Euro exchange rate for the summer: experts gave their forecast. Euro exchange rate for the summer: experts gave their forecast Will the euro fall by summer

Extremely precarious situation Russian economy makes many Russians nervous, and, naturally, most are worried about the question: how much will the European currency be worth next year? According to previous events, in 2017 the euro exchange rate will first increase and then decrease, according to the latest analyzes, to 69 rubles. According to the forecasts of many analysts, by the end of next year we can expect a significant strengthening of the exchange rate. Russian currency.

The real state of the Russian economy

Heated debates are flaring up around the current state of the Russian economy among not only experts in our country, but around the world. Due to a sharp decline in GDP and an increase in prices for almost all products and services, the cost of even essential products has increased significantly. The exchange rate of the Russian currency has not been stable for two years now; the value of the dollar and euro regularly update their historical highs, which also greatly affects financial condition residents of the country. It is important to know that the level of GDP is the main indicator of the economic growth of any state and the well-being of its citizens. In the current year of GDP The Russian Federation fell by 1%, but even such a drop significantly affected the income of almost all categories of citizens.

One of the main factors that determines the exchange rate of the ruble was the price of oil, because it is no secret that the Russian economy has always relied on “black gold”, and the fall in its value has had a significant impact on economic development countries.

The last factor that significantly undermined the exchange rate of the Russian currency was the sanctions imposed by some Western countries. If they are canceled in 2017, this fact will affect the strengthening of the stability of the exchange rate of our currency.

What will happen to our currency?

The forecast of most Russian and Western analysts is not reassuring; a stable euro exchange rate cannot yet be expected. At the beginning of 2017, the European currency will remain at 73-74 rubles; by the end of the year, the Russian currency will strengthen, which will reduce the value of the euro to 68-69 rubles. The Ministry of Economic Development believes that in January the European currency may cost about 76 rubles, and if oil prices drop significantly, a more significant fall in the ruble can be expected.

Some Western analysts believe that next winter we can expect the European currency to soar to 80 rubles. Do not forget that a rate such as the euro/ruble is largely influenced by the euro/dollar currency ratio. Thus, according to the forecast of the largest Swiss bank Credit Suisse, at the beginning of 2017, the ratio of the last pair will approach one, but then the dollar will strengthen, which will lower the ratio to 0.85. Therefore, it is possible that the European currency may cost less than the American one; according to the same analysts, a ratio of 70/75 rubles is possible, respectively.

Events in the economic sphere are developing so rapidly that making accurate forecasts of the euro exchange rate for next year is quite problematic. Many Western economists agree that in 2017 the ruble will continue to fall, and the value of other foreign currencies will continue to increase against the Russian currency.

Although the Russian Government gives completely different forecasts, the authorities assure that in 2017 there will be a significant increase in the ruble exchange rate. According to Russian politicians, the economy of our country should come out of recession, that the peak of decline in the economic sphere has already been overcome, and will begin in 2017 the economic growth.

Accordingly, there will be growth Country's GDP and the strengthening of the ruble.

The World Bank shares the same opinion, whose forecast is that the Russian economy has already reached its “bottom”, the course is set for production, and only economic growth is expected in the future. However, these calculations were made only on the condition that the price per barrel of oil did not fall below $53 in 2017.

And the conclusion of many players in the oil market was that the price of “black gold” will only continue to decline at the beginning of next year. Some analysts even believe that oil could fall again to $39-40. According to the vice-president of Lukoil, if oil prices begin to rise, then we can expect the ruble to strengthen against the euro, even at 55 rubles.

Morgan Stanley's opinion

The forecast of the largest American analytical agency Morgan Stanley for the Russian economy is not reassuring; according to American experts, in the first quarter of next year the cost of one euro will exceed 90 rubles. However, there is no need to worry economic analysis influenced by many both external and internal factors, so experts often revise their opinions.

However, we should not forget that the EU is highly dependent on the import of Russian gas, as well as on the export of its goods to the territory of the Russian Federation, so we should not expect the ruble to fall for too long. Also, some negative forecasts may significantly affect the exchange rate of the European currency, for example, that Germany may return the German mark to circulation, and Greece and a number of other countries, following the UK, will leave the Eurozone.

But no matter what happens, due to the unstable situation throughout the world, it is difficult to make absolute predictions as to what the value of the euro will be in relation to the Russian currency.

The euro exchange rate forecast for the summer of 2017 allows for a new period of volatility in European currency quotes. Political uncertainty, coupled with economic difficulties, will put pressure on the euro's position.

Experts expect the euro to depreciate, but optimists admit that currency quotes will stabilize.

Growing Uncertainty

This summer, the euro's position will be under significant pressure, experts predict. After the results of the presidential elections, France may change its position regarding the future of the EU. In particular, analysts do not rule out repeating the example of Great Britain, which will be a new shock for the European Union. In addition, there will be elections in Germany in the near future, which could also change the political landscape of the EU.

Victories for Eurosceptics in the largest EU countries could threaten the continued existence of the union. In particular, the problem associated with the placement of migrants and the preservation of the Schengen zone will worsen. At the same time, the European Union has not yet decided on the future format of the divorce process with Foggy Albion, which also increases the degree of political uncertainty.

The UK is moving towards implementing Brexit, which is leading to aggravation of contradictions with the EU. The most controversial issue remains the future format of trade relations. In addition, the parties continue to discuss the issue of financial compensation, which can reach an impressive size.

The economic situation in the eurozone is also far from ideal. Despite economic growth of 1.6-1.8%, inflation indicators continue to lag behind the target value. At the same time, the banking sector needs large-scale financial injections that will help close capital gaps.

The ECB's policy remains unchanged. The regulator maintains its quantitative easing policy, which supports the eurozone economy. In addition, the regulator is ready to keep the rate at a record low level throughout 2017, counting on improving macroeconomic indicators.

In such conditions, the euro's position remains vulnerable, analysts say. However, the European currency may avoid depreciation if a favorable forecast materializes.

Confrontation between the euro and the dollar

In the summer of 2017, the forecast for the euro/dollar exchange rate assumes a further strengthening of the American currency. The Fed rate hike remains a support factor for the dollar, which will increase the influx of speculative capital. At the same time, the American economy maintains positive dynamics, which will also have an impact on the movement of currency quotes.

Societe Generale experts expect the European currency to weaken after the presidential elections in France. Quotes of the euro against the dollar will reach the range of 1.00-1.05 dollars/euro, which will be the minimum value this year.

A strong dollar will hinder the implementation of Donald Trump's policies and could worsen performance American economy. As a result, the Fed may take actions aimed at weakening the dollar, according to VTB24 analysts. Bank representative Alexey Mikheev allows the exchange rate to rise to 1.20 dollars/euro in the summer, which could provoke a new stage of currency wars on the world market.

Euro/ruble quotes will remain highly volatile. Previously, the government allowed the domestic currency to weaken by 5-10%, which corresponds to fundamental factors. In addition, the likely collapse of the oil market will provoke a devaluation of the ruble.

Giveaway game

The economic bloc is concerned about the excessive strengthening of the ruble, which is holding back the growth of the Russian economy. Representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development admit a new weakening of the Russian currency in the near future, which will help eliminate existing imbalances.

With the base forecast, which assumes oil prices remaining in the range of 50-55 dollars per barrel, the euro exchange rate will fluctuate at 65-68 rubles per euro. However, in the summer, oil market trends may change, which will affect the movement of currency quotes. Experts are considering several scenarios for the oil market, which depend on the future of agreements to limit oil production.

Optimists expect the price of “black gold” to rise to 55-60 dollars per barrel, which will keep the euro exchange rate at 60 rubles per euro. To do this, the main market participants must extend the conditions for limiting oil production, which are the key to a balanced market. The parties must agree on the final version of the agreement in May, but experts note contradictions that could prevent the quotas from being extended.

Forces Russians to keep funds in foreign currency and closely monitor its dynamics on the world market. After the events in the United States, more and more citizens are thinking about transferring their savings to euros. What are the opinions of analysts about the future of the currency, and what can change its exchange rate?

In 2017 more profitable currency for storing funds can become euro

What affects the euro exchange rate in Russia?

First, events in the region of use. Until recently, Europe prided itself on relative economic stability. Britain's exit from the EU dealt a blow to its welfare and the position of the euro. Future monetary unit largely depends on how trade between Albion and mainland Europe develops over the next few years. So far, the prospects are unclear, so it is difficult to name the exact exchange rate of the euro.

Secondly, the position of the European currency depends on the position of the American one. If the dollar weakens, the euro strengthens and vice versa. In the first days after the US elections National currency noticeably lost ground. However, financiers see this as a market reaction to Trump's surprise victory (most investors were for Clinton), rather than the start of a long-term trend.

The Danish investment bank Saxo Bank, known for accurate forecasts of economic events, assumes that by the end of 2016 the position of the American currency will strengthen again, but will weaken within a year. Ukrainian economist Alexander Okhrimenko believes that the euro and dollar rates on the world market will be equalized by the end of 2017.

The euro exchange rate in Russia is affected by the price of oil and Western sanctions

Thirdly, the value of foreign currencies is influenced by the current state of the Russian economy. Domestic financiers hope that by the end of 2016 it will come out of recession (a gradual but relentless decline). Western sanctions also play a leading role in this process. Until the price of “black gold” reaches at least $80 per barrel and sanctions are lifted, the euro exchange rate for the Russian Federation will not look rosy.

Western experts believe that in 2017 oil will cost, at best, 60 dollars, and the Ministry of Economic Development has set the mark at 40 conventional units. It is also too early to talk about lifting sanctions. Russians hope that the new US president will establish contact with Vladimir Putin and contribute to their abolition. This idea is also supported by Saxo Bank analysts.

Financial analysts make different assumptions about the future of the European currency. The most optimistic forecasts belong to the American banking holding Morgan Stanley. Its experts foresee the economic decline of the United States, which will not allow the Federal Reserve to raise the dollar rate. The successful work of European banks will also contribute to the strengthening of the euro. The value of the currency in 2017 will be approximately 80 rubles.

RBC analysts believe that euros can be purchased for 75 rubles. The Economic Forecasting Agency (APECON) gives more modest figures: 70-73 rubles throughout the year, 67-69 in the summer. But these are just preliminary forecasts. The exchange rate changes every day, and it is impossible to know in advance what will contribute to its rise or fall.

What do the stars say?

Many people make financial decisions with the advice of psychics. The famous Russian predictor Pavel Globa predicts the collapse of the United States, and therefore the dollar, in 2017. His forecast is based on a prophecy about the 44th President of the United States, who will lead the state to decline. The astrologer advises transferring funds into eurocurrency, the rate of which will remain stable.

The Russian currency meets Friday evening at levels ₽57.0525/USD And ₽62.2300/euro. The weakening of the ruble by 15:56 Moscow time is 0.02 and 26.2 kopecks, respectively. Oil, meanwhile, is trying to storm the 51-dollar mark ($50.98 at 16:13 Moscow time; +21 cents). The reason for the “subsidence” of the Russian monetary unit is a new wave of verbal interventions on the part of the heads of domestic monetary departments. Thus, the day before, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, admitted the possibility of the financial regulator intervening in trading in order to bring volumes to $500 billion, and the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin, “marked” himself with another statement about “fundamentally justified” levels of RUR/USD in relation to current oil prices. According to the minister’s position, at today’s cost of a barrel, “green” should cost at least RUB 62.00-63.00. The opinions of Russian analysts about the prospects for the ruble differ from Oreshkin’s position.

— This news [about the possibility of the Bank of Russia intervening in trading—ed.] is not new for the market. If such operations are nevertheless announced, the regulator will most likely prefer to act extremely carefully, minimizing the impact on the exchange rate. Therefore, Nabiullina’s comments had almost no impact on the quotes of ruble pairs. Today we expect consolidation of RUR/USD near ₽57.00,” said Dmitry Polevoy from ING.

The forecasts for the summer also do not contain the levels voiced by Oreshkin.

— The barrel will remain the main factor influencing the national currency quotes. The growth in shale production and the increase in reserves in the United States should not present any special surprises: the majority of OPEC participants have a positive attitude towards the idea of ​​extending the agreements reached in November 2016. This means that over the coming months there will be some stability in the energy market. In the absence of geopolitical force majeure, the ruble during the summer months will balance in the range of ₽56.00-57.00/dollar. and ₽62.00-63.00/euro,” believes Mikhail Mashchenko from eToro.

— The key sources of influence, in our opinion, will be oil prices, rates in the US and Russia, as well as currency dynamics developing countries. Personally, I will not be surprised by the strengthening of the ruble, despite the “black gold” and other factors. The model we compiled is based on the levels of ₽54.40/USD. and ₽55.60/USD. One of these values ​​was almost reached. In the event of a negative development of events, the main benchmarks for the Russian currency will be ₽60.00/dollar. and ₽64.40/USD,” Roman Blinov, an analyst at the International Financial Center, shared his vision of the situation.

— Ruble support will remain. The fact is that the difference between rates in Russia and developed countries is still significant, and a gradual downward trend will lead to an increase in yield due to an increase in the exchange rate value of bonds. The risks of volatility in the carry trade are now minimal, since few people doubt the extension of the OPEC+ pact. Our forecast for RUR/USD at the end of May allows for the possibility of testing the level of ₽55.30,” explained Timur Nigmatullin, a representative of Finam Investment Group.

What happens to the ruble in mid-July arouses great interest in exchange rates in Russia and forecasts of this rate for the near and relatively distant future. This interest is quite understandable and fair - the percentage of imported goods in Russian stores is still quite high, so Russians, even without buying or selling currency, depend on how much it costs at one time or another. Euro exchange rate forecast for August 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts about what will happen to the euro in the second half of summer.

Euro exchange rate forecast for the second half of July 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts

Before turning to forecasts for the euro exchange rate in Russia for August 2017, let’s find out what analysts think about the exchange rate in the second half of July. Let us recall that at the end of June we presented the forecast made at that time from experts from the APECON agency regarding the euro exchange rate in the current month.

According to , at the end of the first ten days of this month, we should expect the euro exchange rate to be about 69.22 rubles. In reality, the rate was equal to 68.77 rubles, however, the very next day it actually amounted to 69.20 rubles. That did not prevent the euro from sharply falling against the ruble to the rate of 68.36 rubles, established as the official rate at the close of the second week of the month.

A fresh forecast for the euro exchange rate for July 2017 in Russia from the same experts suggests that the third week of the month will close with the euro exchange rate 67.83 rubles, and July will end at around 69.09 rubles. That is, by the end of the month, the euro is expected to begin to strengthen against the Russian ruble.

Euro exchange rate forecast for August 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts from July 14

Of course, the longer-term the forecast made by experts, the less accurate it is. Therefore, it is worth keeping in mind their version of how events will develop in the future, but periodically you should study updated forecasts that are made closer to the beginning of the reporting period.

If we talk about the forecast for the euro exchange rate for August 2017 in Russia, the forecasts of experts from the same APECON agency, made by them in mid-July, are as follows:

• August 1 the exchange rate of the single European currency is likely to be 69.09 rubles.
• 10 August and the euro exchange rate may already be 72.07 rubles.
• Forecast for August 20 has not yet been done, but the expected dynamics indicate that at the end of the second ten days of the month the euro will cost in Russia about 73 rubles.
• By early September Analysts expect a return to ruble positions – up to 69.96 rubles per euro.

At the moment, it is unknown what exactly experts think about the second half of August. It is quite difficult to predict whether the euro will really fall in price as rapidly as it rose in price in the first half of August. We will turn to fresh expert forecasts closer to the onset of August.

Euro exchange rate forecast for August 2017 in Russia: expert forecasts from July 23

A week and a half after the previous forecast, the situation with the euro/ruble exchange rate has become much more complex and interesting. If on July 13 the ratio of currency values ​​in the euro/dollar pair was 1.1392 (and the position around 1.14 was quite stable), then against the backdrop of good economic news from Europe, the euro began to quickly rise in price against the dollar. On July 23, the situation is completely different - the euro is already worth 1.1663 dollars.

In recent days, the euro has been rising in price against the dollar faster than the ruble, so the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against these two currencies has become multidirectional.

When making long-term forecasts, experts talk about a possible rise in price of the euro against the dollar to 1.6, that is, in fact, the increase may turn out to be one and a half times. This prospect makes the single European currency an attractive investment vehicle. As for forecasts for August, the updated version of the forecast from APECON analysts looks like this:

• August 1 the euro will cost about 70.39 rubles.
• 10th of August the course may be 71.19 rubles per euro.
• August 20 – 72.27 rubles per euro.
• By the end of August course possible 71.49 rubles for a dollar.