What's wrong with the dollar in Belarus? Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week: the Mexican wall is preventing its growth. A look at the Russian ruble from across the Belarusian border

If the US President fails to deal with Congress regarding the financing of the wall on the border with Mexico, the euro against the dollar may remain in the range of $1.14-1.15.

Instead of a correction in the euro exchange rate against the dollar, the forex market strengthened at the end of December. On December 28, the euro rose to 1.1441 dollars per euro.

The reason for the weakening of the dollar was mainly US President Donald Trump, who on December 24 criticized the head of the Fed Jerome Powell saying that the only problem American economy is the Fed raising its rates, causing the stock markets to crash.

Rumors have emerged that the president is going to dismiss the head of the Fed and the Ministry of Finance. December 26 Donald Trump declared that he would trust the heads of financial departments, but then it became known that his administration was preparing a meeting with Jerome Powell.

In this regard, many experts have doubts that the Fed will resist the president’s set and continue raising rates, which led to an increase in the euro against the dollar.

For example, Ned Rumpeltin, head of European currency strategy at TD Bank, believes that the euro will receive support from a strong balance sheet in the eurozone, and the euro will rise to $1.27 by the end of 2019. And strategists at Morgan Stanley predict that the euro will rise to $1.31 per euro.

At the same time, many experts remain skeptical about the prospects for the European currency. In particular, Neil Duane, an asset manager at Allianz GI, believes that due to political problems, the European Central Bank will not be able to raise rates at all, and the euro exchange rate on Forex may decline at the beginning of 2019.

Paul O'Connor, head of London-based asset management at Janus Henderson Group Plc, thinks much the same.

However, so far the stars are not in favor of the dollar. In addition to problems in the stock market and with the Federal Reserve, at the end of December, funding for the US government was partially suspended, as Donald Trump and the US Congress did not agree on the allocation of funds for the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico.

Congress will return to discuss this issue only on January 2, 2019. That is, the dollar exchange rate will remain under pressure for a long time. In this regard, Nordea Bank analysts predict that the euro exchange rate may continue to move towards the level of $1.15.

If the United States fails to resolve the issue of re-funding the government, it appears that this will not happen. Otherwise, the compression of dollar liquidity should make itself felt (see “Donald Trump is already warning about the possibility of a recession in the United States”), and the European currency will begin to decline back to the range of 1.13-1.14 dollars per euro.

The prerequisites for such conclusions are serious - well-aimed sanctions strikes from Western enemies are coming soon and certainly, plus a heap of insoluble problems has accumulated within the country itself.

In fact, ACRA admits that there is no way to avoid a recession; one can only hope for a scenario where everything will cost less. Or will the country fall below the bottom of 2015?

Sanctions and world problems in addition to them

First and an almost mandatory strike from the United States on Russian economy ACRA experts call a ban on American businesses buying Russian government bonds.

Firstly, because the sanctions have already been imposed so heartily that it is no longer possible to come up with something else on a large scale.

Secondly, the alternative is not to introduce any new sanctions, but simply maintain the existing ones. But this seems so unrealistic, judging by the voices coming from Congress, that they chose to include the “bad” option in the forecast.

Experts proceed from the fact that no one will buy the Russian government securities dumped by the Americans again, and this is a loss of 8-10% of the government debt.

Second a punitive measure should be a ban on US-controlled banks and financial institutions service Russian banks. Mere trifles, about 600 billion Russian rubles or about 1% of assets, can be directly frozen in accounts, because bankers have long been on the safe side.

However, these are just working capital, and in total 17-18 trillion Russian rubles pass through non-resident banks. Per month !

Blocking this direction will greatly complicate the work of the Russian financial sector, and will echo throughout the country's economy.

Finally, the most difficult There is also a scale factor in forecasting: a radical drop in hydrocarbon prices. For example, up to 40 dollars per barrel of oil instead of the current 84. This will shake up the entire world market, and not only Russia will suffer losses, but Russia for sure.

If only because the Central Bank, in one of its scenarios, had already set the price of oil at $35 per barrel and was prepared to act in such a situation.

A collapse in resource prices can cause anything, from a hypothetical “hot” war between the United States and China to the eruption of a large volcano and the blocking of transport routes - one should not assume that members of OPEC and others like it will be able to develop measures to restore the situation in a matter of days. Everyone will survive alone.

Basic scenario. Dollar at 64 RUR

Only the first type of sanctions will be applied to Russia. Everything will be relatively good, and the country's economy will simply slow down, to about 1.4% per year.

Sad speculators will see the dollar at 64 rubles, oil prices will also be fixed at this level, and inflation will fluctuate somewhere in the range of 4.4-4.6%

The Central Bank will keep the key rate at 7.5% and no major political and economic changes should be expected. They will explain from TV that this is not a recession, but simply a change in the pace of development - shouldn’t we drive at full speed all the time?

Alternative scenario. Dollar at 73 RUR

This is a combination of sanctions against Russia’s national debt with a man-made drop in resource prices. Low prices for hydrocarbons, and there is nothing more to trade, mean a sharp decline in state revenues.

As a result, a symbolic increase in GDP by 0.7% and the need for the Central Bank to raise the rate to 8.5%. Inflation will skyrocket to at least 5.7% and the government will have to work a lot to keep Russian ruble from falling below 73 rubles per dollar, and the population from unrest. But he will succeed.

A scenario aggravating the situation with man-made stress. Dollar at 83 RUR

Everything is very bad, but joyful, because those who started it - the “damned bourgeoisie” - also suffer. The fall in oil prices, the loss of investments in Russian government debt and interference in the work of hundreds of banks will ricochet across both the United States and Europe.

Yes, the dollar will trade at 83 rubles, and at the peaks of volatility even more, giving rise to bitter thoughts about the future among Russians tortured by 8% inflation

AND key rate will jump to 12%, and exhausted by unaffordable loans Russian business will fall into a coma, and therefore GDP will become a minus sign, -2.5%. But such horror is unlikely to surprise anyone, because with a high probability the whole world will plunge into a new global financial crisis.

A look at the Russian ruble from across the Belarusian border

After reading 3 forecasts from ACRA, you can come to the conclusion that some of them are optimistic, even in the worst case scenario. Meanwhile, none of the Russian or foreign analysts will undertake to make a forecast of what will happen if the United States nevertheless introduces a second (November) package of sanctions against Russia. Perhaps the situation cannot be predicted now anywhere, even in the United States.

But you can link the 3 forecasts that have appeared from ACRA to the Belarusian ruble, which directly depends on its eastern neighbor:

• firstly, in our country’s currency basket 50% belongs to the Russian ruble (30% to the dollar, 20% to the euro)
• secondly, Russia is the main partner of Belarus, and because of this it is beneficial for us that the dollar exchange rate in our country correlates with the Russian one. A strong dollar is not needed, first of all, by exporters, and it is they who attract currency to the country

• first scenario: in Russia the dollar is 64 RUR, as it is now! The dollar in Belarus will “move” in the corridor from 2 to 2.2 BYN
• second scenario: in Russia the dollar is 73 RUR, almost like a couple of weeks ago! The dollar in Belarus will “float” in the corridor from 2.2 BYN to 2.4 BYN
• third scenario: in Russia the dollar is 83 RUR...

Purely mathematically, in the case of the implementation of the 3rd scenario Russian currency, in relation to the American one, will depreciate by 30%, and in the most natural way can drive the dollar exchange rate in Belarus to 2.7 - 2.9 BYN per 1 dollar.

What else should you know?

1. The forecasts indicate the average exchange rate for the year. This means that the value, for example, 2.4 BYN per 1 dollar in 2019, indicates that during the year the rate can fluctuate from 2.2 to 2.6 BYN
2. The National Bank of Belarus has its own levers of influence on the situation, including: reducing the share of the Russian ruble in the basket of currencies and increasing the refinancing rate. These steps are unlikely, but possible
3. In many ways, ACRA’s scenarios, and our forecast based on these scenarios, are based on “several unknowns”: the volume of new US sanctions, oil prices, the behavior of the Central Bank of Russia in the changed situation. Therefore, a forecast is just a probable option. Not more!

No one can say yet what scenario and how it will be implemented. Perhaps there are fourth and fifth scenarios according to which events will develop. Wait and see!

Deal against euros and dollars. So, today at the auction the dollar rose to 2.1605 rubles, and the euro to 2.4977 rubles. Experts advise how Belarusians should behave in such a situation foreign exchange market- wait, go to the exchanger, buy goods or take some other action.

It will be possible to predict the exchange rate of major currencies to the Belarusian ruble only in three months, the economist believes Lev Margolin. If the second package of anti-Russian sanctions comes into force, this will cause a serious deterioration in the situation on the foreign exchange market. However, you can prepare for monetary instability now.

- A fall Belarusian ruble will continue, since Russia is our main external trading partner. If our currency strengthens, then Belarusian exports will become more and more expensive for Russians. Usually they react to this by reducing demand, which is like death for the country.

The expert believes that when shaping the exchange rate, the National Bank tries to take into account the interests of Belarusian exporters, the “so-called industrial lobby.”

— Despite the fact that our elders have left the government, I think that there is still someone to lobby for their interests. But another thing is that the National Bank can again increase inflation, which has already more or less decreased to acceptable levels.

According to the analyst, because of this, imported goods will “certainly become more expensive” with a time lag of 3-4 months. The price of all other goods will also change.

— The fact is that in our economy an imported component can be found in almost every product, even bakery products. In addition, fuel is becoming more expensive, and the transport component includes all industrial and consumer goods without exception. Therefore, difficult times await us.

The analyst advises purchasing in foreign currency whenever possible.

“I think that Belarusians are always ready for anything, because what is happening today has happened more than once. When the question is where to keep money - in a box or in a bank, I would recommend the first option. If hard times come, I do not rule out that restrictions on the use of foreign currency accounts may follow. Therefore, everything is very clear: keep it at home and don’t show it to anyone.

“The goods that we import for dollars have become more expensive and will continue to become more expensive”

According to senior analyst at Alpari Vadim Iosuba, this week the growth in the exchange rate of major currencies will be replaced by a decline. This is due to the fact that the seasonal demand for foreign currency will end.

“I expect rates to be lower by the end of the week than they were at the end of last week,” predicts Vadim Iosub. — I see the dollar exchange rate as 2.12 rubles, the euro as 2.46, and the Russian ruble as 3.07.

The analyst says that it is not worth running to exchange offices now either to buy currency or to return it.

- We need to stop running back and forth. You can run to buy, then run to hand over and, due to all this, have guaranteed losses. On each operation you will lose the margin between buying and selling. The most reasonable behavior today is to keep half of the money in Belarusian rubles on deposit at the highest possible rate (today it is 12.5%. - Ed.). The other half should be kept in dollars. But under no circumstances in Russian rubles. And, in my opinion, dollars will be preferable to euros in the foreseeable future.

Vadim Iosub believes that the fall of the Belarusian ruble against the currency basket will affect the cost of imported goods. But this will not happen instantly, since supply logistics take some time.

“Changes in prices on store shelves can be expected with a delay of at least a month,” says the expert. — It is worth paying attention to the fact that the Russian ruble, despite the growth, is still lower than it was at the beginning of the year. The dollar is growing. Those goods that we import for dollars have become more expensive and will continue to become more expensive. But Russian ones will be cheaper than at the beginning of the year.

“Foreign exchange rates will still rise”

Financial consultant at Teletradebel LLC Zhanna Kulakova also believes that running around exchangers during periods of increased volatility is a bad idea.

— I advise you to keep money in different currencies, even when there is no sign of an increase in the dollar exchange rate. Then you won’t have a headache due to currency fluctuations,” the financial consultant is sure.

Regarding exchange rates in the near future, Zhanna Kulakova says that this is an equation with many unknowns.

— Here we need to take into account the situation with Russia, but there it is impossible to predict anything. We need to take into account the euro-dollar exchange rate, our internal problems and the risks that we also have,” the expert lists. — I think that the dollar exchange rate of 2.20 in our foreseeable future is a very real prospect. Optimism on Russian market not visible. And until a decision is made on the most unpleasant potential sanctions that could affect Russian government debt, systemically important banks and strategically important companies, the Russian ruble may remain under pressure. And it certainly affects our market too.

Zhanna Kulakova is inclined to believe that foreign exchange rates will still rise

— Considering that the Russian ruble exchange rate in our market is rather low - 3.09 today, I see potential for its further growth. I admit that all three foreign currencies will rise in price, and accordingly, our ruble will fall towards the basket. By the end of this week, the dollar may rise in price to 2.20 rubles, the euro - 2.50-2.55, the Russian ruble - we will adhere to the range indicated by the Minister of Economy - 3.1-3.2, predicts Zhanna Kulakova.

According to the financial consultant, changes in exchange rates have already affected the prices of imported goods.

— Our ruble has strengthened against the Russian ruble for a long time. And the further the ruble exchange rate falls in our market, the more often people have the question of what to buy in Russia. This affects exports, imports, and the balance of foreign trade,” explains the expert. — The rise in the dollar and euro exchange rates will affect imports. Import prices are rising quite quickly. What we import for dollars and euros may become more expensive for us, and what we import for Russian rubles may become cheaper.

Over the past couple of weeks, the dollar and euro have been growing with varying degrees of success. Yesterday they had their courses, and I became a little worried about what was happening. Will the dollar be able to return to the levels at the beginning of the year, when its rate dropped to 1.95 rubles? Or will the US currency continue to grow and we will see new records? We are talking with Alpari senior analyst Vadim Iosub.

Vadim, yesterday the dollar and euro made us worry, jumping to annual highs. Today the dollar has slowed down, and the euro has begun to decline altogether, can we breathe out?

The dollar's rise will not end soon. It will continue to rise in price,” explains the senior analyst. “It’s not necessarily that he will grow every day, as he has been doing for the last two and a half weeks.” But the direction of growth will remain. This, as we have already said, has nothing to do with what is happening in Belarus, with our economy. There are two external points here: firstly, the growth of the dollar against the vast majority of currencies of countries with emerging markets. Almost no one could avoid this.

Second point. Even if this global trend slows down, the dollar will continue to rise against the Russian ruble. Because of the sanctions stories, which, apparently, will become tougher. Bills of American financial sanctions are being actively discussed, which include bans on the purchase of government debt and a ban on working with Russian state-owned banks.

It is not yet clear which options will be included in the laws, but something will be included. That is, sanctions will become tougher, the dollar will rise against the Russian ruble. And the growth of the dollar against the Russian ruble, due to our connection to the Russian economy, will also mean an increase in the dollar against the Belarusian ruble. True, on a smaller scale. That is, there will be some temporary corrections - the dollar may end up declining for some week, but the long-term trend is towards growth. I would not expect the dollar to seriously decline against the Belarusian ruble.

- Are there any forecasts regarding the maximum exchange rate by the end of the year?

No one can give such forecasts. And the problem here is that it is not clear what sanctions there will be, it is not clear how the Russian ruble will react to this. And without this, predicting some numbers is an attempt to hit the sky with your finger. No forecast can make sense now.

Tell me, our average exchange rate in the budget for this year is set at 2.038 Belarusian rubles, but it has already exceeded this mark for a long time. What consequences could there be for our economy?

Actually, not that strong. Now the rates that are used in budgeting are not exact planned forecasts that need to be achieved, they are simply some kind of indicative. Since we have dollar receipts and expenses in our budget, and the budget is compiled in rubles, we need some kind of technical forecast in order to convert these currency flows into Belarusian rubles.

On the one hand, a rising dollar will mean that dollar imports will become more expensive for us - just dollar imports, not all of them. It will be more difficult for enterprises to service dollar loans, and for the budget to service dollar external debt. At the same time, purely theoretically, on the dollar markets our products become cheaper, and therefore more competitive in price.

How will the rise in the dollar affect prices and will it affect the government's plans to contain inflation at 6%?

If we talk about the impact on inflation, it is worth remembering the efforts of the National Bank to de-dollarize. This was done just for cases like this. You can remember the times 10-15 years ago, then, in fact, all our prices were in dollars (I’m not talking about apartments and cars), stupidly everything on the market - from clothes to groceries - was tied to the dollar. And the rise of the dollar meant an automatic rise in prices by the same amount.

Now it has been possible to largely decouple prices from the exchange rate, and therefore the growth of the dollar will not automatically lead to a proportional increase in inflation. In theory, an increase in dollar prices will lead to an increase in the goods that the country buys in dollars. But at the same time, most likely, not immediately and immediately, but with a delay (taking into account logistics, the fact that new batches of goods will be purchased, and so on). Relatively speaking, this will happen in a quarter.

Those goods that we buy for the Russian ruble will not be affected by the growth of the dollar. What is produced in Belarus will be affected indirectly and partially by the growth of the dollar. There are some costs that are associated with the dollar exchange rate (electricity, fuels and lubricants, etc.), and there are also those that do not react in any way to the growth of the dollar (salaries, taxes, and so on). Therefore, there will be some pressure on prices, but you need to understand that a dollar increase of 5% or 10% will not mean at all that all prices or prices on average will increase by the same amount.

It's understandable that people are afraid. Everyone remembers the price increases in 2011 and 2014. According to surveys National Bank, devaluation expectations of the population are quite strong...

But even in 2011, prices did not rise in direct proportion to the growth of the dollar. The exchange rate has almost tripled this year, and prices have approximately doubled. Inflation there did not equal devaluation. Actually, this was the case at the end of 2014 - beginning of 2015.

- Which course is the most appropriate for our economy? Is there such a concept in principle?

There is no such thing. There are different actors in the market and they have different interests. Importers, those who pay debts in dollars, want the dollar to be cheaper, exporters, those who receive salaries pegged to the dollar or pay debts in dollars, want it to be more expensive. In fact, a very important fundamental point is that you need to understand that there are no correct, adequate and mathematically verified courses.

Moreover, these serious currency crises of our past years were entirely caused by the fact that the authorities tried, firstly, to calculate this adequate exchange rate, and secondly, they tried to adhere to this course. It always ended in currency crises. The meaning of the normal functioning of the market is a few banal things. Firstly, the cost of a currency is like the cost of potatoes, sausage, anything - it depends on supply and demand. Secondly, both supply and demand are constantly changing, followed by the exchange rate. Accordingly, the exchange rate is determined by the balance of this supply and demand.

If we declare any one exchange rate adequate and correct, then we will be faced with a shortage of currency on the market, as has happened more than once. That is, it seems that we have announced an adequate rate, but it is impossible to buy currency at this adequate rate. So this situation means that the course is just inadequate.

- Could our economy not be subject to this global process and in what case?

No highly developed country is immune from exchange rate volatility. Take even the two coolest regions - the USA and the Eurozone: the exchange rate of the dollar and euro in these territories is not stable. They rise and fall. During the period since the introduction of the euro, it was worth 82 American cents at its minimum, and 1 dollar 60 American cents at its maximum. That is, even the two strongest currencies in the world, which correspond to the two strongest economies, can fluctuate twofold to each other in a short historical period. This is the clearest illustration that neither the dollar nor the euro is immune from falling.

Theoretically, there are such “stable” currencies, where the exchange rate is fixed. We had this before too. All over the world, currencies fell and rose, but here there was an island of stability. It all ended with a threefold devaluation. That is, you can try to build a stable currency - to isolate yourself from the whole world, not to import and export, not to let foreign investors in, not to invest in other countries yourself, to rely on your own strength. This is what Juche can do. The exchange rate will probably be stable for some time. But, for example, the same North Korea Relying on its own strength, it achieved that mainly the Chinese yuan circulates throughout the country. Nobody needs their own stable North Korean won.

Venezuela tried to rely on its own strength, where the real exchange rate differs from the official one by 30 times. Even in the worst times, the difference between the official and unofficial exchange rates was twofold. Iran tried to live in isolation from the whole world, with huge resources and oil reserves, but even there it all ended in severe devaluation. That is, in reality, it is impossible to be completely independent from the world, just as it is impossible to have a fixed exchange rate.

In normal countries, the exchange rate will float - this is natural and there is no escape from it. The rate depends on the economy, and this is a living organism. It rises and falls, imports and exports rise and fall, inflation changes, and the exchange rate changes depending on this.

In September of this year, a significant event occurred on the foreign exchange market of Belarus: the volume of net sales of foreign currency by the population collapsed to almost zero, which led to fatal consequences for the ruble exchange rate.

It seemed that the times when any hint of devaluation of the Belarusian ruble led to a rush of demand for currency from individuals were long gone. However, the results of transactions with foreign currencies on the domestic market of the Republic of Belarus in September of this year show that this pattern of behavior may return.

Fears of devaluation revived again

If you study the dynamics of supply and demand foreign currency individuals, then at first glance, you might think that this is not so. Indeed, residents of our country bought $9.7 million less in cash currency in September than in August, and more non-cash currency, but only by $4.9 million. In total, therefore, the volume of foreign currency purchases in September even decreased by $4.8 million and amounted to $705.7 million. This is a high value, but not at all a record, for example, in December 2017 individuals purchased currencies worth $719.6 million.

However, a completely different picture emerges if we compare the demand for currency in September of this year with September of last year. The contrast here is striking: individuals purchased $107.1 million more in cash currency last month, and $70.5 million more in non-cash currency than in September a year ago. This, of course, is not yet rush demand, but a step towards it. As for the low change in the volume of foreign currency purchases in September of this year compared to August, the situation was distorted by the seasonal decrease in demand for foreign currency in September due to the end of the holiday season.

A serious change also occurred with the sale of foreign currency by the population. In recent years, a new stereotype of behavior has emerged among the residents of our country: after a sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate, people rushed not to buy, but to sell dollars, in order to purchase imported goods before they went up in price or the ruble exchange rate recovered. This is exactly what the residents of Belarus did in May 2018, and this is exactly what they acted in August of the same year. But in September the situation changed again and people returned to the old standard of behavior: they began to hold the currency.

Namely, in September of this year, individuals sold cash currency to banks by $120.5 million less than in August, and non-cash currency- $29.9 million less. That is, the total supply of currency from the population decreased by 150.4 million dollars and amounted to 712.5 million dollars. This is the minimum value for this parameter since February of this year.

What caused such a radical change in the mood of the residents of Belarus is still unknown. Whether all the prudent residents of our country have already made the purchases of imported goods they need, or they decided that if they wait a little, they will be able to make purchases even more profitable, it is unknown. Perhaps there has been a change in the assessment of the severity of the crisis that has befallen Russia, and with it our country. People began to understand that this was not a short-term collapse, as before, but the beginning of a long-term trend (see).

It is possible that the change of government in the Republic of Belarus also influenced the mood of the population. Moreover, it announced its intention to increase wages in the public sector, and people still remember how previous periods of wage growth ended – with devaluation.

Whatever explains the change in behavioral stereotypes of Belarusians on the foreign exchange market, they turned out to be fatal for the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. The supply of currency from the population in September still exceeded the demand for it, but only by 6.8 million dollars. And this despite the fact that in August individuals sold currencies in net terms for $152.4 million, and in general for January-September - for $1.082 billion. Thus, the foreign exchange market in September lost the traditional influx of currency from individuals, therefore, in conditions of excess demand for currency over supply on the part of business entities - residents of the Republic of Belarus, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against a basket of currencies from the dollar, euro and Russian ruble collapsed.

Thus, we come to the conclusion that although the volume of foreign currency purchases by individuals in September was at a fairly moderate level by historical standards, it was the purchases of foreign currency by individuals that led to the observed collapse in the Belarusian ruble exchange rate.

Enterprises showed restraint

Of course, there are many reasons for this phenomenon. In particular, Belarusian enterprises also had a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, the balance of purchase/sale of foreign currency in September 2018 amounted to $184.4 million in favor of purchase. But their influence in this case was not decisive, since in September 2017 this parameter was equal to $187.8 million, and such a collapse of the ruble as in 2018 was not observed. The excess of demand for currency over its supply on the part of enterprises in September is a common occurrence.

As for business entities - non-residents of the Republic of Belarus, in September of this year they sold currencies in net terms for $32.9 million, which significantly exceeded the September 2017 figure of $9.9 million. But this is not enough to satisfy the demand for currency from residents.

Thus, the change in the behavior pattern of Belarusians on the foreign exchange market in September turned out to be the decisive factor that determined the dynamics of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate against a basket of currencies consisting of the dollar, euro and Russian ruble.

The question is how long the current sentiment will last. Unfortunately, we do not conduct operational sociological surveys of the population that could clarify the situation. But it’s hardly worth expecting that the change in mood will last long. After all, the main factor determining the supply of currency from individuals is its sale in order to obtain funds for everyday life, that is, people will not be able to refrain from selling currency for a long time. As for the purchase of currency by the population, the emergence of rush demand seems unlikely - for this something extraordinary must happen.

It can be expected that as the dollar increases, there will be fewer and fewer importers willing to buy it, which will balance the supply and demand of the currency in the country’s domestic market and lead to stabilization of the ruble exchange rate against the basket. However, this process is unlikely to proceed smoothly, and there is a significant risk of increased ruble exchange rate volatility. The value of the currency basket may rise to its equilibrium value (with zero net sales of currency by the population) and higher, this will lead to an increase in the volume of currency sales by the population, and this will cause a decrease in the value of the basket. And a new cycle of exchange rate changes will begin.

That is, chaos may begin: quite significant fluctuations in the value of the basket (up to 10-20%) will occur over the course of several months, without any objective economic grounds in the form of changes in currency flows from foreign trade and capital movements abroad.

Thus, continued growth of the dollar and euro this year is quite likely. But after individuals return to their previous pattern of behavior and resume net sales of currencies, which is sure to happen over time, the value of the currency basket and the dollar will collapse again. Perhaps this will happen at the beginning of next year, as during the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. But, of course, a lot depends on how Belarusian enterprises behave in such conditions. They can take the side of the population and aggravate the collapse of the ruble, or they can increase the supply of currency, which will stop the weakening of the ruble.

In any case, the situation for the Belarusian ruble is now unfavorable: its exchange rate is determined not so much by objective factors as by subjective assessments of the situation on the part of the population and enterprises of the Republic of Belarus.