the economy. Meanwhile, the economic policy of the last decade in our country not only did not create conditions for the investment process, but, on the contrary, did not contribute to the restoration of economic potential.

A serious threat to economic security is the destruction of scientific and technical potential. Ensuring economic security involves the accelerated development of knowledge-intensive industries and industries (instrument making, electronic engineering, electrical industry), which contribute to strengthening the material and technical base of scientific organizations, thereby creating prerequisites for the development of natural science and technical knowledge.

One of the significant threats to economic security is the steady trend towards turning the country into a fuel and raw material periphery. This threat can be removed based on the strategy of economic restructuring. We are, of course, not talking about a sharp reduction in the export of fuel and raw materials at the present time, because this will also sharply reduce the flow of funds into the state budget.

The most dangerous threat to economic and social security is the strengthening of the wealth stratification of society, the deep polarization of well-being and the disintegration of society. In our country, every year, according to the Russian tax department, the number of millionaires was estimated at hundreds of thousands. Along with this, approximately a third of the population has incomes below the subsistence level. The basis for the reproduction of the poor population is the low level of economic development. Therefore, to reduce poverty it is necessary to increase the rate of economic growth.

As the data shows, the absolute majority of the Russian population is poor. A significant multimillion-dollar part of the Russian population is, by world standards, poor, and these are not only homeless people and beggars. Beggars can be called those families whose income does not reach 5,500 rubles per person per month (this amount is theoretically possible for a person to survive in the conditions of the Russian Federation). Accordingly, the poor include many pensioners, residents of villages, provincials, citizens working in low-paid jobs and having children or disabled family members, and also students.

Currently, the criminalization of the economy poses a major threat to economic security. Criminalization of the economy is the process of forming an economy in which a significant role is played by criminal elements and forms of management, mafia structures involved, for example, in drug trafficking, human trafficking, export of prohibited substances abroad, clandestine mining and trade in precious metals and stones, carrying out fraud and speculation on stock exchanges, in banks, etc. Senchagov V.K., Economic security of Russia, Moscow, 2005, p. 243

The danger of expanding the criminal economy for society is that it significantly reduces the tax base and the amount of taxes collected. To combat the criminalization of the economy, an effective legislative framework is needed.

Let us highlight some of the external threats to economic security.

Let's start with one of the important dangers - “brain drain” or “brain drain”, the emigration of the population, usually of its intellectual potential, and, consequently, to the inhibition of economic growth. The main reasons for intellectual emigration are:

extremely low remuneration for scientific work in the country of origin;

very low level of scientific research equipment;

political instability in countries from which qualified personnel are leaving.

In the process of “brain drain,” damage is caused to the Russian economy, which, having spent large amounts of money on training its scientists and specialists, loses a significant number of them, which reduces the level of its economic and technological security. According to recent calculations by American sociologists, the cost of training one highly qualified scientific and technical specialist costs approximately 800 thousand dollars. Taking into account the fact that the average annual rate of emigration of scientists from Russia in recent years was estimated at 5-5.5 thousand people, it annually suffers damage of 4-4.5 billion dollars. If we add highly qualified engineering and technical specialists, representatives of medical professions, teachers and cultural figures to the category of scientific workers, then, according to some data, the total annual damage to Russia from “brain drain” reaches 50-60 billion dollars. http://www.eprussia.ru/epr/69/4675.htm - article from the newspaper “Energy and Industry of Russia”,

An important circumstance that negatively affects economic security is the so-called “capital flight” abroad. This is one of the key threats to economic security. Which is understandable, because investments in the national economy contribute to the development of the national economy of a given country, its economic growth, and improving the level and quality of life of its population. That is, capital exported abroad “works” for the country into which it was imported.

The specifics of “capital flight” from Russia are as follows:

the radical nature of the accelerated transformation of the economic and political system;

low level of investor confidence in the national currency, which led to a “flight” from the ruble to the dollar;

high level of inflation in the country.

Table 1. Net capital flight from Russia in 2011 (billion dollars)

According to the table, we can conclude that in 2011, the import of capital into Russia amounted to 86.5 billion dollars, and the export amounted to -183.8 billion dollars. Subtracting the import of capital from the export of capital, we obtain a net capital outflow of 97. 3 billion dollars. Almost 100 billion dollars. This is the result of Russia’s participation in international investment cooperation over the past year.

An important threat to economic security is external public debt.

Public debt is the amount of accumulated debt of the state resulting from credit financing of its budget expenditures. Economic security: Vechkanov G.S. Textbook for universities. - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2007, p. 164 Public debt places an additional burden on the economy and increases as the economic situation worsens. However, its stabilizing role in stimulating economic growth is also highlighted. At the same time, excessive external debt, which does not take into account the real possibility of servicing it, threatens the state with bankruptcy and loss of state sovereignty. Table 2 shows the structure and size of public external debt Russian Federation.

Table 2. Structure of public external debt of the Russian Federation* as of November 1, 2012

In the process of creating and maintaining national economic security, key reasons and threats arise that can disrupt it. The main threats are defined in the Concept of National Security of the Russian Federation, approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of December 17, 1997 No. 1300 (as amended by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of January 10, 2000 No. 24). In accordance with it, threats are divided into internal and external in relation to the location of the causes of their occurrence - outside national economy and inside it.

The main internal threats to national economic security are:

1) increasing the degree of differentiation in living standards and incomes of the population. The formation of a small group of the rich population (oligarchs) and a large part of the poor population creates a situation of social tension in society, which ultimately can lead to serious socio-economic upheavals. This creates a number of problems in society - total uncertainty of the population, its psychological discomfort, the formation of large criminal structures, drug addiction, alcoholism, organized crime, prostitution;

2) deformation of the sectoral structure of the national economy. The orientation of the economy towards the extraction of mineral resources is creating serious structural changes. A decrease in competitiveness and a total curtailment of production stimulates an increase in unemployment and reduces the quality of life of the population. The resource orientation of the national economy allows for high income, but in no way ensures sustainable economic growth;

3) increased unevenness economic development regions. This kind of situation poses the problem of breaking the single economic space. The sharp difference in the level of socio-economic development of regions destroys existing connections between them and impedes interregional integration;

4) criminalization of Russian society. In society, there has been a sharp increase in the tendency to obtain unearned income through direct robbery and seizure of property, which negatively affects the overall stability and sustainability of the national economy. Of great importance is the total penetration of criminal structures into the state apparatus and industry and the emerging trend of merging between them. Many entrepreneurs refuse legal methods Solving disputes among themselves, avoiding free competition, are increasingly resorting to the help of criminal structures. All this negatively affects the general economic situation and prevents the national economy from emerging from the crisis;

5) a sharp decline in Russia's scientific and technical potential. The basis of economic growth - scientific and technological potential - has been practically lost over the past decade, due to a reduction in investment in priority scientific and technical research and development, the mass departure of leading scientists from the country, the destruction of knowledge-intensive industries, and increased scientific and technological dependence. The future development of the economy lies in knowledge-intensive industries, for the creation of which Russia today does not have sufficient scientific potential. Accordingly, it is being questioned whether Russia has a place in the world economy;

7) strengthening the isolation and desire for independence of the subjects of the Federation. Russia has significant territories that function within the framework of a federal structure. The manifestation of separatist aspirations by the subjects of the Federation poses a real threat to the territorial integrity of Russia and the existence of a single legal, political and economic space;

8) increased interethnic and interethnic tension, which creates real conditions for the emergence of internal conflicts on ethnic grounds. It is broadcast by a number of public associations whose interests do not include preserving the cultural and national integrity of Russia;

9) widespread violation of the common legal space, leading to legal nihilism and non-compliance with legislation;

10) decline in physical public health, leading to degradation due to the crisis of the healthcare system. As a result, there is a steady trend towards a reduction in the birth rate and life expectancy of the population. The decline in human potential makes economic growth and industrial development impossible;

11) demographic crisis, associated with a stable tendency for the total mortality of the population to prevail over the birth rate. The catastrophic decline in population poses the problem of populating the territory of Russia and its retention of existing borders.

Taken together, domestic threats to national security are closely intertwined and interconnected. Their elimination is necessary not only to create the proper level of national security, but also to preserve Russian statehood. Along with internal ones, there are also external threats to national security.

The main external threats to national security are:

1) a decrease in the role of Russia in the world economy due to the targeted actions of individual states and interstate associations, for example the UN, OSCE;

2) reduction of economic and political influence on processes occurring in the global economy;

3) strengthening the scale and influence of international military and political associations, including NATO;

4) emerging trends towards the deployment of military forces of foreign states near the borders of Russia;

5) widespread proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the world;

6) weakening of the processes of integration and establishment of economic ties between Russia and the CIS countries;

7) creating conditions for the formation and occurrence of military armed conflicts near the state borders of Russia and the CIS countries;

8) territorial expansion in relation to Russia, for example, from Japan and China;

9) international terrorism;

10) weakening of Russia’s position in the field of information and telecommunications. This is manifested in a decrease in Russia’s influence on international information flows and the development by a number of states of information expansion technologies that can be applied to Russia;

11) intensification of the activities of foreign organizations engaged in reconnaissance and collection of strategic information on Russian territory;

12) a sharp decline in the country’s military and defense potential, which does not allow it, if necessary, to repel a military attack, which is associated with a systemic crisis in the country’s defense complex.

Ensuring national security at a sufficient level necessitates constant monitoring of external and internal threats, and therefore their list is constantly changing depending on specific political, social, legal and economic conditions.

Adopted in 1997 and amended in 2000, the Concept of National Security of the Russian Federation is not a simple declaration. It is an effective legal document regulating the priority area of state activity - national security. Only starting in 2003, it began to be implemented after the necessary potential had been accumulated. The introduction of a system for appointing senior officials of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation minimized the threat to the territorial integrity of Russia. The recent ban on the activities of funds with foreign capital participation in Russia has reduced the degree of its political and economic dependence. Now we are witnessing a process in which the accumulated potential of state power has begun to implement the National Security Concept adopted in 1997, albeit not effectively and efficiently in all areas.

An immediate danger to economic interests is created by economic threats that disrupt the normal course of social reproduction. In the most general form, they can be classified into aggregate groups such as internal and external threats.

External factors include, first of all, geopolitical and foreign economic factors, as well as global environmental processes.

Foreign economic security in an open economy requires: firstly, that the country’s participation in world economic relations creates the most favorable conditions for national production; secondly, so that the national economy is least affected by unfavorable developments in the world, both in the economic and political spheres, although it is impossible to completely avoid this influence in an open economy.

TO external factors

The predominance of raw materials in exports, the loss of traditional markets for military and engineering products;

The country's dependence on the import of many types of products, including strategically important foodstuffs;

Increasing external debt;

Insufficient export and currency controls and open customs borders;

Underdevelopment of modern financial, organizational and information infrastructure to support export competitiveness and rationalize the import structure;

Underdevelopment of transport infrastructure serving export-import operations.

A sharp drop in prices for exported goods or, conversely, a sharp increase in prices for imported goods in conditions of a high degree of dependence on the foreign market is very dangerous for the state of the economy. The introduction of an embargo on trade with countries or a group of countries that are important markets or suppliers of products for the state poses a danger to the economy. A high degree of dependence on the supply of certain types of products from one country or group of countries (for example, food) is unacceptable, which allows these countries to use this dependence for political pressure on other countries. A high degree of financial dependence on foreign countries should not be allowed, which would allow creditors to impose economic policies and conditions for foreign economic relations.

A great danger for the economy is a situation when more than half of exports are accounted for by two or three goods. From the experience of many developing countries It is known that such an export structure, in the event of a serious deterioration in the situation associated with the demand for these goods on the world market, or in the political situation, puts the economy on the brink of disaster. It is necessary, along with the export of traditional goods, to create a more progressive export structure through radical diversification of exports, which should lead to strengthening the country’s foreign economic security.

TO internal factors posing a threat to economic security include:

Structural deformation of the economy inherited from the past;

Low competitiveness of the national economy, caused by the backwardness of the technological base of most industries, high energy and resource intensity;

High level of monopolization of the economy;

High level of inflation;

Insufficient development and sustainability of infrastructure facilities;

Weak degree of exploration of the mineral resource base and insufficient opportunities to involve resources in economic circulation;

Deterioration of the state of the country’s scientific and technical potential, loss of leading positions in certain areas of scientific and technological development, including as a result of “brain drain” abroad and to other areas of activity, loss of prestige of intellectual work;

Displacement of domestic producers, especially consumer goods, from the domestic market by foreign firms;

Trends in regional separatism and a high level of industry lobbying when making management decisions;

Low investment activity;

Preference for current expenses to the detriment of capital ones;

Potential threat of social conflicts, including due to imperfections in the wage mechanism, rising unemployment, stratification of the population, and declining quality and level of education;

Imperfection of legal legislation, monopoly position and dishonesty of actions of a number of economic entities on the domestic and foreign markets, their low legal discipline;

Low financial and contractual discipline of Market agents;

Criminalization of the economy and corruption in the field of economic management;

Massive concealment of income and tax evasion;

Illegal transfer financial resources abroad.

Internal factors, in turn, are divided into: 1) related to the patterns of cyclical development of the economic system and 2) not related to the cyclical patterns of development. The scale and sustainability of the action of the first group of factors lead to the conclusion that, under certain conditions, they can have negative consequences at the macroeconomic level and pose a real threat to the economic security of the state.

The actions of the second group of factors are caused by the consistent accumulation of long-term destructive trends in the conditions of reproduction of key elements of the economic system, namely:

In the state and efficiency of using the country’s production innovative and scientific and technical potential;

In economic relations of management and management;

In the social sphere;

Able environment;

In the system of federal relations and in the regional economy.

Increasing decline in production and loss of markets. The ongoing deep economic crisis in Russia has led to a sharp reduction in production. The scale of the recession itself poses a serious threat. But more importantly, the reduction in production volumes leads to the inevitable displacement of domestic producers not only from the world market, but also from the domestic market. The development of processes in this direction may become irreversible, in which production, even with strong financial and other support, can no longer be restored due to the lack of a sales market. Thus, the possibility of revival and recovery of the domestic economy disappears, and the country will lose the chance to return to the ranks of highly developed powers.

A serious and very real threat to the economic security of the country is posed by the curtailment of fundamental research, the collapse of world-class research teams and design bureaus, a sharp reduction in orders for high-tech and quite competitive products, and “brain drain” from the country. An equally serious danger, although one that has not attracted sufficient attention, is the departure of highly qualified specialists and workers from the sphere of their professional activities into more prestigious and highly paid sectors of the economy.

The structure of industrial production is changing significantly, in which raw materials industries - the fuel industry and metallurgy - are increasingly beginning to predominate, with a reduction in the share of finishing industries - mechanical engineering, the chemical industry, as well as light and food industries. The hopes that the market on its own, outside government regulation and the implementation of a targeted selective policy, capable of ensuring progressive changes in the structure of production. The hopes for foreign investors also did not materialize, since their areas of interest do not coincide with their priorities. economic policy states.

Haste in destroying existing structures and economic ties, exacerbation of price imbalances between industry and agriculture, the rejection of reasonable paternalism towards domestic producers and the almost complete opening of the domestic market to food imports - all this undermines basis for the country's self-sufficiency in food. Raising the question of the country's self-sufficiency in food does not at all mean pursuing a course towards autarky and isolation from the world market. Flexible and effective protection of domestic producers, regulation of ratios that allow all imports of food products, the production capabilities of which are extremely limited or non-existent in the country, to be covered by the export of such food products, the production of which is more efficient. Monopoly of agricultural machinery manufacturers, swelling of intermediary structures, ill-conceived tax and credit policy make food production inefficient and lead to an increase in the share of manual labor. The volume and share of the trade portion of food resources are steadily declining, and the naturalization of production is increasing.

Internal threats are the inability to self-preservation and self-development, the weakness of the innovative principle in development, the ineffectiveness of the system of state regulation of the economy, the inability to find a reasonable balance of interests when overcoming contradictions and social conflicts in order to find the most painless and effective ways of developing society.

External threats, at first glance, reflect the current state of the world economy, but do not undermine the foundations of its development.

This is, first of all, changes in the situation in world prices and foreign trade, sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, the excess of capital outflow over its inflow (foreign investment); large external public debt and increasing corporate debt, excessive import dependence, overload of exports with raw materials. However, the duration of their action and the expansion of the range of interaction of threats lead to Russia falling behind foreign countries in the rate of economic growth, competitiveness and well-being of citizens.

Studies of internal and external threats conducted in recent years have shown that the greatest danger to the new Russian state comes from its internal threats. It turned out that the long-term persistence of internal threats without an effective economic policy makes the country more vulnerable to external threats. This is due, firstly, to the fact that internal threats, weakening the economic and especially financial strength of the state, make it difficult to maintain and modernize the army taking into account the structure of new threats. This became obvious with NATO aggression against Yugoslavia and the armed confrontation of Chechnya with the federal center of the Russian Federation. Secondly, the economic weakness of the state turns the nation into a hostage of international financial organizations, since the country’s budgetary resources do not allow the state to function effectively, to fulfill even minimal social obligations, for example, to pay wages public sector employees, pensions, benefits. Getting into debt not only does not solve the problem of the budget and its deficit, but, on the contrary, leads to an increase in its expenses for servicing external debt. Thirdly, internal threats, the inability of domestic commodity production to satisfy domestic demand lead to greater dependence of the economy on imports, conditions of the external market in its commodity and financial segments, primarily in terms of food, machinery and equipment, and international loans. Fourthly, without coping with internal threats, the state is deprived of the opportunity to pursue an active foreign policy, protect the interests of domestic producers, promote the export of competitive products, and conquer new commodity markets. Therefore, the State, with a weakened economy and imperfect financial system deprived of the opportunity to influence the policies of international financial organizations.

So what is meant by threat?

Threat is understood as a set of conditions and factors, a combination of circumstances that significantly increase the risks of a subject’s life. Threats arise as a result of deliberate or unconscious actions of people, authorities and management, other parts of the economy, as well as natural processes. Sources of threats may arise during the unfavorable development of economic, social, political and other processes in the external or internal environment of any economic entity.

It is advisable to classify threats to Russia's economic security according to the main spheres of life.

Below is the structure of the main internal (Fig. 1) and external (Fig. 2) threats to Russia’s economic security, which are currently manifesting themselves to the greatest extent or will manifest themselves in the near future.

Internal threats to economic security

Calculation of an inflated transfer price used to optimize the taxation of TNCs of a production and technological nature

Organizationally

legal

Social

Financial

Environmental

Deep decline in production

Deformation of the structure Russian economy

Destruction of scientific and technical potential

Deterioration of the physical preparation and emergency hazard

competitiveness

economy

Raw material orientation of the economy, etc.

Low investment activity

Crisis of the monetary and financial credit system

Continued high level of inflation

High level of crime in the Russian economy

Low efficiency of enterprises, etc.

High level of economic monopoly

Imperfection of economic policy formation mechanisms

Imperfections of the legislative framework and weakness of government institutions

Insufficient development of infrastructure facilities

Lack of incentive mechanisms for efficient production

Low standard of living of the population

Strengthening the property differentiation of the population

Rising unemployment and declining work motivation

Negative trends in population growth

Deterioration of public health, etc.

Low level of environmental protection activities

Decrease in indicators of economic efficiency of production

High level of wear and tear of specialized technological and treatment facilities

The constantly increasing number of man-made disasters with damage to the environment Fig. 1

Let's consider the most dangerous threats to the economic security of the Russian Federation that have manifested themselves in the last 10 years. 1.

Loss of production potential due to high depreciation of fixed assets.

The wear and tear of machinery and equipment is now at a critical level, amounting to more than 60%. Currently, the renewal rate of fixed assets is 5-6 times less than in the 1980s.

For example, according to estimated data, the physical wear and tear of fixed assets in housing and communal services in Russia as a whole is 55-65% in certain areas, and reaches 80% in certain municipalities.

Therefore, we need a fundamentally different strategy for the reproduction of fixed capital based on a high-quality investment structure with priority development of innovative technologies and manufacturing industries. 2.

External debt, danger of exacerbation financial crisis. The total amount of debt, which was announced in February 2008 at the economic forum "Russia" by the head of Sberbank G. Gref, amounted to 431 billion dollars. Of this, the external debt of Russian companies is 392 billion dollars. 3.

Unstable investment activity. In 2000, for the first time in Russia there was a significant decline in investment - 17.4%. However, in 2001 the rate dropped sharply to 10%, in 2002 to 2.6%, and in 2003 it increased again to 12.5%.

Based on the results of 2007, it should be noted that there was a record influx of capital into Russia - about 80 billion dollars, with a forecast of 41 billion dollars. The influx of investment is associated primarily with the growth of the Russian economy over the past 8-9 years. 4.

Low competitiveness of products. It is known that after the sharp devaluation of the ruble, imports began to decline significantly and domestic goods found their niche in the domestic market. Share of imports in resources retail turnover decreased from 48-52% in 1994-1998. up to 35% by the beginning of 2000. However, later the effect of import substitution was exhausted. Domestic products have again ceased to be competitive. In 2001, the share of imports in retail turnover resources again amounted to 41%, in 2003 - 44%.

In recent years, the growth of imports continues, as evidenced by the MERP data in 2005 - 125 billion dollars, 2007 - 198.7 billion dollars.

The main thing is that its structure has changed not for the better. It is becoming more and more consumerist. 5.

High level of poverty and low quality of life for most of the Russian people. The share of the population with incomes below the subsistence level decreased significantly in 2003 compared to 2000 (36%), but still amounts to more than 20% and is more than 2 times higher than the threshold value. The ratio of the incomes of the top 10% to the incomes of the bottom 10% of the population has remained at 14 in recent years. 6)

Capital flight. According to Interpol, over the past 15 years, 250 billion dollars have been exported from Russia. According to the World Bank, in 2006 alone, guest workers sent home 11.4 billion dollars from Russia. This is the fifth highest figure in the world after the United States. Saudi Arabia, Switzerland and Germany. 7.

In the manufacturing sector, one of the main threats to economic security is the decline in production, accompanied by underutilization of production capacity. The consequence of this is the concession of the domestic market to foreign manufacturers, the closure of certain industries, and subsequently difficult social consequences- a decline in the standard of living of workers, an increase in unemployment.

For example, in recent years, Russia has sharply reduced its own production of metalworking equipment. Product output decreased 12 times and is about 5,000 units. Today, in one year, Russia produces as much metalworking equipment as in China in 2 weeks. These are some depressing statistics. 8.

An equally important threat to industrial safety is the deterioration of the structure of industrial production. The dynamics of the structure are characterized by a tendency towards a reduction in the number of “redistributions”, a decrease in the share of the manufacturing industry. This process goes in parallel with the growth of imports finished products. This development of the situation contributes to a decline in the regions’ own production and an increase in uncompetitiveness. 9.

In the sphere of foreign economic activity, the main threat to the economic security of Russia, which arose during the reform of the Russian economy, is the conquest by foreign enterprises and firms of the domestic Russian market for many types of goods and, as a consequence, Russia’s dependence on the import of many types of products, including strategically important food products , as well as components for mechanical engineering.

Another dangerous threat to the economy of Russia and its regions in the field of foreign economic activity is the predominance of raw materials in Russian exports, as well as the loss of traditional markets for military and engineering products. As a result, Russia is gradually turning into a “third world” country supplying the developed countries raw materials (primarily fuel and energy), on the one hand, and on the other hand, becoming more and more dependent on these countries every year for the import of high-tech products.

Based on the above, we can conclude that all of the listed threats in 2001-2005. did not lead to a systemic crisis, which is due to the very favorable global energy price environment for Russia. In the coming years, these threats will continue to operate, although, in our opinion, the influence of some will decrease due to increased investment activity, while others (depreciation of fixed assets and the increase in man-made disasters) will increase.

External factors include primarily geopolitical and foreign economic factors, as well as global environmental processes.

TO external factors posing a threat to economic security include: - the predominance of raw materials in exports, the loss of traditional markets for military and engineering products;

The country's dependence on the import of many types of products, including strategically important foodstuffs;

Increasing external debt;

Insufficient export and currency controls and open customs borders;

Underdevelopment of modern financial, organizational and information infrastructure to support export competitiveness and rationalize the import structure;

Underdevelopment of transport infrastructure serving export-import operations.

A great danger for the economy is a situation when more than half of exports are accounted for by two or three goods. From the experience of many developing countries, it is known that such an export structure, in the event of a serious deterioration in the conditions associated with the demand for these goods on the world market, or in the political situation, puts the economy on the brink of disaster. It is necessary, along with the export of traditional goods, to create a more progressive export structure through radical diversification of exports, which should lead to strengthening the country’s foreign economic security.

The transition to an open economy implies a rejection of extreme protectionism. However, the protection of industries and production that are promising from the point of view of the formation of a new model for the inclusion of countries in world economy, that is, selective protectionism, is necessary. From the point of view of economic security, we must strive to diversify sales markets for domestic goods, sources of imported raw materials and industrial products, maintain economic relations with a wide range of countries, compensating for complications in relations with some countries by expanding them with others.

Considering the global nature of integration processes in the world, foreign economic policy is called upon to look for ways to cooperate not only with the European Union, but also with other integration groups, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.

In the context of a deep economic crisis and a catastrophic fall in capital investment, foreign investment could serve as a catalyst for economic recovery in some areas, hence improving economic situation the country as a whole, thereby helping to strengthen economic security. The mechanism for attracting foreign investment should facilitate real investment foreigners of financial and material resources into the national economy, and not create conditions for them to buy up parts of the national wealth for next to nothing. Thus, taking measures to widely attract foreign investment into the economy, it is necessary to regulate this process so that national interests are respected and foreign companies, investing minimal funds, could not establish control over entire sectors of domestic production.

State national currency is considered throughout the world to be an indicator of the economic situation of a country. The outflow of financial resources from the country on a huge scale ("capital flight") is one of the most serious threats to national economic security. A legal form of leakage of funds is, for example, the transfer of huge amounts commercial banks to accounts in foreign banks. Illegal channels include underpricing when exporting and inflating prices when importing (the difference between the fictitious and real price is transferred by foreign partners to the accounts of domestic businessmen in Western banks), transfer "in advance" for imports, which are not followed by any imports, etc. The real scale of capital flight is difficult to determine.

According to the UN, every year 300 billion dollars are laundered in the world, obtained from the illegal trade in drugs, weapons, underground gaming business, prostitution, etc. In 1990, the Council of Europe adopted the Convention on Laundering, Identification, Seizure and confiscation of proceeds from criminal activities, but only 6 states have ratified it so far.

One of the most complex foreign economic problems that poses serious threats not only to the economic but also to the political situation of the country is the problem of external debt. The high level of external debt in itself casts doubt on the possibility of pursuing a completely independent foreign policy with full consideration of its own national interests, since the country is forced to constantly look back at the leading creditor countries.

To cover external debt, it is necessary to use the debt of foreign countries, which often exceeds the external debt of the state itself. As for new credits and loans, they can only be used to finance production projects that guarantee payment of loans within the agreed time frame by expanding the export of products produced at the facilities being created.

In the internal economic sphere, security is determined by natural, technical and technological, infrastructural, social and other factors of macro- and microeconomic development, internal immunity and external protection from various kinds of destabilizing and destructive influences.

TO internal factors posing a threat to economic security include:

Structural deformation of the economy inherited from the past;

Low competitiveness of the national economy, caused by the backwardness of the technological base of most industries, high energy and resource intensity;

High level of monopolization of the economy;

High level of inflation;

Insufficient development and sustainability of infrastructure facilities;

Weak degree of exploration of the mineral resource base and insufficient opportunities to involve resources in economic circulation;

Displacement of domestic producers, especially consumer goods, from the domestic market by foreign firms;

Trends in regional separatism and a high level of industry lobbying when making management decisions;

Low investment activity;

Preference for current expenses to the detriment of capital ones;

Potential threat of social conflicts, including due to imperfections in the wage mechanism, rising unemployment, stratification of the population, and declining quality and level of education;

Imperfection of legal legislation, monopoly position and dishonesty of actions of a number of economic entities in the domestic and foreign markets, their low legal discipline;

Low financial and contractual discipline of Market agents;

Criminalization of the economy and corruption in the field of economic management;

Massive concealment of income and tax evasion;

Illegal transfer of funds abroad.

Internal factors, in turn, are divided into: 1) related to the patterns of cyclical development economic system and 2) not related to cyclical patterns of development. The scale and sustainability of the action of the first group of factors lead to the conclusion that, under certain conditions, they can have negative consequences at the macroeconomic level and pose a real threat to the economic security of the state.

The actions of the second group of factors are caused by the consistent accumulation of long-term destructive trends in the conditions of reproduction of key elements of the economic system, namely:

In the state and efficiency of using the country’s production innovative and scientific and technical potential;

In economic relations of management and management;

In the social sphere;

In the state of the environment;

In the system of federal relations and in the regional economy.

Increasing decline in production and loss of markets. The ongoing deep economic crisis in Russia has led to a sharp decline in production. The scale of the recession itself poses a serious threat. But more importantly, the reduction in production volumes leads to the inevitable displacement of domestic producers not only from the world market, but also from the domestic market. The development of processes in this direction may become irreversible, in which production, even with strong financial and other support, can no longer be restored due to the lack of a sales market. Thus, the possibility of revival and recovery of the domestic economy disappears, and the country will lose the chance to return to the ranks of highly developed powers.

A serious and very real threat to the economic security of the country is posed by the curtailment of fundamental research, the collapse of world-class research teams and design bureaus, a sharp reduction in orders for high-tech and quite competitive products, and the “brain drain” from the country. An equally serious danger, although one that has not attracted sufficient attention, is the departure of highly qualified specialists and workers from the sphere of their professional activities into more prestigious and highly paid sectors of the economy.

The structure of industrial production is changing significantly, in which raw materials industries - the fuel industry and metallurgy - are increasingly beginning to predominate, with a reduction in the share of finishing industries - mechanical engineering, the chemical industry, as well as light and food industries. The hopes that the market on its own, outside of government regulation and targeted selective policies, would be able to ensure progressive changes in the structure of production did not materialize. The hopes for foreign investors also did not materialize, since their areas of interest do not coincide with the priorities of the state’s economic policy.

The haste to destroy existing structures and economic ties, the exacerbation of price imbalances between industry and agriculture, the rejection of reasonable paternalism towards domestic producers and the almost complete opening of the domestic market for food imports - all this undermines basis for the country's self-sufficiency in food. Raising the question of the country's self-sufficiency in food does not at all mean pursuing a course towards autarky and isolation from the world market. Flexible and effective protection of domestic producers, regulation of ratios that allow all imports of food products, the production capabilities of which are extremely limited or non-existent in the country, to be covered by the export of such food products, the production of which is more efficient. The monopoly of agricultural machinery manufacturers, the swelling of intermediary structures, ill-conceived tax and credit policies make food production inefficient and lead to an increase in the share of manual labor. The volume and share of the trade portion of food resources are steadily declining, and the naturalization of production is increasing.

All this creates a threat of loss of the country’s production independence, which will become a fait accompli if the danger is not recognized in a timely manner and radical measures are not taken to repel it.

Internal threats to the social stability of society and, ultimately, economic security include rising unemployment. This process, negative in itself, causes particular concern when unemployment becomes widespread and stagnant. The conflict of the situation is aggravated by the fact that growing unemployment is superimposed on the specific Russian mentality of the population. It sharply increases the discomfort in people’s situation and serves as a breeding ground for the growth of crime. Working efficiently and productively becomes unprofitable and unattractive. And this is already a serious threat to the economic security of the country.

In conditions of increasing economic crisis and artificially restraining business and investment activity, the Russian leadership is increasingly using external borrowing to “patch holes” in the financial system. The use of foreign loans in itself is not something reprehensible or dangerous. On the contrary, it can become an important lever for economic recovery, its technical re-equipment, and increasing the competitiveness of manufactured products. The whole question is intended use loans and on the scale of public debt. The ineffectiveness of external borrowing is clearly evidenced by the very course of economic development: the continuing decline in production, the deterioration of its structure, the decline in investment activity in a number of countries with transition economy. The burden associated with the growing scale of external debt and the costs of servicing it is sharply increasing. Of particular concern is the focus on covering the budget deficit through external loans.

All this is happening against the backdrop of a large-scale and poorly controlled outflow of foreign currency deposits placed in Western banks. Thus, there is a development of processes that pose a serious threat to the independence and economic security of the country.

In recent years, the crime situation in the economic sphere has sharply worsened, which already poses a real danger today. Criminalization has covered almost all areas of economic life - property relations, financial and banking activities, production, trade and services, foreign economic relations.

In addition to unresolved problems, new crises have been added in recent years - budget, non-payment, settlement, investment, debt, banking.