Economic and social consequences of inflation anti-inflationary policy. Consequences of inflation, anti-inflationary policy. Anti-inflationary policy of the State

Problems of regulation of inflation occupy an important place in the theory and practice of money-cred. policy, since the indicators of inflation and its social. consequences are indicators for assessing eq. state of the country.

Social Economy. consequences of inflation:

- redistribution of income between population groups, areas of production, regions, households. structures, firms, the state;

Depreciation of monetary savings of the population, households. subjects and funds of the state. budget;

Uneven price growth, which increases the inequality of profit rates in different industries, exacerbates the disproportions in reproduction;

Distortion of the structure of consumer demand due to the desire to turn depreciated money into goods and currency (the turnover of funds accelerates, respectively, the inflationary process accelerates);

Increasing speculation on prices, currency, interest, loans, which actively contributes to the development of the shadow economy;

The decrease in the purchasing power of the national currency and distortion of its real. rate against other currencies.

There is also an effect inflationary taxation- receipt by the state of additional income due to the transfer of taxpayers from one tax group to another (which fell under a higher tax rate) as a result of indexation.

Anti-inflationary policy is a set of state measures. regulation of the economy aimed at combating inflation. There are 3 main kind of anti-infl. politicians:

1) deflationary policy - methods of limiting money demand through money-credit are used. and tax mechanisms by reducing the state. expenses, increasing the interest rate on loans, strengthening the tax process, limiting the money supply;

2) income policy (cost regulation) - involves the simultaneous control of prices and wages by completely freezing them or setting growth limits for them. Such a policy is ineffective, since a slowdown in price growth causes a shortage of goods, and the subsequent lifting of restrictions again causes a jump in prices;

3) competitive stimulation of production - industrial policy, which is characterized by an all-round state. homeland support. commodity producer and national pr-va, including measures both to directly stimulate entrepreneurship by reducing taxes, and to reduce the taxes of the population.

There are also other measures of anti-infl. politicians:

Indexation is a compensation for losses as a result of the depreciation of money;

Forms of containment of controlled price increases (“freezing” of controlled price increases for certain goods, containment of their level within certain limits).

Inflation targeting

Targeting is the setting of targets or quantitative parameters. Inflation targeting can be described as a monetary policy regime based on the use of an inflation forecast as an intermediate target. Targeting is carried out by the Central Bank, which forecasts the upcoming dynamics of inflation and, based on the forecast, sets a quantitative inflation target for the planned period.

The minimum conditions for using inflation targeting are:

1. inflation targeting is possible only in those states where low inflation exists in fact, and not formally;

2. targeting is actually the fundamental goal of monetary policy;

3.providing the proper degree of autonomy Cent. the Bank and its use of targeting only for forecasting inflation;

4. The Central Bank should have complete freedom in making decisions regarding the application of monetary policy instruments.

Under these conditions, Cent. The bank must determine a control indicator that characterizes the rate of price growth in the country's economy. Central banks mainly use the consumer price index as a controlled indicator of inflation.

Factors that make forecasting difficult:

1. fluctuations in prices for raw materials and materials in world markets;

2. changes in the conditions of agricultural production that affect the prices of agricultural products;

3. natural disasters and other force majeure events that manifest themselves in the form of supply and demand;

4. deviation of the exchange rate of the national currency from forecast values ​​that are not the result of domestic economic and monetary policy;

5. problems of the quality of statistical data and their comparability.

Theories of inflation.

Keynesian theory of inflation caused by excess demand. Representatives of this theory analyze the income and expenses of economic entities and their impact on the increase in demand. They believe that the increase in demand from the state. and entrepreneurial leads to an increase in production. and employment. At the same time, an increase in the demand of the population, since it is non-productive. nature, leading to inflation. In this regard, they recommend stimulating private and public investment, but limiting the salary of workers. Keynes considers 2 types of inflation: semi-inflation - such an increase in the money supply in conditions of unemployment, which is not dangerous, because. does not so much lead to an increase in prices, as it contributes to the involvement of the unemployed in the process of production, and real inf - it is possible when full employment is reached, when the growth of the masses is fully manifested in an increase in prices for goods and services.

The monetarist concept of inflation. Representatives consider inflation as a monetary phenomenon, as a result of an excess amount of money in circulation, for this purpose they compare the indices of money mass and the physical volume of GNP. An important place in this theory is given to expectations - proposals for future price increases that are formed in the minds of the population. They put forward the idea of ​​an adaptive nature of expectations, based on past experience and entirely dependent on the rate of price change in the previous period. According to this version, the higher the inflation rate, the more the population, the enterprise, the state takes them into account in their forecasts and actions, creating an inflationary spiral.

The theory of inflation caused by excessive costs of production. The essence of this theory is that the rise in prices, provoked by an increase in the costs of pr-va in the conditions of underutilization of pr-ven resources. The theory of inflation, due to the growth of costs, explains the rise in prices by factors that lead to an increase in costs per unit of prod-tion.

Loan capital market

Credit arises at the second stage of the reproduction process - the stage of distribution. With a loan, the cost in den. form moves first from the lender to the borrower, and then from the borrower to the lender. Loan capital is free money-e capital, released from some enterprises, corporations and other eq. subjects and intended for transfer to temporary use by others. The loan capital market is a mechanism for moving free funds from creditors to borrowers in any form. Stages of development of the loan capital market: I stage. During the period of free competition, the main form of movement of loan capital was a loan, a cat. provided by money capitalists-rentiers to various sections of society, directly to each other, as well as by banks, a cat. attracted free cash capital and savings of some subjects and provided them on loan to others. P stage. Securities appear, which are a tool with which the transfer of free money from the original creditors also takes place. III stage. At this stage, with the development of securities, various derivatives appear financial instruments- options, futures, forwards, etc. A financial market is being formed. Depending on the purposes of redistribution, the financial market is divided into the money market and the capital market. In the money market, transactions are made with assets in liquid form, which can be used as a means of payment to pay off various obligations. In the capital market, there is a redistribution of free capital and their investment in various profitable financial assets. In the loan capital market, transactions are carried out to provide some eq. subjects of temporarily free funds on loan to others: enterprises - directly to each other, banks - to any economic entities (market of bank loans), directly to the state.

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Course work

Socio-economic consequences of inflation

Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….3

Chapter 1. Inflation: concept, characteristics………………………………….5

1.1. Inflation: definition and main causes of its occurrence…5

1.2. Types of inflation………………………………………………………….8

1.3. Socio-economic consequences of inflation and measures of anti-inflation policy………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Chapter 2. Inflation in Russia at the present stage………………………..19

2.1. Causes of inflation in the Russian Federation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

2.2. Consequences of inflation in the Russian Federation and anti-inflationary policy.………………………………………………………………..…...21

Chapter 3. Forecast development of inflation processes in Russia…………………………………………………………………………....…24

Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………29

References…………………………………………………………...…30

Introduction

Inflation is a steady increase in the prices of goods and services; depreciation of money due to the fact that in the economy there are more of them than necessary. Inflation is one of the most pressing problems of the movement of the current economy. Inflation is the main destructive factor of the market economy. The higher its level, the more dangerous it is.

In the current economy, inflation appears as a result of a single set of factors, which proves that inflation is not only a monetary phenomenon, but also an economic and socio-political phenomenon.

The current inflation is characterized by the following features: if inflation was of a local nature, then in our time it is ubiquitous, global; if once it contained a larger and smaller period, now it is unchanged; current inflation is influenced not only by monetary, but also by non-monetary factors.

The relevance of this topic is as follows. With inflation, the depreciation of money occurs, the purchasing power of the population decreases. That is why it is important in the modern world to know the causes of inflation in order to prevent its growth. This will help to keep this process in a strict framework in the future.

The purpose of this work is to study inflation and the main causes of its occurrence.

The goal will be achieved through the disclosure of the following tasks:

• Define inflation;
• Identify the main causes of its occurrence;
• Describe the types of inflation;
• Consider the socio-economic consequences of inflation;
• To study the forecast development of inflation.

The object of research in this paper is inflation, and the subject of research is the socio-economic consequences of inflation.

This work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and a bibliographic list of references.

Chapter 1. Inflation: concept, characteristics

1.1. Inflation: definition and main causes of its occurrence

Inflation is a macroeconomic phenomenon characterized by a steady upward trend in prices in the economic system.

During inflation, paper money depreciates in relation to:

• To gold (under the gold standard);
• to goods;
• to foreign currencies.

As a result, in the first case, there is an increase in the market price of gold in paper money. Under the gold standard, only the amount of gold coins that is actually required for the sale of goods is constantly in market transactions.

In the second case, commodity prices rise. In the third case, the exchange rate of the national currency falls in relation to foreign monetary units that have retained their former real value or depreciated to a lesser extent.

Inflation is understood as the following phenomena occurring in the economy:

• An excessive increase in paper money in circulation compared to the real supply of goods and services;
• Decreased purchasing power of money (their depreciation);
• General long-term price increase.

The inflationary process is connected with two factors. The first factor is due to the state of production, the imbalance between the volume of production of goods and services in monetary terms and the amount of money in circulation. This imbalance is overcome either through an increase in production or an inflationary increase in the general price level.

The second factor is the state of the state budget: if the state's expenditures begin to exceed its revenues, then one of the main means of covering expenditures becomes the issue of money. However, the rise in prices in itself does not indicate the development of inflation, since it may be associated with an increase in the quality of goods, administration, etc.

Inflationary price growth is a relative depreciation of money compared to the cost of goods, a decrease in the purchasing power of money.

It is in the growth of prices that a stable macroeconomic deviation is manifested between the material and material composition of the manufactured product and its value form.

An increase in the general price level causes an excess of money in circulation. All this should be considered as an external manifestation of inflation. The underlying cause of inflation is the presence of a stable macroeconomic imbalance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply.

There are many reasons that can change the rate of price growth. For a more detailed study of the impact of inflationary factors on the economy, we divide them into two categories: factors lying on the side of aggregate demand and factors lying on the side of aggregate supply. On this basis, economists distinguish between two types of inflation.

Demand-pull inflation is a type of inflation that is caused by causes lying on the side of aggregate demand. The expansion of aggregate demand in conditions of approaching full employment and when it is reached causes an increase in the general price level. The reason is that there is an increase in solvent demand. An increase in solvency can arise only because of the additional emission of money carried out by the state excessively. So it turns out that the government, having a monopoly right to issue money, can, in certain cases, abuse it.

The mechanism of demand-pull inflation is characterized by the fact that first the money supply increases, and then aggregate demand.

Cost-push inflation is a type of inflation caused by causes on the side of aggregate supply. This type of inflation occurs as a result of a reduction in aggregate supply due to an increase in the cost of production per unit of output. First of all, the growth of costs causes monopolism, but not the state, but the monopoly of firms and trade unions. The monopoly of firms generates inertial overpricing. The monopoly of trade unions is manifested in the field of pricing in the labor market. Strong unions put pressure on employers for a raise wages or reduce the supply of skilled occupations. The costs of labor services for entrepreneurs are rising, the high cost of production makes its expansion unprofitable. Aggregate supply begins to decline, despite the fact that aggregate demand remains at the same level, and sometimes even grows.

In some cases, a counterpart to cost-push inflation is a degree of price control by foreign firms, leading to a form of imported inflation through price shocks. Imported refers to inflation penetrating the country's economy from abroad through the prices of foreign goods. So, if the country's economy widely uses imported resources in production, then their sharp rise in price will lead to an increase in costs within the country and to a reduction in total production with a simultaneous increase in prices.

The cost-push inflation mechanism is characterized by the fact that initially, as a result of rising costs, the price level rises, and only then the money supply expands.

1.2. Types of inflation

In the presence of different bases, inflation can be classified into the following types:

1. Depending on the nature of the inflationary process, we distinguish the following types of it.

Open (free) inflation is a form of inflation that is characterized by an increase in the general price level. It is typical for market economy countries, where the interaction of supply and demand contributes to open unlimited price growth. Although it distorts market processes, it nevertheless retains the role of prices as signals showing producers and buyers areas for profitable investment of capital.

Usually the data open inflation cite various statistical sources; economic agents are guided by this inflation in their forecasts. This form of inflation is of two types:

• Demand inflation. She appears there. Where production cannot respond to excess aggregate demand by increasing output since all available resources have been used up in the economy.
• Cost-push inflation (supply). With open inflation, there is an increase in prices for factors of production, which increases the cost per unit of output.

There is also a special type of inflation - structural inflation. This name was given to inflation, combining elements of inflation of demand and costs. It is based on a process associated with a change in the structure of demand1. Structural inflation is considered difficult to overcome, since it requires significant investment injections to combat it, the return on which cannot be achieved in a short time. Typically, structural inflation accompanies a period of a country's radical transition to new technologies.

In conditions of open inflation, it is possible to achieve a state of balanced market and optimal conditions for the functioning of a market economy, which creates the prerequisites for the normal sale of goods and services, provides an interest in improving the quality of goods and services. At the same time, the negative side of open inflation is the rise in prices, which negatively affects the standard of living of the people, increases social differentiation in society. At low rates of inflation, its positive aspects prevail over its disadvantages, and therefore free inflation is often more preferable than its suppressed form. However, at high rates of inflation, the open form represents a very significant inconvenience for society, and under certain conditions it may turn out to be unacceptable for it.

Suppressed inflation is hidden inflation inherent in an economy with command and control over prices and incomes. Inflation can be suppressed if the state, represented by the governing and regulating the economy, takes administrative measures to reduce the rate of price growth or freeze them. The main manifestations of suppressed inflation are not price increases, but a chronic shortage of goods and services, an increase in forced monetary savings. Suppressed inflation destroys market mechanisms, and also creates a deficit type of economy. This type inflation has both advantages and disadvantages.

If we talk about the advantages of suppressed inflation relative to its open form, then we can say that, in combination with rationing in the distribution of resource goods, firstly, it alleviates social tension in society, puts a limit on the impoverishment of the population, and guarantees all citizens a certain minimum supply. Secondly, it creates certain prerequisites for stabilizing costs and prices in the national economy.

The disadvantages of suppressed inflation include the following:

• Suppressed inflation undermines the effectiveness of the market mechanism, weakens its effectiveness;
• Deepens disproportions in the sphere of circulation;
• Weakens the role of money in the economic mechanism, the motivation of labor and entrepreneurial activity;
• Contributes to the deterioration of the quality of goods and services.

Both types of inflation - both open and suppressed - do not exclude one another. They can develop in parallel, complementing each other. containment measures

1. Taking into account the place of distribution, such forms of inflation are distinguished.

Local: price increases occur within the boundaries of one country. Global: Inflation covers a group of countries or the entire global economy.

1. Inflation is subdivided according to the rate of price increase into the following types.

Moderate (or creeping) inflation is called at rates up to 10% per year. This is a low inflation rate at which the depreciation of money is so small that transactions are made at nominal prices. It does not have a significant impact on the economic life of the country.

Galloping inflation is limited to 10 to 100% per year. Money depreciates fairly quickly, so either hard currency is used as prices for transactions, or prices take into account the expected inflation rate at the time of payment. Rapid growth can cause severe economic and social consequences (a decline in production, the closure of many enterprises, a decrease in the standard of living of the population, etc.). The standard of living of the majority of the population is deteriorating significantly; investing becomes too risky and unprofitable; in all spheres of the economy there is a fall in the production of goods and services; depreciating money.

Hyperinflation in countries with developed market economies is determined by rates of over 100% per year. The usual mechanisms and levers of price control do not work; the economy is broken and unmanageable; Savings are destroyed, investments are absent, frenzied speculation develops; The printing press is running at full capacity. In order to get ahead of the inevitable increase in prices expected by all, the owners of "hot" money seek to get rid of them as quickly as possible. Excessive demand for goods that can serve as a means of partial savings (real estate, art, precious metals, etc.) is growing exponentially. People act under the pressure of "inflationary psychosis", and this spurs prices up, and inflation begins to feed itself.

The rise of inflation from moderate to galloping, and then to hyperinflation is not inevitable for the economy. For countries with developed market economies, hyperinflation and galloping inflation occasionally erupt in these countries as well. Most typical for developed countries moderate inflation, which through government intervention is kept within the appropriate limits.

1. According to the degree of balance of price growth:

Balanced inflation - with it, the prices of various commodity groups relative to each other remain unchanged. With balanced inflation, the prices of different commodity groups relative to each other remain unchanged. Balanced inflation is not terrible for business. We only have to periodically raise the prices of goods. The risk of loss of profitability is inherent only to those entrepreneurs who are the last in the chain of price increases. These are, as a rule, manufacturers of products that depend on intensive external cooperative ties. The price of their products reflects the full amount of the increase in prices of foreign cooperation, namely, they risk delaying the sale of overpriced products to the final consumer.

Unbalanced inflation - with it, the prices of various goods are constantly changing in relation to each other, and in different proportions. When unbalanced - the prices of various goods are constantly changing in relation to each other, and in different proportions.

Unbalanced inflation reduces the income of entrepreneurs. But it is even worse when there is no forecast for the future. It is impossible to rationally choose the areas of capital investment, calculate and compare the profitability of investment options. Industry cannot develop under such conditions industrial development seems unreal. Only short speculative-intermediary operations are possible.

1. By the degree of predictability of price growth:

Expected inflation - can be predicted for any period, or "planned" by the government. Expected inflation can be predicted and predicted in advance with a reasonable degree of reliability.

Unexpected inflation - characterized by a sudden jump in prices, which negatively affects the circulation of money and the tax system. Unexpected inflation characterized by a sudden jump in prices, which negatively affects the system of taxation and monetary circulation. If the population has inflation expectations, this situation causes a sharp increase in demand, which creates difficulties in the economy and distorts the real picture of public demand, which leads to a failure in forecasting trends in the economy and, with some government hesitation, further increases inflation expectations, which will contribute to growth. prices.

1.3. Socio-economic consequences of inflation and anti-inflationary policy measures

Most people consider inflation to be a negative phenomenon. However, the costs of inflation, in contrast to the costs of unemployment, are not always sufficiently obvious. On the surface lies an increase in prices for goods and services, a decrease in the purchasing power of money.

Some economists believe that a low level of inflation revives the economic environment, but the perniciousness of even a small level of inflation lies in the distortion of the price signal. Economic decisions that take into account distorted information are becoming less and less effective. Prices containing distorted information deepen disproportions in the economy and inflation rates may move to a higher level.

In world practice, the socio-economic consequences of inflation are expressed in:

• Redistribution of income between population groups, production areas, regions, business entities, between debtors and borrowers;
• Depreciation of monetary savings of the population, business entities, state budget funds;
• Constantly paid inflationary tax, especially by recipients of fixed cash incomes;
• Uneven price growth, which increases the inequality of profit rates in various industries;
• Distortion of the structure of consumer demand due to the desire to turn depreciating money into goods and currency;
• Impairment of depreciation funds;
• Inflation slows down the investment process, as it makes the procedure for granting loans unprofitable;
• Active development of the shadow economy;
• Decrease in the purchasing power of the national currency and distortion of its real exchange rate against other currencies;
• Exacerbation of social contradictions in society.

As inflation deepens, socio-economic instability in the country increases. Hyperinflation carries huge social and economic costs.

It diverts capital from the sphere of real production to the sphere of circulation, where it turns around faster and brings huge profits; leads to a breakdown in the country's commodity circulation, in connection with the violation of the law of monetary circulation; leads to deformation of consumer demand; enhances speculative trading; adversely affects credit and the credit system; causes deep distress monetary system. The depreciation of money undermines incentives to save money.

Inflation is an unauthorized government tax paid by the private sector. It is paid by all holders of real cash balances. It is paid automatically as money capital depreciates during inflation. Funds are redistributed from the private sector (firms, households) to the state. The inflation tax shows the decline in the value of real money balances. It is usually regressive - poorer people bear the brunt of the inflation tax than richer people.

Another channel for the redistribution of income in favor of the state arises from the monopoly right to print money. The difference between the sum of denominations of additionally issued banknotes and the cost of printing them is called seigniorage. It is equal to the amount of real resources that the state can receive in return for printed money.

The constant rise in prices in the economy leads not only to the redistribution of national income. Unexpected high rates of inflation and abrupt changes in the price structure make it difficult for firms and households to plan. As a result, the uncertainty and risk of doing business increase. In the future, this may lead to a decrease in the welfare of the nation and employment.

Inflation affects the competitiveness of domestic goods. The result will be an increase in imports and a decrease in exports, an increase in unemployment and the ruin of commodity producers.

At the same time, inflation can also act as a factor in economic recovery. Intermediaries, recipients of loans, buyers of real estate benefit from it. However, in the long run, the growth of socio-economic contradictions leads to a drop in economic growth.

Anti-inflationary policy is usually understood as a set of measures for state regulation of the economy, aimed at combating inflation. Anti-inflationary policy involves control over the level of prices, and in the most acute cases, the implementation of measures aimed at reducing the money supply in circulation.

The fight against inflation and the development of a special anti-inflationary program is a necessary element in stabilizing the economy. Such a program should be based on an analysis of the causes and factors that determine inflation, a set of economic policy measures that help eliminate or reduce the level of inflation to reasonable limits.

The fight against inflation takes place only when the causes that caused it are removed. Inflation is associated with deformations in the commodity and money markets, which lead to a steady excess of aggregate demand over aggregate supply. Therefore, the anti-inflationary policy of the state must necessarily be aimed at regulating aggregate demand and aggregate supply.

There are two directions of anti-inflationary policy: Keynesian and monetarist.

J. M. Keynes believed that it was possible to raise the level of supply by creating an effective demand, which for entrepreneurs should become an external activating force. Additional investment should become another lever for supply growth. Effective demand is created by the government by giving large private firms a weighty state order. Firms associated with subcontractors also give them corresponding orders. As a result, a multiplier effect is created, a large complex of enterprises is set in motion. The decline in production is reduced, unemployment is reduced. Spurred on by orders and cheap credit, supply rises, ultimately leading to lower prices and lower inflation.

Keynesian prescriptions are based on the deepening of the budget deficit. The state order to private business represents an additional public expenditure. Public works, which Keynes recommended as a condition of survival for the unemployed, also becomes an additional expense.

The deficit of the state budget (an inevitable consequence of Keynesian programs) should in no case be covered by additional emission of money. The latter is the most destructive form of inflation, because it spreads instantly and has the widest range of action.

Monetarist anti-inflationary concepts appeared somewhat later, when the Keynesian regulation of the economy was sufficiently tested.

Monetarists led by M. Friedman noticed that the Keynesian method does not allow the crisis to fully fulfill its cleansing function. Therefore, the country, following the Keynesian policy, is getting out of the crisis ahead of schedule, while the old disproportions are largely preserved. In the future, new ones are superimposed on them, and the country, in a relatively short period of time, again crawls into crisis and inflation.

Monetarists, focusing on the anti-inflationary block associated with the growth of supply, which did not require additional investment. For this purpose, they recommend selling everything that is possible: resources, information, etc., and conducting a decisive attack on monopoly in the economy. If the country has a large public sector, then privatization is possible.

So, monetary programs are carried out in three stages:

1. A confiscatory monetary reform is being carried out;
2. The budget deficit is shrinking;
3. Tax rates are falling.

At the first two stages, levers are used that reduce aggregate demand, at the third - levers that stimulate the growth of the mass of commodities.

There are two possible approaches to managing the economy in conditions of inflation: an adaptation policy and long-term anti-inflationary measures.

The entire anti-inflationary policy can be divided into two parts

The first is measures taken over a short period of time, which should quickly bring down the heat of inflationary pressure and inspire optimism in the participants in the market process. Therefore, the adaptation policy measures are only the beginning of a clear and long-term anti-inflationary policy.

The foundation of an effective anti-inflationary policy is the measures that ensure social harmony in society. The existence of a government that most citizens trust is a good basis for anti-inflationary measures.

Chapter 2. Inflation in Russia at the present stage

2.1. Causes of inflation in the Russian Federation

The problem of inflation in Russia is one of the most topical and widely discussed both in theoretical and practical terms. The range of judgments is so wide and contradictory that there is a need for a serious comprehensive consideration of this problem.

In order to analyze the causes of inflation in Russia, we first need to recall its history in Russia over the years. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, in Russia, in the period from 1992 to 1998, a situation was formed when prices were steadily rising, which gave rise to the need for regular wage indexation, in general for workers in the public sector. This closed the vicious circle of inflation in Russia, which was forming in a spiral.

After the crisis in August 1998, the situation did not change, and the depreciation of the ruble due to devaluation and a significant increase in the dollar, forced the country's leadership to draw up a budget for 1999 and 2000 in such a way that it would already take into account funds in advance to increase wages to state employees.

The causes of inflation are the imbalance of the economy - the lag in the production of goods and services from the size of aggregate demand (monetary income of consumers). Opinions are being introduced into the mass consciousness that the market reforms carried out in the country have eliminated the lack of goods and services that existed in Soviet times, brought their supply into greater and optimal correspondence with effective demand as a monetary expression of real social needs. This is partially true, although the mentioned statements do not reproduce the full comprehensiveness and duality of the present situation. Fresh (already market) deformations of the demand structure have arisen, of which we single out the most important ones:

• concentration of consumer demand for the most part among the rich part of the population (the fifth group of the population with highest income receives after 1995 about 46-47% of the total income);
• low purchasing power of families whose per capita incomes remain below the officially valid (and low) subsistence level or in its zone;
• high share of shadow incomes;
• the accumulation of investment demand mainly in raw materials, extractive industries, trade in financial activities, while it is limited in agriculture, manufacturing and other sectors of the real economy.

Causes of inflation in Russian Federation can be attributed:

1. Monopoly. Monopolies have a good opportunity to increase prices without producing an additional product, and since nothing comes from nothing, this overpricing causes inflation. Therefore, efforts must be made to demonopolize the economy, giving importance to the peculiarities of “our” monopolies.
2. State budget deficit. At all times, governments have resorted to inflationary sources of compensation for the state budget deficit in crisis situations. This is mainly manifested in the issuance of new money, which leads to an increase in the money supply, and, as a result, to inflation.
3. Social compensation - they increase aggregate demand and increase the state budget deficit.
4. Insufficient demand for the products of domestic enterprises.
5. Decline in production. It is obvious that nominal wages are not elastic in terms of their reduction, especially during a downturn in production. This is mainly due to the strong organization of wage labor, including due to the huge influence of trade unions, as trade unions establish a monopoly on wage labor prices, which negatively affects economic system, as, in other matters, other monopolies also negatively affect it.
6. Weak state power and political instability create a very unfavorable climate for investment and for long-term productive business activities.

2.2. Socio-economic consequences of inflation and anti-inflationary policy in the Russian Federation

The economic and social effects of inflation are complex and varied. Its low rates contribute to the growth of prices and norms, thus being a factor in the temporary activity of the conjuncture. As inflation deepens, it becomes a serious obstacle to reproduction and exacerbates economic and social tensions.

Due to inflationary processes in Russia, a small circle of people was enriched who had more up-to-date information and information in the field of the economy, while other segments of the population learned to survive in conditions of inflation.

On the one hand, higher rates of price growth in the "open" sector of the economy lead to a decrease in the competitiveness of domestic goods. On the other hand, an increase in prices generates a decrease in the exchange rate of the national currency. With fixed prices for individual goods within the country, it becomes more profitable to export them abroad. This leads to a shortage of provided products.

At the moment, the formation of inflation lies in the fact that it can have a destabilizing effect on the economy.

At present, the formation of cost proportions is shifting to the sector of natural monopolies - prices for products of the electric power industry, the gas industry, and railway transport are rising. High rates of inflation can also break down the most important mechanisms of the economy, trade, saving money, investment, necessary for its normal functioning. As a final result, the deterioration of the socio-economic situation becomes a negative consequence of the uncontrolled rise in prices: the well-being of the population decreases, production is reduced.

The most important course of Russian anti-inflationary policy is the regulation of monetary policy instruments of money supply. However, overcoming high inflation in Russia with the support of only monetary methods is extremely shaky, which is interpreted by two factors.

First, there are non-payments in the country, including long delays in the payment of salaries and pensions. But if, under these circumstances, a significant emission is carried out to eliminate non-payments, then the increase in prices can return to the level of hyperinflation.

Secondly, the increase in government spending at an excess level of income, as a rule, forces the government to resort to repaying the deficit through borrowing in the domestic market has fallen sharply.

The first one is related to the intersecting implementation of the monetary stabilization program for financial stabilization under the appointment of the International Monetary Fund, the essence of which is to minimize the state budget deficit and pursue a rough monetary policy while maintaining a floating ruble exchange rate within the framework of its so-called internal convertibility.

The other way is fundamentally different from the first. He argues for the need to apply established, rather stringent measures built on the basis of the Keynesian model and its new modifications. It is another way to have in mind the proactive reactive influence of the state, including a temporary freeze or direct suppression of price and wage increases, in order to prevent high inflation. The most important condition for choosing measures should be an understanding of the underlying causes of the formed crisis situation, and depending on it, one or another decision must be made.

Chapter 3. Forecast development of inflationary processes in Russia

Inflation is the process of a general increase in prices, which leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of the nominal monetary unit. Despite the fact that in recent years inflation in Russia has remained creeping, at the present moment it is still one of the most urgent problems in the country, the solution of which is impossible without understanding the reasons for this process.

The highest value of the inflation rate was noted in 1992, the first year after the abolition of strict price regulation, which took place during the Soviet period. Prices, freed from state control, rose in 1992 by 2509%, or 25.09 times. In the next 3 years, prices continued to grow rapidly, increasing annually at times: in 1993 - 9.4 times, in 1994 - 3.2 times. in 1995 - 2.3 times. For the period 1992-1995. accumulated inflation is estimated at 1.8*105.

Beginning in 1996, as a result of vigorous anti-inflationary measures carried out by the state government, the price growth curve left the zone of 100% rates and never returned there in the following years. Moreover, in 1997 the inflation rate was so low compared to previous years - only 11% on an annualized basis - that many considered Russia's high inflation to be defeated.

Nevertheless, already in 1998 inflation again jumped very close to the 100% mark, reaching the level of 84.4%. The reason was the financial crisis that broke out in August of this year. The government has admitted that it is unable to repay debts and pay interest on them in the current period. The ensuing massive outflow of capital from the country led to the devaluation (depreciation) of the ruble, as a result of which prices in the markets for goods and services rose significantly.

In the post-crisis years, inflation in Russia gradually weakened. Nevertheless, its level remained high, exceeding the inflation rate in developed countries by 5-6 times. For comparison: in 2001-2005. the average annual inflation rate in Russia was 13.6%, in the USA, Great Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Germany - from 1.5 to 2.5%, in Japan deflation was observed at all: -0.5%.

Inflation, as one of the most important indicators of development, is an indicator of the state of the country's economy. Most Russians are interested in the forecast for 2016, which is explained by the difficult economic and political situation of the previous year.

Forecast of social economic development of the Russian Federation for 2015 and for the planned period of 2016 and 2017 was developed in the context of the deteriorating global geopolitical situation, based on the scenario conditions for the socio-economic development of Russia approved by the Government of the Russian Federation.

The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia presents two main forecast options for the development of the economy:

1. The basic option - it assumes the preservation of the conservative investment policy of private companies, limited spending on the development of companies in the infrastructure sector. Based on this option, it is planned to develop the parameters of the federal budget for 2015-2017.
2. The moderately optimistic option provides for a more active policy aimed at reducing the negative consequences associated with the growth of geopolitical tensions and creating conditions for more sustainable long-term growth.

In 2016-2017, the Central Bank predicts that the inflation rate will drop to 8%. Approximately the same figures, 7-8%, are called by representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development. However, their foreign counterparts are slightly less positive. According to their estimates, this figure will reach ten percent. However, the IMF also admitted that there are more preconditions for price growth to decline than reasons for inflation to increase.

In order to compare indicators and evaluate the emerging situation, it is necessary to go back to 2015. During this time, inflation reached 11-13%. Other figures are given by Rosstat. According to their reports, inflation in the amount of 7.9% was noted for the first 4 months. At the same time, according to experts, there is a downward trend every 30 days. Based on these data, the total annual price increase should be about 16.5%.

Analysts have compiled a list of products that increased the price the most in 2015. First of all, prices for tobacco products increased (by almost 30%). Household appliances will also rise in price, the cost of which began to rise at the end of 2014 due to the increase in the dollar and euro rates. In addition, the inflationary rise in prices was caused by the rush demand for household appliances among the population: many Russians bought several TV sets, microwave ovens, etc. in reserve. It is impossible not to mention the crisis in the automotive market. An increase in prices for products of natural monopolies was also noticed. Tariffs for passenger railway transportation have increased by approximately 10%, utility services, postal, telephone services, etc. have risen in price.

Representatives of the Ministry of Finance acknowledge that there is no reason to increase inflation in subsequent years, and there are enough prerequisites for reducing price growth. Regardless of the fact that early publications provided an inflation index in 2016 in Russia of 11.5%, the situation is improving every day, although many experts do not understand why.

The Central Bank presented a report on the rules for conducting monetary policy, which must be observed until 2018. These measures will give permission to reduce price growth by at least 4% in 2016. The reason for this statement was the increase in prices for consumer goods, as a result of which the risks will be shifted to the downside of inflationary indicators.

The cost policy of the market of the Russian Federation is directly developed by the level of the percentage inflation regime. Price increases may be the result of factors:

1. increase by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation of fundamental indicators of finance;
2. increase in tariffs of neighboring state monopolies.

The main bank of the country believes that inflation growth will fall due to economic inactivity and the easing of sanctions by 2017. Until that time Russian banks finally adapted, access to the countries of Central Asia will be opened and an analysis of domestic loan markets will be carried out.

The Central Bank focuses on the average cost of oil - $ 50 / 1 barrel. But the key point here is the recovery of economic growth. In the baseline scenario, this applies to GDP, the indicators of which directly depend on the increase / decrease in inflation.

It is expected to recreate the increase in gross domestic product by the second quarter of 2016. And we can only observe during the year, whose forecast of inflation in 2016 in Russia will turn out to be reliable.

How is the inflation rate calculated? In our country, inflation is calculated by the consumer price index. The consumer price index is one of the types of price indices, which is designed to measure the average level of prices for goods and services (consumer basket) for a certain period in the country's economy. In Russia, the Federal State Statistics Service publishes consumer price indices that characterize the level of inflation. The base period is the previous month or December of the previous year.

The meaning of the methodology is simple: a conditional standardized set of goods is taken, and then Rosstat monthly studies the prices for these goods and compares them with the prices of the previous month and last year. However, the methodology provided is not entirely correct, since many goods and services are excluded from the calculation of the consumer price index (for example, milk, potatoes, apples, communications, gas, gasoline, etc.) are thrown away due to intense seasonal fluctuations or government regulation prices, which ultimately results in inflation figures well below the present.

Also, the initial result is affected by the preference for specific product names and commercial outlets where measurements are taken. The procedure, in general, is complex and non-transparent, but the general purpose is clear: goods and commercial outlets with the lowest prices are selected.

Thus, what will be the official inflation in 2016, and whose predictions will be confirmed, time will tell. In many ways, the state of the economy in the coming year also depends on this. Both the most positive and not very favorable predictions for Russia can come true. However, this is not a reason for citizens to get upset and give up. Much remains to be done, both by the authorities and ordinary residents. You should not rely on statistics figures, even such respected institutions for the study of the global and domestic market.

Conclusion

Inflation is the process of a general increase in prices, which leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of the nominal monetary unit.

Most people view inflation as a negative thing. The costs of inflation, in contrast to the costs of unemployment, are not always clear enough. On the surface lies an increase in prices for goods and services, a decrease in the purchasing power of money.

Inflation is an unauthorized government tax paid by the private sector. It is paid by all holders of real cash balances. It is paid mechanically, as money capital depreciates during inflation.

The causes of inflation are the imbalance of the economy - the lag in the production of goods and services from the monetary incomes of consumers.

A steady rise in prices in the economy leads not only to the redistribution of national income. Inflation affects the competitiveness of national goods. The consequence will be an increase in imports and a decrease in exports, an increase in unemployment and bankruptcy of commodity producers.

The main course of Russian anti-inflationary policy is the regulation of monetary policy instruments of money supply. However, overcoming high inflation in Russia with the support of only monetary methods is extremely shaky.

What will be the official inflation in 2016, and whose predictions will be confirmed, time will tell. In many ways, the state of the economy in the coming year also depends on this. Both the most positive and not very favorable predictions for Russia can come true. However, this is not a reason for citizens to get upset and give up. Much remains to be done, both by the authorities and ordinary residents.

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Consequences of inflation are diverse, contradictory and depend on the type of inflationary process. We begin our analysis of the consequences of inflation with fully predictable inflation.

Inflation, even when fully expected, is an unauthorized government tax paid by the private sector. It is paid automatically as money capital depreciates during inflation. Funds are redistributed from the private sector (firms, households) to the state. Poorer people bear the brunt of the inflation tax more than richer people. Another channel for the redistribution of income in favor of the state arises from the monopoly right to print money. The difference between the sum of denominations of additionally issued banknotes and the cost of printing them is called seniority. It is determined by the amount of real resources that the state can receive in return for printed money. Seigniorage is equal to an inflation tax when the population keeps the real value of their cash balances constant. In addition to the inflation tax, the government can receive additional revenue from the private sector due to the impact of inflation on taxation. With a progressive system of taxation of nominal incomes, inflation contributes to increased withdrawal of funds from households. An increase in prices usually leads to an increase in the nominal income of individuals. They also fall into the group with a higher tax rate. As a result, with a constant or decreasing real income, tax payments increase. Household disposable income is declining due to the interaction of inflation and the tax system.

Projected inflation worsens the economic condition of individuals. Keeping cash leads to lost profits in the form of interest, which can be charged at the bank. The expectation of high price growth leads to an increase in the nominal interest rate and the opportunity cost of holding money. As a result, the demand for money is falling - the population visits banks more often and seeks to quickly spend cash on goods and services, invest them in invaluable assets.

Unforeseen inflation redistributes not only bank capital, but also all other financial assets and income. Assets, the income from which is calculated in nominal prices (shares, bonds, including government bonds, with a fixed monetary value and income) will depreciate as a result of rising prices. Individuals with fixed incomes suffer losses from inflation as a result of a decrease in real incomes.

Unexpected high rates of inflation and abrupt changes in the price structure complicate the planning (especially long-term) of firms and households. As a result, the uncertainty and risk of doing business increase.

Inflation affects the competitiveness of domestic goods. On the one hand, relatively higher rates of price growth in the "open" sector of the economy lead to a decrease in the competitiveness of national goods. The result will be an increase in imports and a decrease in exports, an increase in unemployment and the ruin of commodity producers. On the other hand, rising prices cause a depreciation of the national currency exchange rate. With fixed prices for some goods within the country, it becomes more profitable to export them abroad, which leads to a shortage of these products.

As already noted, relationship between inflation and unemployment brought A.Phillips, substantiated the principle: the higher the unemployment rate, the lower the growth rate of wages and inflation. Until the 70s. curve Phillips showed an inverse relationship between the annual rate of change in the level of nominal wages and the unemployment rate. This is a set of alternative options for implementing economic policy: if the government considered it necessary to reduce the unemployment rate, then it would stimulate aggregate demand, increase government spending, and so on. As a result, production will increase, the number of jobs will increase, unemployment will decrease, and inflation will increase (Fig. 27).

Rice. 27. Phillips Curve

The Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve express the same relationship. Changes in the expected rate of inflation and supply shocks cause the Phillips curve to shift. If in the 60s. considered curve was not questioned, then in the 70s. it loses its significance, since in these years the high rate of inflation was accompanied by a high level of unemployment (stagflation). The traditional Phillips curve is valid only for the short run, it is vertical and corresponds to the natural rate of unemployment. The higher the expected inflation rate, the further the curve moves away from the origin. The natural rate of unemployment is reached if cyclical unemployment is zero.

The modern Phillips curve (Fig. 28) is determined by three indicators:

¨ the expected rate of inflation;

¨ deviation of the actual unemployment rate from the natural rate;

¨ supply shocks caused by rising commodity prices. Putting these facts into an equation, we get

π \u003d π e - β * (u - u x) + ε,

where π - inflation rate; β - parameter greater than zero; u - actual unemployment rate; u x - natural unemployment rate; (u - u x) - cyclical unemployment (the "-" sign in front of the indicator of cyclical unemployment shows that with high unemployment, the inflation rate decreases); ε - coefficient characterizing cost inflation.

Fig.28. Modified Phillips Curve

Monetarists argue that movement along the curve only reflects demand-pull inflation and ignores cost-push inflation. According to the idea of ​​the natural rate of unemployment, when actual unemployment is at the natural level u - u x , the labor market comes to equilibrium, considering the actual rate of price growth to be equal to the expected one: π = π e.

We see that inflation depends on the level of employment and inflation in the previous period. This character of the curve is suitable for describing the economies of most Western countries in the last twenty-five years. The employment rate now affects not the inflation rate itself, but changes in its level. When employment is high, inflation rises, and when employment is low, it falls. It creates a gap between expected and actually offered wages. If, over a long period of high inflation, workers become accustomed to large annual wage increases, they may well find the new wages offered by employers inadequate once the rate of inflation begins to decrease and unemployment rises.

Inflation generates not only economic, but also socio-political problems. In times of high rates of price growth, especially in a period of galloping inflation and hyperinflation, the political stability of society is undermined, and social tension increases. High inflation promotes the transition to a new structure of society.

Since modern inflation is a multifactorial process, it must also be multifactorial. anti-inflationary policy, carried out by the state. It is based on two principles: adaptation and active deterrence.

Complex adaptive state measures includes indexation of incomes, control over rising prices and wages, etc. Adaptation policy has its costs, since funds for compensatory measures are withdrawn from the state budget, i.e., ultimately, through taxes from the incomes of the population and producers.

Inflation containment strategy provides for the comprehensive strengthening of the mechanisms of the market system, which are able to increase the quantity and quality of goods, reduce the cost of production. Thanks to them, it is possible to conduct a long-term monetary policy, the introduction of strict limits on the growth of the money supply; reducing the budget deficit by increasing revenues and reducing government spending; decrease in the number of employed, increase in unemployment; development and implementation of state income policy, etc.

There are direct and indirect methods of state regulation of inflation.

Direct Methods regulation received the name of income policy: setting benchmarks for the growth of wages and prices and direct control over them. These measures, on the one hand, should contribute to the destruction of adaptive inflationary expectations and inflationary inertia, on the other hand,

dampen the inflationary impulse generated by monopolies and strong unions.

Landmarks are a set of rules developed by the government. Firms and employees should comply with them voluntarily. The maximum limits for price increases and wage rates are used as benchmarks. The change in wages is usually tied to the growth rate of average labor productivity in the entire economy. Prices rise just enough to compensate for changes in labor costs. The essence of this approach lies in the fact that the income of employees is regulated directly, and profit - indirectly, through prices.

Control was usually exercised by passing laws on the simultaneous "freezing" of prices and wages for a certain period. In relation to employees, income policy is discriminatory, since government agencies and manufacturers were more willing to control wages than prices. In practice, price control is much more difficult than wage control, because there are many product groups. In addition, an increase in the average productivity of labor in the economy automatically leads to a relative and absolute reduction in the share of workers in the national income.

One of the income policy options is social contract. Trying to reach a stable compromise between rising prices and wages, the government organizes negotiations between the administration of large enterprises and trade unions.

The income policy was used in many countries - in Great Britain, the USA, etc. The effectiveness of the actually implemented income policy without the use of indirect methods of influence turned out to be not very high. As a result, in the mid-1970s, almost all developed countries abandoned its use. In the 80s, it was used in some countries with high inflation: Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Israel, Mexico. Only in the last two states was its use effective. In the USSR, the income policy was actively applied in the 30s, then it began to be carried out less rigidly. The income policy was an integral part of state regulation in the conditions of the administrative-command system. Its effectiveness declined as disproportions in the economy grew, suppressed inflation intensified, and the deficit turned into a destructive one.

To indirect methods of influence prices include "deflationary" measures of monetary and fiscal policy. Initially, they were applied as part of a counter-cyclical policy - method of fine tuning the conjuncture. During the recession, the state pursued an expansionary monetary and/or fiscal policy. The growth in demand in the economy helped to overcome the increase in unemployment. As the economy recovered, the rate of inflation increased. The "deflationary ax" helped to eliminate the "overheating" of the economy. Since a change in the direction of monetary policy is possible without a time lag, the main work falls on the Central Bank. To slow down the rate of inflation, he can impose restrictions on the growth of the money supply, the volume of loans provided, increase the discount rate and the required reserve ratio, and sell government securities on the open market.

To reduce the growth rate of the money supply in a number of developed countries, the policy of "tagging" was used. The Central Bank set benchmarks for the growth of various monetary aggregates - M0, Ml. These benchmarks were often exceeded. Weak control over the money supply was masked by the establishment of new benchmarks, for broader indicators of the monetary base - M2, MZ. On the one hand, a decrease in the money supply leads to a reduction in production, the bankruptcy of enterprises, a crisis of non-payments and an increase in unemployment. On the other hand, a decrease in the growth rate of money can be compensated by an increase in the speed of their circulation.

In addition to limiting the amount of money in circulation, the state can reduce the volume of aggregate demand by fiscal methods: reduce government spending, increase direct and indirect tax rates, abolish tax incentives, tighten the rules governing the procedure and norms of depreciation. The application of many fiscal policy instruments requires the approval of the legislature. Therefore, it is very difficult to use them for short-term adjustment of the conjuncture (including inflation). Financial stabilization and reduction of the consolidated state budget deficit are considered as a general precondition for the elimination of inflation.

To slow down the rise in prices can be applied and monetary policy instruments: limiting the inflow of money from abroad, the appreciation of the national currency. Growth and fixation of the exchange rate of the national currency lower the general level of prices by lowering prices for finished and intermediate imported goods, domestic exported goods, and inflationary expectations.

This will be effective under the following conditions. First, the exchange rate is close to purchasing power parity. Secondly, the prices of almost all goods are linked to the exchange rate. Thirdly, the inertial growth of nominal wages is limited. Fourth, there is a positive balance of payments, solid gold and foreign exchange reserves, or the possibility of obtaining external stabilization loans at low interest rates.

In the temporal aspect, the government has two alternatives for anti-inflationary policy. It can be carried out gradually over a long period - graduation policy or abruptly shock therapy. In economic theory, there is no answer to the question of which tactics are more effective and bear less social costs. Everything depends on the size of the country, the rate of inflation and unemployment, the degree and conditions of entry into the world market, the support of transformations by international financial institutions, socio-political situation in the country, etc.

At present, the main tools in the fight against inflation are the stabilization of budget revenues and expenditures, the reduction of its deficit, control over money circulation and the exchange rate.

Deflation is possible to reduce inflation. Deflation - this is the withdrawal from circulation of a part of the excess supply of paper money issued during a period of inflation. It is carried out by increasing taxes, raising the discount rate and the required reserves of commercial banks in the Central Bank, selling government securities on the "open market", reducing state budget expenditures, etc. d.

inflation refers to the system of general economic categories and manifests itself in those socio-economic formations in which commodity-money relations exist. Inflation is the depreciation of money, the fall in their purchasing power, caused by price increases, commodity shortages and a decrease in the quality of goods and services.

Inflation leads to disruption of the reproduction process in all its links: both in the sphere of production and in the sphere of circulation.

Having become a constant factor in economic life, inflation significantly complicates the system of economic relations, it requires constant attention and special measures to keep it at a “normal” level. The decisive characteristic of inflation is its magnitude. The degree of impact on the economy and on the whole society depends precisely on the level of inflation.

The socio-economic consequences of inflation are expressed as follows:

1) the volume of production decreases, since fluctuations and price increases make the prospects for the development of production uncertain;

2) there is a transfer of capital from production to trade and intermediary operations, where the turnover of capital is faster and more profit is made, and it is also easier to evade taxation;

3) speculation expands as a result of sharp and uneven price changes;

4) credit relations are limited, since no one believes in debt;

5) depreciate the financial resources of the state. The main negative social consequence of inflation is the redistribution of wealth and income if incomes are not indexed and loans are issued without taking into account the price index. The redistribution of GDP and NI occurs in various directions:

- between different spheres of production, sectors of the economy, regions of the country due to uneven price growth;

- between the population and the state, which uses the excess money supply as additional income (an inflation tax arises);

between strata and classes of the population. Unequal price growth leads to social stratification, aggravated wealth inequality, which negatively affects savings and current consumption. Inflation is especially dangerous for persons with fixed incomes (pensioners, dependents, civil servants);

between debtors and creditors. Debtors benefit from the depreciation of the cash loan.

Inflation, especially hyperinflation, leading to an aggravation of economic and social contradictions, requires the state to take measures to overcome inflation and stabilize the monetary system. Overcoming inflation is a necessary condition for normal economic development and effective functioning of the monetary and financial systems. But the reduction of inflation cannot be regarded as an end in itself, a way of automatically raising production. The processes of reducing inflation and raising production must go on simultaneously, since they condition each other. This is especially true for Russian conditions. The protracted inflation in Russia is the result of an unsuccessful general economic policy that did not ensure the growth of production, although the sharp restriction of the money supply had a temporary effect of lowering inflation.

MAIN DIRECTIONS OF THE RUSSIAN ANTI-INFLATION POLICY

The unique nature of Russian inflation requires the use of special methods of its regulation, corresponding to the current real conditions of management.

The main goal of the anti-inflationary policy is to make inflation manageable and mitigate its negative socio-economic consequences.

The main factors in the fight against inflation are overcoming the economic recession, the payment crisis, the decrease in investment activity, and the formation of a stable market infrastructure. Of particular importance for the economy is the support of priority sectors of the national economy, stimulation of exports of products, a reasonable protectionist policy and the exchange rate policy, which will help increase the competitiveness of domestic goods.

Of great importance in anti-inflationary policy are the structural restructuring of the economy and its adaptation to the needs of the market through the competent conversion of the military-industrial complex, demonopolization and regulation of the activities of existing monopolies, stimulation of competition in production, distribution, the service sector, etc.

Under the current conditions, the decisive factor in the fight against inflation will be the possibility of restoring state structures for managing and controlling prices and incomes, the distribution and redistribution of material and financial resources, while pursuing a course towards the predominant use of free market prices.

Particular attention in the anti-inflationary policy should be given to the improvement \/ of the tax system:

– reducing the number of taxes levied;

– refusal to use inflation as a source of budget financing;

– revision of tax payments included in production costs that stimulate price growth (contributions to the pension fund, social insurance fund, employment fund, land payments, property tax, etc.);

- Changes in taxation methods.

An important direction in anti-inflationary policy is the further development and state regulation of the foreign exchange and financial markets, as well as the improvement of the mechanism for forming the exchange rate.

The basis of foreign economic activity continues to be the development of exports and the strengthening of its base, which requires effective export and foreign exchange control in order to stop the "flight" of capital abroad and ensure the timeliness and completeness of tax payments on these operations.

The restructuring of exports and imports can be of great importance for curbing inflation.

One of the decisive roles in the conduct of anti-inflationary policy is played by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which carried out monetary regulation. There is a need for direct management of credit emission, aimed at restoring economic ties and the banking system, and raising production. To curb inflation, it is necessary to support the investment activity of commercial banks, as is customary in world practice.

Successful implementation of anti-inflationary policy is possible only on the basis of the development of regulations governing all areas of market relations and the unconditional implementation of existing legislation

The main directions of anti-inflationary policy

Anti-inflationary policy is a set of measures for state regulation of the economy aimed at overcoming inflation. The two lines of anti-inflationary policy are deflationary policy (demand control) and income policy (cost control).

Deflationary policy is a method of limiting money demand through monetary and tax mechanisms by reducing government spending, increasing the interest rate on loans (“dear money policy”), increasing the tax pressure, limiting the money supply, freezing wages, growth sales of government securities. Feature: causes a slowdown in economic growth and even crisis phenomena. Income policy: freezing or capping price and wage increases. Anti-inflationary policies are chosen: if the goal - the containment of eq. growth, then a deflationary policy is pursued; if the goal is to revive and stimulate economic growth, then the policy of income; if the goal is to curb inflation at any cost, then both methods are used. To compensate for the loss of the population, full or partial indexation is carried out

Anti-inflationary measures: repayment of inflationary expectations; strengthening the purchasing power of the national currencies; reducing the budget deficit; restriction of export of currency abroad; stimulation of money savings; improvement of the taxation system; holding den. reforms

Anti-inflationary measures are aimed at restoring the balance between commodity and money markets. Anti-inflationary policy and monetary reforms are the main forms of stabilization of monetary circulation

14. The essence of the loan. Functions and laws of credit .

Credit (lat. сreditum - loan) - a loan in cash or commodity form on terms of repayment, payment and urgency. As an economic category, credit to the population is a certain type of social relations associated with the movement of value. This movement involves the transfer of funds - a loan for a while, and the borrower retains the right of ownership.

When analyzing the essence of a loan, three elements should be distinguished:

- subject;

- an object;

- loan interest.

The object of credit relations is the loaned value (loan capital).

FUNCTIONS OF CREDIT.

1. Redistributive function. 2. Cost saving function.

3. The function of replacing cash with credit.

4. The function of accelerating the concentration of capital.

5. Stimulating function.

Credit is one of the foundations for the development of a modern market economy. The emergence of credit relations should be sought in the sphere of exchange, and not in the sphere of production for domestic consumption. The economic basis of credit relations: circulation and turnover of funds (capital). Fluctuations, the formation of ebbs and flows of funds, fluctuations in the need for resources and sources of their coverage, the uneven circulation and circulation of capital cause the emergence of relationships that allow you to eliminate the negative consequences of fluctuations - this is a loan. Conditions for the possibility of a loan: 1. participants - legally independent entities materially guaranteeing the fulfillment of obligations arising from economic ties; 2. coincidence of interests of the participants.

Loan structure: subject (lender and borrower) and object. The lender is the one who gives the loan. Provides resources for a certain period for a fee (banks, enterprises). The borrower is the one who receives a loan and is obliged to return it with% (enterprises and organizations, state-in). The object of the loan is what is transferred from the lender to the borrower and returned back (loaned value). The loaned value follows the path: placing a loan - obtaining a loan by borrowers - using a loan - releasing resources (completing the circulation of value in the borrower's economy) - repaying a loan - receiving by the lender their funds, paying for them.

Functions and laws of credit.

Distributive function: accumulation of funds, placement of funds (i.e. redistribution of funds on a return basis). Manifested: providing temporary funds to enterprises and organizations to meet their need for financial resources. Redistributive - credit acts as a spontaneous macro-regulator of the economy, ensuring that the needs of economic entities for additional financial resources are met, but disproportions in the economy are possible, state regulation of the credit system is necessary (attracting credit resources to priority sectors). Levels of redistribution: enterprise - goods and cash; state-in - gross product, national income. The emission function is the replacement of cash with credit. Control function - monitoring the activities of borrowers and lenders, assessing creditworthiness and solvency, monitoring the principles of lending. The loan compensates for the temporary lack of own working capital, significantly accelerating the turnover of capital, and, consequently, saves distribution costs.

Credit laws: credit repayment - reflects the return of the loaned value to the creditor, exactly the one that was previously transferred for temporary use; balance of credit - with a loan, interaction with actually created values ​​is carried out; safety of the loaned value - funds do not lose not only their consumer properties, but also their value; urgency - a limited period of use of the loan; target character - for specific needs. The role of credit: the return provision of funds, the impact on the processes of production, sales and consumption of products and on the sphere of money circulation, the continuity of production processes, the satisfaction of temporary needs for funds, the expansion of production (to increase stocks and costs, fixed assets). The use of consumer credit allows you to quickly meet the various needs of the population. State credit isp-Xia to raise funds to cover budget expenditures.

3. Inflation: causes, measurement, socio-economic consequences. Anti-inflationary policy of the state.

Inflation(from lat. Inflation - swelling) - a state of the economy in which there is a depreciation of money (a drop in purchasing power) due to a significant excess of their quantity in circulation over the needs of trade and an increase in prices for goods and services.

main cause of inflation- violation of the law of monetary circulation.

This violation can be formally reflected using the well-known Fisher equation Мх V = Рх Q . If the mass of money in circulation (Mx V) exceeds the volume of real GNP (Px Q), then there is an increase in prices for goods and services.

Inflation factors:

external:

internationalization of economic relations- inflation in other countries affects through the prices of imported goods; the central bank of the country uses its additional currency to buy foreign currency from commercial banks;

depreciation of the national currency against the currencies of other countries– there is an increase in prices for imported goods; currency exchange requires additional money emission;

world economic crises- the decline in the production of exported products is affecting, prices for fuel and energy resources are rising (the economy of the Republic of Belarus is 90% dependent on imported goods);

state of the country's balance of payments;

currency and foreign trade policy of the country;

Internal:

government budget deficit– covering it with central bank loans dramatically increases the amount of money in circulation;

military spending- the budget deficit increases, and this leads to inflation; the military sector does not create a consumer product, but its employees increase effective demand;

expenditures for social purposes that are not adequate to the capabilities of the national economy- during a crisis, the government tries to support the population through wage indexation, various benefits, additional payments, etc., which increases the amount of money in circulation and increases inflation;

inflation expectations(the main factor of inflation, “flight from money”) increases demand and stimulates supply, rising prices, inflation expectations are included in contract payments (concluded from 1 year or more);

credit expansion- bank lending in excess of the country's needs, which causes the emission of non-cash money;

overinvestment- in certain sectors of the country (in agriculture);

structural disturbances in the economy between supply and demand, accumulation and consumption, income and expenditure.

Types of inflation:

demand- is manifested in the excess of demand over supply at full capacity utilization. Reasons: an increase in government orders, an increase in wages and an increase in the purchasing power of the population (a mass of money appears in circulation that is not backed by goods); rising prices and inflation occurs;

costs or offers- manifested as a result of rising prices due to an increase in production costs. Reasons: increase in prices for raw materials (primarily energy resources); actions of trade unions to raise wages, monopolistic or oligopolistic pricing of resources, etc. The increase in costs causes a reduction in aggregate supply and a further rise in prices.

Exists several types of inflation. First of all, those that are singled out from the standpoint of the rate of price growth (the first criterion), i.e. quantitatively:

1) Creeping (moderate) inflation, which is characterized by relatively low rates of price growth, up to about 10% or a few more percent per year. This kind of inflation is common in most developed market economies and does not appear to be unusual. Data for the 70s, 80s and early 90s. in the US, Japan and Western European countries, they are just talking about the presence of creeping inflation. The average inflation rate for the countries of the European Community was
in recent years, about 3-3.5%;

2) Galloping inflation(Price growth by 20-200% per year). Such
high rates in the 80s. observed, for example, in many
countries of Latin America, some countries of South Asia.
According to the calculations of the Central Bank of Russia, the consumer price index in our country in 1992 rose to 2200%. Consumer prices outpaced the growth of household income.

3) Hyperinflation - prices rise astronomically, divergence
prices and wages become catastrophic, the well-being of even the most affluent strata of society is destroyed, the largest enterprises become unprofitable and unprofitable (the IMF now takes a 50% rise in prices per month for hyperinflation).

Types of inflation in terms of the correlation of price increases for various commodity groups, i.e., according to the degree of balance of their growth:

a) balanced inflation;

b) unbalanced inflation.

With balanced inflation, the prices of various goods are unchanged relative to each other, and with unbalanced inflation, the prices of various goods are constantly changing relative to each other, and in different proportions.

Balanced inflation is not terrible for business. You only have to periodically raise the prices of goods: raw materials have risen in price by 10 times, and you accordingly increase the price of your final product. The risk of loss of profitability is inherent only to those entrepreneurs who are the last in the chain of price increases. These are, as a rule, manufacturers of complex products based on intensive external cooperative ties. The price of their products reflects the entire amount of the increase in prices of foreign cooperation, and it is they who risk delaying the sale of super-expensive products to the final consumer. It is dangerous to engage in this business; it is better not to purchase shares of the respective companies.

We have unbalanced inflation. The rise in prices for raw materials outpaces the rise in prices for final products, the cost of a component component exceeds the price of the entire complex device, etc.

Unbalanced inflation is a big problem for the economy. But it is even more terrible when there is no forecast for the future, there is no certainty even that the leading commodity groups of price growth will remain leaders tomorrow, and in a week, and in a year. It is impossible to rationally choose the areas of capital investment, calculate and compare the profitability of investment options. Industry cannot develop under such conditions; an industrial revival is unrealistic. Only short speculative-intermediary operations are possible, fertilized by spontaneous, unbalanced jumps in relative prices both in the sectoral and in the territorial aspect.

The combination of balanced and expected inflation does not cause economic harm, while unbalanced and unexpected inflation is especially dangerous, fraught with high costs of the adaptation plan.

The imbalance and unpredictability of inflation destroys the psychological stability of people who are less and less hopeful that prices will slow down.

Most of the developed countries gravitate towards moderate inflation, the growth of inflation from moderate through galloping to hyperinflation is not inevitable. Persistent state policy can, if not stop the rise in prices, then at least make it more expected or balanced. Unfortunately, little depends on individual enterprises. Only associations of industrialists, a powerful industrial lobby in parliaments, can have influence on the government.

as expected:

expected- is predicted by the government and the population for any period;

unexpected- there is a sudden jump in prices. In a situation where there were already inflationary expectations in the economy, the population, fearing the depreciation of their income, sharply increases the cost of acquiring goods and services, which distorts the real picture of demand in society and leads to a breakdown in the national economy. A sudden jump in prices could trigger further inflationary expectations, which will spur prices higher.

By the nature of the flow:

Open - a long rise in prices;

Suppressed - with firm "frozen" retail prices and a simultaneous increase in incomes of the population (commodity deficit and rising prices on the "black market").

Measurement of inflation. To do this, the prices for goods and services of the "consumer basket" at the end and beginning of the period (for example, a year) are summed up. Retail price index– determines their overall level in relation to the base period, expressed as a percentage. To determine inflation rate, it is necessary to subtract the price index of the base period from the index of this period and divide by the price index of the base (previous) period and multiply by 100.

"Rule of magnitude 70" allows you to determine the number of years for which the average price level will double - divide the number 70 by the annual inflation rate.

Economic consequences of inflation:

1) moderate– temporary recovery of the economy with a slight increase in prices and profit margins;

2) galloping and superinflation- significant damage is inflicted on the national economy, there is a "flight from money", i.e. the velocity of money circulation increases. Due to the rapid rise in prices, enterprises do not have enough revenue to pay, the inflationary spiral "prices–wage–costs - prices";

3) all other forms– crisis of mutual non-payments; replacing trade with barter makes exchange more difficult; damage to the state budget; the functioning of the monetary system is disrupted; reduction in production volumes.

Social Consequences of Inflation:

Deterioration of the life of the population:

Price increases significantly exceed real wages;

Incentives for work and its quality are falling;

The least protected segments of the population suffer the most;

The savings of the population are depreciating;

Social tension is on the rise.

The main directions of anti-inflationary policy:

Growth restraint public spending- the budget deficit is covered not by emission, but by internal public debt;

Permanent reduction in public funding for activities that can be outsourced to the private sector;

limiting the growth of the money supply and linking it with the growth rate of real GNP;

revenue regulation- limiting the growth of wages, other personal incomes with simultaneous freezing of prices, the use of indexation of wages and incomes;

reducing tariffs on imports and increasing it on exports- competition is created and the price is reduced (in the field of foreign trade);

appreciation of the national currency– import prices are lower and lower than the general price level;

denationalization, development of market relations, restructuring, conversion.

anti-inflation policy.

Anti-inflationary policy is divided into active and adaptive. An active policy is aimed at eliminating the causes that caused inflation, while an adaptive one is an adaptation to the conditions of inflation, mitigating its negative consequences.

The main levers for managing inflationary processes are in the hands of the state, since it is it that is responsible for the money supply, and, consequently, for the amount of money supply.

Government conducting an active policy has at its disposal a whole set of direct monetary levers that contribute to the cessation and containment of inflation. Among others, they should include: 1) control over the issue of money; 2) prevention of issuance financing of the state budget; 3) implementation of the current control of the money supply through the implementation of operations in the open market; 4) suppression of the circulation of money surrogates; 5) carrying out a monetary reform of the confiscation type.

The effectiveness of the first four levers can be ensured only in order to contain or prevent inflation. In conditions of hyperinflation, the only way out is monetary reform.

An anti-inflationary policy can be successful only if it is aimed at eliminating not only the manifestations of inflation (currency reform), but also the causes that give rise to and support it.

In accordance with the mechanisms of inflation discussed above, anti-inflationary measures are classified depending on the type of inflation they are aimed at combating.

Measures to combat demand-pull inflation: reduction of government spending; increase in taxes; reduction of the state budget deficit; transition to a tight monetary policy; stabilization of the exchange rate by fixing it. All of them ultimately come down to curbing aggregate demand.

An economy with a high level of inflation experiences these changes very painfully: the reduction in aggregate demand is accompanied by a decline in production and an increase in unemployment.

Measures against cost-push inflation quite diverse: curbing the growth of factor incomes and prices; the fight against monopoly in the economy and the development of market institutions; stimulation of production within the framework of the "supply economy". A policy directed against factor incomes and at the same time rising prices, the so-called policy of containing prices and incomes, can be implemented by freezing prices and wages and indirectly limiting their growth.

Strict containment of prices and incomes gives visible results in a fairly short period of time. However, the cost of such deflation is quite high, since at the same time market mechanisms for stabilizing the economy are “restrained”, disproportions and inflationary expectations are frozen.

An indirect restriction provides for either the establishment of a tripartite agreement "state-businessmen-trade unions", or the introduction of additional taxes on income and price growth.

Measures aimed at stimulating production within the framework of the "supply economy" should be singled out. The essence of this concept is that the government should carry out activities that contribute to a shift in the long-term aggregate supply curve, i.e. increase in natural output. In this case, the short-term curve AS will naturally shift to the right without moving upward.

The main elements of the theory of "supply-side economics" include: tax cuts; development of competition in the infrastructure sector; intensification of labor migration of the population through changes in social policy; money emission strictly within the expected increase in the natural level of output.

Adaptive Policy It is built on the premise that all subjects of a market economy (households, firms, the state) in their actions take into account inflation, primarily by taking into account losses from a decrease in the purchasing power of money.

This policy includes the following activities: indexation; agreements with employers and trade unions on the rate of growth of prices and wages. Indexing, i.e. change in nominal cash payments is of great importance for mitigating the effects of inflation due to the fact that it applies to recipients of fixed incomes, i.e. on those who lose the most from inflation. In addition, if indexation is sufficiently linked to inflation rates, then it can also have a downward effect on inflation expectations.