Changes in economic policy are the main channel of influence of sanctions on the Russian economy. The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and companies

Against the backdrop of mass hysteria around the situation in Ukraine and speculation regarding the current problem, rarely can anyone take an objective look at the real state of affairs.

And, in particular, the one-time impact of sanctions on the Russian economy.

The media themselves, fulfilling the social order, also help to create confusion. This statement is true both in relation to Russia, the USA, Ukraine and the countries of the European Union. But this is politics, where everyone praises his own and denigrates his “enemies.” Let's try to step aside from political squabbles and look exclusively at the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. This material will not discuss blacklists of political and other figures, since their creation is directly related to political squabbles between heads of state.

Key sanctions that impacted the Russian economy

1. Restriction of access to a number of Russian banking organizations to cheap credit products. Consequences of sanctions for Russia: an increase in loan rates (in particular, against the background of an increase in the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in order to reduce the rate of decline national currency).
2. Prohibition regarding a number Russian companies, associated with limited access to financing from foreign banks and restrictions on the purchase of their products. For example, Rosneft and Gazpromneft. Consequences: support for companies from the federal budget, which contributed to the acceleration of inflation processes and rising prices.
3. Most EU countries prohibit investing in Russian companies and acquiring shares in them. Consequences: an increase in prices for the products of companies operating with the involvement of foreign capital. Examples include the following organizations: the Sirius company, the Almaz-Antey concern, the GAZ and AvtoVAZ automobile plants and others.
4. The outflow of foreign capital, which began in March 2014 and continues to this day. Rising taxes (on real estate, on mining, excise taxes on alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and so on), trends towards increasing the retirement age, etc. According to most expert analysts, it was the outflow of capital from the country that became the main reason for the rise in inflation, the decline in the value of the ruble and, as a consequence, the beginning of financial crisis in Russia.
5. Restrictions on the turnover of securities of Russian companies and the acquisition of securities of foreign companies by legal entities and individuals Russian Federation. Consequences: downgrade of a number of Russian companies on the world market. However, it is important to note the increase in the value of shares of Russian companies on domestic stock exchanges.

Food embargo

A logical response to sanctions from the Eurozone countries and the United States was the Russian embargo, expressed primarily in a ban on the import of a wide range of food products. In this regard, when considering the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy, it is important to highlight the impact of countermeasures. The import of dairy and meat products, vegetables and fruits, seafood and other food products was limited.

According to preliminary calculations, the volume of imports for the year decreased in total by about 10 billion dollars. However, given that the countries of the European Union and the United States have a common global GDP of approximately 40%, the retaliatory measures from the Russian Federation had virtually no effect on them. Poland, Latvia and Finland were the hardest hit. The food embargo had negative consequences for the economy of the Russian Federation and ordinary consumers:

• difficulties with import substitution due to the insufficient development of the Russian agricultural sector. This led to an increase in wholesale and retail prices for food products subject to the food embargo. It is worth noting that the quality of a number of products has also decreased due to decreased competition in the market.
• The need for investment in the agricultural sector at the federal and regional levels, which also had a negative impact on one-time economic indicators around the country.

Results: negative consequences for the Russian economic system

• Falling oil prices and decline in national currency quotations.
• The need to increase contributions from the federal budget in order to support industries subject to sanctions.
• Significant losses in the future for the budget due to the termination of contracts with foreign companies (dismantling of South Stream, BMW’s refusal to build a plant in Russia, etc.).
• A decrease in the purchasing power of the population with rising prices for most goods (electronics, cars, food, etc.).

According to the official statement of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin, as of March 2015, the country's economy lost about 150 billion dollars.

Anti-Russian sanctions were introduced after the escalation of the conflict in the south-east of Ukraine and the holding of a referendum on the status of Crimea. Initially, the United States and the European Union introduced personal sanctions against a number of politicians, banning them from entering their territory and announcing a freeze on their financial resources(if any are found) in Western banks.

Gradually, the list of these persons, as well as the types of sanctions and the number of countries that joined them, expanded. Russia responded with its own food counter-sanctions.

Three years later, we can say that everyone felt the negative consequences of the restrictions - both those who introduced them and those against whom they were directed. “We often repeat as a mantra that the notorious sanctions do not really affect us. They do. And first of all, I see a threat in limiting the transfer of technology,” Vladimir Putin stated last October during the “Russia Calling” forum. This, by the way, harms not only the Russian economy, but the world economy as a whole, because the Russian economy is, of course, an important sector of the global economy."

At the same time, experts also note the positive effect of sanctions on a number of sectors of the economy.

Personal sanctions

Initially, the EU sanctions list included 21 people, the US - 7.

But the lists have constantly expanded and are now under sanctions different countries There are 78 federal politicians, officials and military personnel, 29 politicians from Crimea and Sevastopol, 16 businessmen and four public figures.

Negative consequences. “The economic and political effect of personal sanctions is negligible. Of course, some may be afraid of getting into such a situation, especially if they connect their future and the future of their children with Europe or the United States through foreign assets. But these are personal stories, the effect is invisible on a national scale,” - says Vice President of the Center for Political Technologies Alexey Makarkin.

Positive effect. “Individual officials and businessmen can turn their inclusion on such lists into immunity, additional apparatus weight and opportunities. Since he suffered for the national interest, then now we cannot touch him; on the contrary, we must help,” continues Makarkin. In addition, sanctions contribute to the consolidation and “nationalization” of the elite, which is now increasingly connecting itself with the country, including financially.

Financial sanctions

Negative consequences. The main problem is the ban on lending to Russian banks and companies from Western banks. This has sharply reduced Russian business's access to "cheap" money. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, if in 2013 Russian issuers raised $46.4 billion on the Eurobond market alone, then in 2015 - only about $5 billion.

It was profitable to refinance loans in European and American banks without diverting fixed assets to pay interest on old loans. As a result, companies could invest them in development. Experts from the Institute of National Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences calculated in 2015 that “the Russian economy is forced to make up for $160-200 billion of lost borrowed resources.” That is, this money must either be sought in Asian banks, which cannot be done quickly, or taken from one’s own working capital. As a result, money that could be spent on business development is often spent on paying interest on old loans.

At the same time, the ban on lending to Russian companies also affected European bankers. Experts from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences predicted “annual losses of European institutions of $8-10 billion” - we are talking about unpaid interest on unissued loans. A recent study by the Austrian Institute economic research(WIFO), published in Der Standard, confirmed these figures even “with overlap”: in 2015 alone, Europeans missed out on 17 billion euros in benefits.

Positive effect. Russian business began to look for alternative ways and enter Asian financial markets, which was often not done before simply because of the habit of taking money from “convenient” Western sources.

For example, Gazprom first raised $1.5 billion from a consortium of Chinese banks in 2015, and last year agreed with the Bank of China on a loan of 2 billion euros. At the beginning of February this year, US Rusal expressed its intention to place bonds worth 10 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) on the Shanghai Exchange.

Russian companies have proven that they can find strategic investors not only in the USA and Europe. A case in point is the sale of a 19.5% stake in Rosneft. Many analysts doubted until recently that in conditions when Western investors were prohibited from investing in Rosneft shares, it would even find an investor. But the shares were bought by the international consortium Glencore and the Qatar sovereign fund

Another positive point: in response to attempts to limit payments by a number of banks in the Visa and MasterCard systems, the national payment system Mir was successfully launched in Russia.

Restrictions on the export of equipment and technology

The USA, the EU and a number of other countries have banned the supply of military and dual-use goods to Russia, any cooperation of their companies with enterprises of the Russian defense industry, the supply of equipment necessary for the development of oil and gas fields on the Arctic shelf and in shale formations (drilling platforms, equipment for horizontal drilling, high pressure pumps, etc.).

Negative consequences. The most noticeable impact for the Russian defense industry was the cessation of military-technical cooperation with Ukraine.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin reported that Russia cannot complete the construction of a number of ships for the needs of the Navy due to the suspension of supplies of Ukrainian gas turbine units. It is well known that today frigates of projects 11356 (series for the Black Sea Fleet) and 22350 (the newest frigate "Admiral Gorshkov") for the Russian Navy were equipped with Ukrainian engines. The construction of a number of ships had to be suspended. The same applies to some other types of military equipment.

But the defense industry's dependence on imported technologies is disproportionately less than in the energy sector. It is the energy sector that sanctions will have the most long-term and painful impact, experts from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences note. According to their calculations, the slowdown in the development of new fields, in the most negative scenario, will lead to the fact that “by 2030, the volume of oil produced could be reduced by 15%.”

Meanwhile, the Western economy is also suffering greatly from the embargo on the supply of equipment. " If we look at oil drilling and cooperation in this area, machinery and equipment worth several billion euros remain unsold due to sanctions,” said Henrik Hololei, Deputy Secretary General of the European Commission, in an interview with Postimees.

In addition, if oil production in Russia really decreases, this will push prices up and “given the current volumes of oil and gas consumption in the EU, this factor could lead to additional losses of $3 billion per year,” notes the work of experts from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Thus, the early lifting of sanctions in the energy sector is beneficial to both parties.

Positive effect. Problems with imported, and, above all, Ukrainian components, sharply accelerated the implementation of the import substitution program in the military sphere. According to Dmitry Rogozin, within the framework of this program, production is being launched in Russia for 186 items that were previously produced in Ukraine.

According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, by the end of 2016, Russian defense industry enterprises had completed 70-80% of the plan for “Ukrainian” import substitution, and this figure will reach 100% in 2018.

Thus, Rybinsk NPO Saturn will begin supplying gas turbine engines for warships at the end of 2017 - beginning of 2018.

Another example is engines for helicopters, which were supplied to us by the Zaporozhye plant "Motor Sich". “These engines were created at the Klimov Design Bureau in St. Petersburg, then the design documentation was transferred to Zaporozhye, and mass production was established there. Now a serial plant has been built near St. Petersburg for the production of such engines and, although it cannot yet completely replace the Motor- Sich, "we are still able to compensate for the need for engines for our combat helicopters," says TASS military observer Viktor Litovkin

It is planned to produce in Russia about 300-320 engines per year for the Mi-28, Ka-52, Mi-35, Mi-17 and Ka-32 helicopters. 250 of them are intended for the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the rest - for foreign customers.

Problems with import substitution were also resolved at the Tactical Missile Arms Corporation (KTRV), the main manufacturer of Russian aircraft missiles.

“For example, there are air-to-air missiles that were designed at the State Design Bureau Vympel, and some components were Ukrainian-made. We created a new missile, its export version is called RVV-MD, on a completely domestic element base,” notes the head KTRV Boris Obnosov.

He noted that there was the same problem with the Kh-35E anti-ship missile. Today, a new X-35UE missile with an increased range has been created, equipped with a Russian engine produced by NPO Saturn.

Food counter-sanctions from Russia

The essence of sanctions. In 2014, Russia imposed an embargo on supplies to the country for “certain types of agricultural products, raw materials and food, the country of origin of which is the state that decided to impose economic sanctions against Russia.” The list includes meat and dairy products, vegetables, fruits, nuts, etc.

Negative consequences. At first, counter-sanctions contributed to rising food inflation. As a result, this was one of the factors that, for the first time in many years, double-digit inflation was recorded in the country in 2014 - 11.4%, and in 2015 it was 12.9%.

The problem of product quality has become a little more acute. Thus, in 2015, the head of Rosselkhoznadzor Sergei Dankvert reported that the share of counterfeit dairy products (using vegetable fats) in Russia amounted to 11%, and among some types of products - up to 50%.

However, the main negative effect of Russian sanctions was on European agricultural producers. In 2015 alone, exports of food products from EU countries to Russia decreased by 29%, European producers lost 2.2 billion euros in profit, and 130 thousand jobs were at risk.

Positive effect. "Positive effect (from the introduction of counter-sanctions. - Note TASS), of course there is, - Andrei Danilenko, head of the committee on agro-industrial policy of the Business Russia association, tells TASS. - There are details and nuances, but overall import substitution has worked. Today we are one of the largest exporters of grain; we largely provide ourselves with meat and milk."

According to the National Meat Association (NMA), Russia's self-sufficiency in poultry meat is currently almost 100%, in pork - 90%, in beef - 65%. The Cabinet of Ministers, in turn, believes that Russia provides itself with milk by 75%. Danilenko notes that “in terms of milk production costs, Russia is more competitive than the EU, USA and South America,” but the industry is greatly hampered by the high cost of loans.

To date, the impact of food sanctions on inflation has also been minimized. At the end of 2016, it amounted to only 5.4%.

Currently, there is an increasing trend in the number of applications of economic sanctions against different countries. Globalization of international economic processes is one of the reasons for such measures. It is well known that today the stable position of a state is determined, first of all, by the level of development of its economy. In this regard, termination or restriction of economic relations can have significant consequences for the normal functioning of the state.

The main reason for the crisis of the Russian economy in 2014-2015 was the introduction by Western countries of a set of economic and political sanctions against Russia. The manifestation of such measures was influenced by the inclusion of Crimea into the Russian Federation.

The first economic sanctions, combined with political restrictions, were introduced in March 2014. Subsequently, there were several more “waves” of sanctions. The prerequisite for their appearance was a plane crash on the territory of Ukraine and the Western media’s reference to Russia’s failure to comply with the Minsk agreements.

The sanctions were aimed at significantly limiting foreign exchange earnings into the country, weakening the ruble and promoting an inflationary spiral. All these actions, according to the West, were supposed to weaken the current political system and cause a decline in the popularity of the current government in the country.

The result of the first wave of sanctions was a ban for a circle of individuals from entering the territory of the countries initiating these measures, the freezing of their assets, as well as a ban on business transactions with these individuals and companies. The financial market also did not go unnoticed. The six largest Russian state-owned banks, enterprises in the energy and defense industries were limited in access to the financial markets of the EU and the USA.

The imposed sanctions could not but cause retaliatory measures from Russia. In August 2014, the Russian government decided to impose an embargo, which covered the United States, Poland, Hungary, Finland, the Baltic countries, and others. First of all, Russian sanctions affected agricultural products, cars and a number of other goods.

Against this background, it is necessary to consider the consequences of economic sanctions not only for the Russian economy, but also for the economic situation Western countries.

Russia's losses due to limited access to Western markets in 2014 amounted to 25 million euros or 1.5% of GDP. In 2015, this figure increased to 75 billion euros or 4.5% of GDP. The consequences of sanctions for EU countries are estimated at 40 million euros or 0.3% of GDP in 2014 and 50 billion euros and 0.4% of GDP in 2015.

When talking about the consequences of sanctions for the Russian economy, one cannot take into account only the negative aspects. The main purpose of the Russian government's adoption of the embargo against Western countries was not only the need for retaliatory action, but also to stimulate the economic activity of its own producers.

The actions of the Russian government have sharpened attention to those problems that have required solutions for a very long time. These include:

Development of your own industry Agriculture;

Expansion and implementation of proprietary technologies;

Improving the level of operation of the logistics network;

Forming relationships between retail chains and producers of agricultural products;

Creation of your own payment system.

It should be noted that not only Russia, but also a number of Western countries suffered losses from the introduction of sanctions. If we consider the impact of sanctions on individual countries, Poland lost 0.2 percentage points for every 10% of lost exports economic growth of your country.

At the end of 2014, the Finnish economy lost $104 million due to sanctions. The well-known company Valio in Russia was one of the first to suffer from the measures introduced. It is also worth noting that Finland has lost a significant sector of the Russian food economy. We should not forget that sanctions also affected transit. A significant decrease in trade turnover provoked a violent reaction not so much from manufacturing companies, but rather from farm owners. The consequence of this was various rallies, strikes, protests, and pressure on the ruling parties of Finland.

Speaking about the consequences of sanctions in the Hungarian economy, it is worth noting that Russia is the third most important, after Germany and Austria, economically important partner for this country. Almost 80% of all energy resources are supplied from Russia. According to economists, due to the imposed sanctions, Hungary lost several billion dollars in lost goods, tourists and investments.

For Lithuania, the consequences of the sanctions war were most evident in the agricultural sector. Approximately 5th of the country’s food exports went to Russia, and according to the smallest estimates, it amounted to about 300 million euros.

The Estonian dairy industry is in a deplorable state. Large volumes of cheese, milk and sour cream simply could not find the right market in the shortest possible time, while maintaining the same price.

Latvia suffered damages of 55 million euros with the introduction of an embargo on food supplies to Russia from Western countries. Most Latvian enterprises, primarily those involved in cargo transportation, were forced to ask for tax holidays.

The legality of the measures taken by Russia, as well as the EU sanctions, can be challenged and defended within the WTO. However, it is necessary to take into account which grounds for imposing sanctions are recognized as justified in this organization and which are not.

In general, characterize the economic sanctions put forward against Russia in 2014-2015. and currently ongoing can be explained by the West’s desire to reduce the influence of the Russian Federation on the world stage and the inability to realize its political goals. Undoubtedly, such measures are negative for various sectors of the economy. But one cannot fail to take into account the positive aspects of this situation. Russia has expanded exports to the countries of the East and Africa, new directions in the meat production industry have begun to emerge, and dairy production is developing. By the beginning of 2016, in some regions of the country the share of domestic producers reached 90%. Russia has a real opportunity to fully compensate for lost relationships and develop new ones. At the moment, Russia's main partners under sanctions are China, Japan and South Korea. In the future, the Russian government plans to establish relationships with a number of countries, which will allow market relations to return to their previous level.

Bibliography

1. Report on the Russian economy for 2015 [Electronic resource] //

2. World Bank Center for Global Practice on Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management. – 2015. – No. 33. – URL: http://www.worldbank.org/

3. Klinova M., Sidorova E. Economic sanctions and their influence on economic relations between Russia and the European Union // Questions of Economics. – 2014. – No. 12. pp. 67-79.

4. Loginova I.V., Titarenko B.A., Sayapin S.N. Economic sanctions against Russia [Electronic resource]. – Current issues economic sciences. – 2015.– №47.

5. Pkhalagova D.E. “War of sanctions” consequences for Russia and the countries of the European Union [Electronic resource]. – URL: http://www.sciencefor-rum.ru.

6. Reaction of foreign manufacturers to Russian sanctions [Electronic resource] // Information Agency Russia TASS. – URL: http://www.tass.ru.

7. Shmeleva B.A. Consequences of the imposed sanctions for economic development Russia [Electronic resource]. – URL

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Introduction

1. Imposition of sanctions against Russia, retaliatory measures

2. Assessing the effect of sanctions and the impact of sanctions on the lives of the population

Conclusion

List of sources and literature used

Introduction

The first sanctions against Russia were introduced on March 6, 2014, but they were more symbolic in nature and looked more like an unfriendly gesture on the part of the West than a real blow to the economy. The next stages of restrictions for the Russian Federation have become much more significant and are capable of causing serious damage to the Russian economy in the medium term. Government officials included in the sanctions largest banks, energy and defense enterprises, in addition, European, American, Japanese, Canadian and Australian companies decided to limit the supply of technologies, weapons, minerals and other goods to the Russian market.

Purpose of the work: to study the impact of sanctions on sectors of the Russian economy and on ordinary citizens of the country, as well as to develop actions to overcome the crisis.

Study the reasons for sanctions

Determine the impact of sanctions and retaliatory measures on the country's economy

Determine the impact of sanctions on citizens of the Russian Federation

Analyze the actions of a country against which sanctions were also imposed (using the example of China)

Subject of research: sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation

Object of study: the impact of sanctions on the country

Hypothesis: sanctions have hit many sectors of the Russian economy hard, but if we follow the example of China, then in the future the crisis will be replaced by economic growth.

Relevance: the situation in Ukraine, which led to the introduction of economic sanctions against Russia, raised important questions: how sensitive was Russia to economic sanctions, what damage have they already caused or can cause to the Russian economy? What is the degree of its sovereignization? How did sanctions affect the standard of living of an individual citizen?

1 . Imposition of sanctions against Russia, retaliatory measures

Economic sanctions are actions taken by one country or group of countries against the economic interests of another country or group of countries, usually with the goal of bringing about social or political changes in that country(ies).

Typically, sanctions take the form of restrictions on imports or exports or on financial transactions. They may concern specific goods or transactions, or they may be a blanket trade ban. There are conflicting opinions about the effectiveness of imposing sanctions. Skeptics emphasize that these sanctions are easily overcome and often turn out to be more painful for those who impose them, rather than for those states whose policies they seek to influence in this way. In addition, sanctions harm the country that imposes them, as that country loses export markets or suppliers of raw materials. To top it all off, the country against which sanctions are imposed can itself impose retaliatory sanctions.

Sanctions against other countries have existed for hundreds of years. States have always tried to influence their neighbors using indirect methods of influence. But history shows that sanctions often only worsened the problems they were intended to solve.

The first known example of the use of economic sanctions was recorded in Ancient Greece. In 423 BC, Athens, which dominated Hellas, banned merchants from the Megara region from visiting its ports and markets. This led to the start of the bloody Peloponnesian Wars. In the era of empires, the introduction of sanctions was explained by mercantile reasons: powers tried to suppress international trade and accumulate as much money as possible for the treasury.

The first sanction led to a bloody war in Greece. In his fight against Britain, French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte instituted a "continental blockade," prohibiting European countries occupied or dependent on France from purchasing British goods. Thus, studying historical facts regarding the use of economic sanctions allows me to conclude that the use of such methods often leads to many conflicts and wars. I believe that free trade, as the opposite of prohibitions and restrictions, is beneficial to everyone, both sellers and buyers.

Introduction of sanctions against Russia

Sanctions in connection with the events in Crimea and eastern Ukraine are restrictive political and economic measures introduced against Russia and a number of Russian and Ukrainian individuals and organizations that, in the opinion of international organizations and individual states, are involved in destabilizing the situation in Ukraine, and also Russia's response. The initiators of the introduction of sanctions were the leaders of the United States and leading states of the European Union, joined by Canada, Australia, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and other states.

The first package of sanctions was put into effect after Russia recognized the results of the Crimean referendum, supported the unilateral declaration of independence of the Republic of Crimea and accepted its proposal to join Russia. According to a number of countries and international organizations, the annexation of Crimea to Russia was illegal. The subsequent strengthening of sanctions was associated with the aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine. The organizers of the sanctions accused Russia of actions aimed at undermining the territorial integrity of Ukraine, in particular, of supplying weapons to pro-Russian rebels

The next round of sanctions was associated with the crash of a Boeing 777 in the Donetsk region on July 17, 2014, which, according to the leadership of a number of states, was caused by the actions of rebels supported by Russia.

In response to the annexation of Crimea by Russia, the European Union, the USA, Canada and a number of other countries announced the introduction of sanctions. The measures include asset freezes and visa restrictions for designated individuals, as well as bans on companies in sanctioned countries from doing business with designated individuals and entities. On March 12, 2014, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, by decision of its governing council, suspended the process of admitting Russia to its membership and announced strengthening cooperation with Ukraine.

Response measures. On March 17, 2014, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation called the sanctions imposed by the United States against Russia “a reflection of a pathological reluctance to recognize reality and the desire to impose on everyone its unilateral, unbalanced and completely ignorant approaches to reality.” In response to sanctions measures against a number of Russian officials and deputies of the Federal Assembly, the Russian Foreign Ministry on March 20 published a list of sanctions against officials and members of the US Congress, which included nine people: They are prohibited from entering the territory of the Russian Federation. In response to Canadian sanctions, on March 24, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation published a list of 13 Canadian citizens - officials, parliamentarians and public figures - who are prohibited from entering the Russian Federation.

After payment systems Visa and MasterCard, at the request of the US Treasury Department, froze transactions on plastic cards several domestic banks, Russia has intensified efforts to create its own national payment system. There is talk about switching to the Chinese payment system UnionPay or the Japanese JCB. The State Duma demanded compensation from Visa and MasterCard. On March 27, 2014, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin approved the creation of a national payment system in Russia. According to Morgan Stanley forecasts, with a complete cessation of operations in Russia, lost revenues for Visa and MasterCard will amount to $350--470 and $160 million per year, respectively.

In response to the cessation of supplies of weapons and military equipment from Ukraine to Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin assured that Russia will find something to replace Ukrainian supplies of the defense industry, and that “there is no doubt that the Russian defense industry is capable of compensating for this.” On April 10, Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the leadership of defense industry enterprises and relevant departments. Ukroboronprom's losses from the severance of relations with Russia are not reported. On July 17, the day the US administration introduced a new package of sanctions, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a statement that Washington was “cynically trying to deflect responsibility and grossly distorting the facts” and “actually inciting bloodshed.” Diplomats perceived the move to impose sanctions as an attempt by the United States to hold Russia responsible for a civil war with numerous casualties in a neighboring country. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that the sanctions are illegitimate, introduced “under a far-fetched and false pretext” and that they will bring nothing but complications to Russian-American relations.

On August 6, the Decree of the President of Russia “On the application of certain special economic measures to ensure the security of the Russian Federation” prohibited the import into the territory of the Russian Federation of “certain types” of agricultural products, raw materials and food, the country of origin of which is the state that decided to impose economic sanctions against Russian legal and (or) individuals or joining such a decision. The embargo affected the EU countries, the USA, Australia, Canada, and Norway. The specific list of goods subject to restrictions has been determined by the Russian government. The list includes meat and dairy products, fish, vegetables, fruits and nuts. The total annual volume of imports subject to sanctions is estimated at US$9 billion. On August 11, government purchases of light industrial goods from foreign suppliers were also limited. The list of goods includes fabrics, outerwear, workwear, underwear, as well as clothing made of leather and fur.

These measures apply to all states, with the exception of members of the Customs Union. The decision comes into force on September 1, 2014. On August 20, the government of the Russian Federation excluded lactose-free milk, salmon and trout fry, seed potatoes, onions, hybrid sweet corn and onions, and dietary supplements from the sanctions list.

2 . Assessing the effect of sanctions and the impact of sanctions on the lives of the population

Russian economic political sanction

We are in conditions global economy and in this regard, it is impossible to imagine a state that is not integrated into the system of world economic relations. However, the degree of relationship may vary. I tried to figure out how dependent Russia is on the world, and how such dependence affects the country’s economy.

Firstly, it is the country's provision with strategically important goods (food, medicine, technology, components for cars). IN trade balance Russia's main partners remain the EU countries (42.2% of imports and 53.8% of total exports), APEC (34.3% of imports and 18.9% of exports) and the CIS (13% of imports and 14% of exports), the largest of the main partners - China and Germany.

In the event of an economic blockade, in which strategically important resources are no longer imported into the country, Russia may face serious problems with a shortage of a number of food products, medicines, and components for production. So, for example, during the 2008 war, Russian refineries stood idle because they did not receive special additives for the production of gasoline.

If we imagine a situation of a military conflict in which Russia will be involved, and the West will try to exert targeted influence, the Russian pharmaceutical market will be left with virtually no imported products, since the main supplier is European countries (the largest European suppliers account for 71.8%, the USA - 4.7% and for India - 6.1%). The share of imported products exceeds 70% of the Russian medicinal market. Agree, the numbers are impressive to think about the security and sovereignty of the state. And medicines are strategically important products and the country will not be able to do without them for a long time.

Another question is why we ourselves are not able to meet our own needs for medicines? Studying various sources, I discovered that Russia is overly dependent on imports of the following goods - boilers, nuclear reactors, mechanical equipment and spare parts (more than 30% of imports are from Europe and the USA). The country cannot meet its own needs in this segment.

Secondly, this is the stability of export supplies of energy resources. The country sells the most oil to Europe - 67.5%, the second partner is China, which accounts for 16.85% of Russian oil, and the third place is occupied by the United States - 6%. The Russian gas industry is almost completely focused on the countries of Europe and the CIS: 64.70% of Russian gas goes to Europe through pipelines, 27.85% to the countries of the post-Soviet space, and the remaining share to Asia.

Thirdly, the fall in the ruble exchange rate. This is due to the fact that the currency is highly dependent on the country’s foreign policy.

Fourthly, a decline in stock market prices. This became possible due to the current critical situation, when 70% of the Russian stock market belongs to a foreign investor. The stock market crash was not a deliberate reaction or sanction, but was a direct consequence of the expectations of investors who are primarily interested in making profits.

Fifthly, the influx of foreign investment is directly related to foreign policy.

Sixth, sanctions on banking system and foreign accounts. This is where the United States has the greatest leverage on Russia: freezing the accounts of Russian private investors and state-owned companies.

Thus, having studied the degree of dependence of the Russian economy on the world, I realized that we are quite dependent, and therefore vulnerable. However, we drove ourselves into this dependence when we stopped supporting the manufacturing industry and switched to consuming imported products instead of developing our own production. During the analysis of the consequences of the introduction of sanctions, I assessed the effects:

Negative and positive effects:

Economic growth has slowed to 0.8% and may go negative in the future. On the other hand, the economy is quite stable (let’s not forget that the ratio of government debt to Russia's GDP is 11%, while in countries Western Europe, for example, in France this figure is 95%) an increase in the level of inflation, a weakening of the national currency, a decrease in income from government reserves, a drop in oil prices, a downgrade of Russia’s rating from “BBB” to “BBB-”, as a result of which the country has become less attractive to investors “shortfall” foreign capital inflow amounted to $174 billion, equivalent to 8.4% of GDP

The net effect of sanctions, taking into account the actions of business, is estimated as an increase in net capital outflow by $124 billion (6.0% of GDP). The current situation will allow Russian companies to turn to Japanese, Chinese and other banks. This may help accelerate the diversification of the Russian economy in terms of moving away from the West and increasing interest in the East to find a better balance in their economy and the prospects for its development, visa restrictions (especially affecting small entrepreneurs) from a tourism point of view, for Russia, everything may not be so bad if Russian tourists go to Sochi instead of Spain, then this is not so bad, since tourists will spend money in Sochi, and not in Spain or another European country.

Absence or reduction in Russian markets of many imported food products, an increase in the range of domestic production. Thus, even a superficial analysis of the data presented in the table allowed me to see that the introduction of sanctions caused serious consequences for the Russian economy. Former Economy Minister Alexei Kudrin even estimated Russia's annual losses from sanctions at $50 billion.

The impact of sanctions on the lives of the population

Based on the analysis of the survey results, I made the following conclusions: With the introduction of sanctions, the lifestyle of the residents of our city has not changed dramatically, as 85% of respondents think. According to residents, the sanctions had almost no impact on life ordinary people. The overwhelming number of respondents (79%) believe that these sanctions have not created problems for them and their families.

However, 21% still felt their effect. 40% of respondents believe that the Russian leadership is doing the right thing by compensating from the budget the losses of companies and banks that have fallen under Western sanctions, but almost the same number (39%) do not support this decision. 70% of respondents note that the decline in living standards was due to a reduction in the range of consumer goods. 60% of respondents reacted positively to the idea of ​​“punishing offenders” - to compensate for the costs of such compensation, seize the accounts and property of foreign companies or states that have benefited from sanctions against Russian companies. 17% of respondents did not support the idea. More than half - 58% of respondents have a positive attitude towards the idea of ​​boycotting (refusing to buy) foreign-made goods. 42% believe that sanctions are aimed at a narrow circle of people (those with businesses abroad, bank accounts). 59% of respondents believe that Western sanctions and Russia’s response will only benefit our country. Those who believe that it is harmful are a quarter of the total number of respondents (25%).

The budget is running out of money, as evidenced by the reduction of previously untouchable military spending and the use of funds from the National Welfare Fund to support the state. companies and banks. Food prices have increased significantly, which has become noticeable to almost everyone, and does not add optimism to the current situation.

On average, rates on the entire range of loans rose by 2% - from mortgages to loans to small businesses, which further “slows down” the economy. At the same time, the arrears increased, because the general solvency of the population fell. Pension savings are frozen and every day there are more and more calls to introduce new taxes and refuse payments maternity capital and increase the retirement age, which is quite likely given the current state of affairs.

Analysis of China's actions regarding sanctions

Sanctions against China. In 1989, after condemning the crackdown on demonstrations in Tiananmen Square, the United States imposed sanctions against China, very similar to those now in force against Russia. Many companies were banned from trading with China, banks were cut off from loans in the West, the Americans imposed an arms embargo and limited access to high technology. Now the Western economy has weakened greatly, but the Chinese economy ranks second in the world, and the United States is China's main debtor.

China's response

Is it prohibited to supply high technology? No problem! The Chinese will copy anything. As soon as the next version of the iPhone comes out, the Chinese version immediately appears, and even in an improved version - three SIM cards and two video cameras. The Chinese government easily circumvented US sanctions by not buying technology, but by obtaining it illegally: the West failed to do anything. Hackers from China simply steal technology secrets from Western companies by hacking into corporate computers. If they didn’t want to sell, they’ll give it away for free, that’s the whole difference.

The situation with trade was also changed,” says Wang Jilin, a professor at Changchun University. - China began to secretly reach out to modest companies in small European countries, offering them lucrative contracts that could enrich local oligarchs. As a result, businessmen began to look for loopholes in the law to trade with China, and the embargo failed.

The PRC economy began to develop at such a speed that the United States and Europe soon realized that they were losing hundreds of billions of dollars. The sanctions have come to naught. True, weapons are still not supplied, but why? China has its own and Russian. It was after 1989 that serious development of remote regions in China began. 25 million people were left unemployed as a result of Western sanctions, but the government transported migrant workers to the south of the country, where the construction of special economic zones - Zhuhai and Shenzhen - was in full swing.

Now, on the site of poor fishing villages, skyscrapers have risen, new metropolises with tens of millions of residents have turned into centers of the Chinese electronics industry. Even the current rapid development of livestock farming in China also owes to Western sanctions: the Chinese authorities previously simply could not feed the huge country and purchased a lot of food abroad. However, after the bans, China developed the production of the same beef and now exports it abroad, although it previously purchased it from the USA. After the Tiananmen events, the PRC was denied not only new technologies, but also the acquisition of high-speed Japanese Shinkansen trains, so the Chinese could only rely on themselves.

Already in 1996, the “New Railways” program was adopted, and in 2008, after the call of the Chinese government to develop the province in defiance economic crisis, “bullet” trains (250 km/h) appeared everywhere. In 2015, a new model is being prepared for release - 500 km/h, which has no analogue even in Japan.

Conclusion

Russia imports a significant portion of its food products from abroad, including from countries subject to a food embargo. In 2013, 40% of agricultural products imported to Russia were produced in the EU, another 4% in the USA. In the (Kaliningrad region) 80% of all food products came from the EU. According to Vedomosti calculations based on Federal Customs Service data for 2013, the European Union accounted for 37% of Russian imports of meat, 13% of fish and shellfish, 33% of animal products (milk, eggs, honey), 30% - vegetables, 24% -- fruits, 39% -- finished products from meat and fish, 25% - drinks, the US share - 18% of imports of oilseeds and other seeds and fruits and 12% of meat imports.

There is an opinion that a food embargo can have a positive impact on agro-industrial complex Russia thanks to the displacement of foreign competitors and the expansion of the sales market. Russia, however, does not have the ability to ensure complete import substitution of products subject to sanctions, and therefore prices are expected to rise. Local Russian suppliers, as well as manufacturers from other countries, began to increase selling prices for products due to the embargo. A decline in product quality is also expected, due to decreased competition. Before the introduction of sanctions, imports accounted for about 40% of Russians' food expenditures. Increased food prices due to sanctions will hit the budgets of Russians, especially the poorest segments of the population.

List of sources used

1. Grigoryan A., Korchmarek N. Trade turnover between Russia and the USA has decreased by a third since the beginning of the year Izvestia, [electronic resource]

2. Navalny A. All types of sanctions against Russia, a year later Echo of Moscow [electronic resource]

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Sanctions of the “West” against Russia were introduced in several stages, starting in March 2014. As you already know, the reason for the sanctions measures was the entry of Crimea into the Russian Federation, as well as Russian support for supporters of the independence of the DPR and LPR in the framework of the armed conflict in Donbass.

1 Reasons for imposing sanctions on the Russian Federation

So, after the announcement of the results of the Crimean referendum in March 2014 and the inclusion of the peninsula into the Russian Federation, the European Union and America applied a package of sanctions against Russia, after which additional sanctions restrictions were gradually added that affected oil and gas industry, financial sector, defense industry and limited the development of telecommunications and infrastructure in Crimea. Personalized restrictions extended to individual companies and a number of individuals from the Russian Federation. The last update of the sanctions list occurred on September 12, 2014.

2 Main sectoral sanctions

Financial sector:

• ban on foreign investors lending to the 5 largest Russian banks and carrying out a new issue of their securities
• The largest banks (about 60% of the entire credit and financial system of Russia) are limited in attracting external investment
• The EBRD and the EIB stopped financing projects

Oil and gas industry:

• A ban on Western companies investing in oil, gas and mineral production in the Russian Federation
• Ban on the sale of oil production equipment and technologies to Russian companies
• Ban on providing oilfield services to Russian companies

Defense-industrial complex:

• Embargo on the import and export of weapons, related technologies and materials
• Ban on export of dual-use goods

Other:

• Personal sanctions against individual Russian companies
• Ban on investment and supply of equipment and technologies for the infrastructure, telecommunications and transport system of Crimea

3 Personal sanctions - financial sector

• The EU sanctions list: VTB, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, Vnesheconombank, RNKB and Sberbank of Russia.
• United States sanctions list: Sberbank of Russia, Vnesheconombank, Bank of Moscow, VTB, Gazprombank and Rosselkhozbank.

Concerning financial sector, then the EU and US sanctions lists are almost identical and prohibit Western companies from carrying out transactions with securities of listed banks with a circulation period of more than 30 days, as well as lending to listed companies from Russia, carrying out cash settlement operations, providing services for the placement of securities and portfolio management investments.

As a result, financial sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation affected about 60% of assets credit and banking system RF, which seriously limited the development of the state.

4 Personal sanctions - oil and gas industry

• EU sanctions list: Rosneft, Feodosia, Transneft, Gazprom Neft, Novatek and Chernomorneftegaz
• United States sanctions list: Chernomorneftegaz, Rosneft, Novatek Transneft, Gazpromneft, Lukoil, Gazprom, and Surgutneftegaz.

Regarding the oil and gas industry. US sanctions are structured in such a way that American companies are prohibited from providing oilfield services aimed at developing fields, as well as oil production in the Arctic, in deep water, and in shale deposits. The EU has blocked the participation of European companies in Russian projects in the oil and gas industry. Moreover, companies from the EU and the USA were prohibited from providing technology to the Russian Federation, including supplying equipment used for drilling wells and offshore development.

Russian corporations Transneft, Rosneft, Gazpromneft also came under financial sanctions. Regarding them, a ban has been introduced on receiving financing in Western financial markets and carrying out transactions with new obligations whose duration exceeds 30 days (in the EU) and 90 days (in the USA).

“The joint projects of Russian and Western companies in the oil and gas industry suffered the greatest damage. The introduced restrictions forced Russian counterparties to abandon “dangerous” cooperation and suffer financial losses. For example, the failure of a joint project between Rosneft and Exxon Mobil regarding oil production in the Arctic Ocean brought multimillion-dollar losses to the American company. Oil equipment suppliers, Schlumberger and Baker Hughes, suffered in the same way.”

5 Personal sanctions – military-industrial complex

• EU sanctions list: Kalashnikov concern, Uralvagonzavod concern, Mechanical Engineering Technologies, Stankoinstrument, PVOAlmaz-Antey, NPO VKO, NPO Basalt, Sirius, UAC, Khimkompozit, Tula Arms Plant.
• Sanctions list of the United States: PVOAlmaz-Antey concern, NPO Mashinostroeniya, Kalinin plant, Kalashnikov concern, Izhmash, Uralvagonzavod NPO Basalt, Instrument Engineering Design Bureau, KRET, Constellation, Dolgoprudny Research and Production Enterprise, Mytishchi Machine-Building Plant.

The listed companies received a ban on the export and import of weapons, as well as “dual-use” products, including high technologies that are used in the civil and defense industries.

Three of the enterprises listed above also came under financial sanctions, namely, they received a ban on financing and transactions with securities in Western financial markets.

6 Key consequences of sanctions

The key consequences of the sanctions are bans and restrictions on the access of Russian companies to the financial markets of the EU and the USA, which caused a significant increase in the cost of lending for Russian companies and banks, as well as a deterioration in the overall financial condition Russian Federation. In our previous article, we already described the consequences that have occurred in the Russian economy to date.

“The sanctions that were applied to the companies listed above also affected those companies that were not subject to direct restrictions. The reason for this is a significant deterioration in access to financial markets, as well as the fear of foreign investors to deal with “dangerous” companies.”

Restrictions are already affecting individual technological projects (most often oil production projects). And in the long term, the “sanctions effect” may turn out to be much more significant, since:

1. The possibility of attracting cheap investments has been significantly reduced. For some infrastructure companies this is simply critical, and for others it is fatal. After all, the state is actually unable to simultaneously provide assistance and support to all affected companies
2. Russian companies are cut off from technologies (they have already begun to develop their own, but this will take many years), which are technically impossible to replace with Chinese or domestic developments.
3. A ban on the import of dual-use technologies, as well as restrictions on non-military high-tech imports, will increase the technological gap of the Russian Federation from the leading countries of the world.

7 How did sanctions affect stock quotes of Russian companies?

How much did Western sanctions affect the securities of Russian companies? The answer is hidden in their quotes. For example, let’s take the most famous issuers and analyze the quotes of their assets:

Sberbank of Russia securities quotes

Gazpromneft securities quotes

Rest assured, the market will restore the fair price of these assets and the time will come when securities“sanctioned” companies will return to pre-sanction levels. But this will take some time. However, right now, when they are at such low levels, is the time to take a closer look at purchasing them. After all, Sberbank of Russia, Gazpromneft, as well as many other companies that were included in the sanctions lists are companies that are of strategic importance for the Russian Federation, which means that in the foreseeable future they will exist and continue to operate successfully, and their shares will always be popular and in demand .