Model portfolio. Model portfolios are a ready-made solution for busy investors! The invisible leader of online classifieds services

Last week Bob van Dijk, CEO, held a business lunch in New York.

Regular readers know that this company is now our favorite way to invest in the Chinese giant at a huge discount, receiving a dozen more hand-picked technology companies as a gift.

The way Bob answered the questions makes me even more confident in the potential of their company.

Question: Bob, you said today that you quickly “weed out” those businesses that don’t work. The fact is that many managers have a hard time parting with failed businesses. They develop an emotional connection. Why do you think that you can close unprofitable areas, although Doesn't it work for others?

Bob: We recently closed our business in Turkey. The local leader was eager to continue his work. But we had a business plan, and the real numbers turned out to be much worse. Therefore, we recorded a loss and closed everything. As for emotions, I am accustomed to working with numbers by education. I calmly close everything that does not work according to plan, without emotion. It may also be a little easier for me to close a business in Turkey when I myself am in South Africa. I was not involved in this business every day, like a local leader, who also invested my emotions into it.

I like his answer. Too many leaders become emotionally attached to their business and want to prove that they are right. As a result, they go down with the ship. They may say the right words, but when it comes down to it, they are incapable of doing the right thing. But this is not about Bob.

Bob understands this. Closing a problematic business is perhaps one of the most difficult decisions leader. At this point, he admits that he was wrong in front of all the employees and shareholders. Nobody wants to go through this. But sometimes this is the only right step.

Koos Bekker's company is excellent at managing both unsuccessful businesses and actively developing ones. Over the past decade, she has unloaded hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bad investments. At the same time, it continues to hold a stake in the most successful companies, including Tencent.

This is probably the best investment of all time. The company paid $32 million for its stake in Tencent. Today this share is worth approximately $ 160 billion. They confirmed last week that they have no plans to sell.

Bob came to New York to host Investor Day. Both he himself and the heads of various divisions of the company spoke. And it was impressive. As they say in hockey, a good hockey player plays where the puck is, and a great hockey player plays where it will be. Bob plays where current technology goes.

So far, few people have heard of their company, but that will change. In some developed countries she is so ahead in the Internet business that giants Facebook and Amazon will have a hard time catching up with her. No kidding.

Koos Becker's stock could easily rise 50% even if nothing happens. (Although I expect a lot to happen.) After Bob and his team spoke, I'm even more impressed with the potential of this company, and today I want to share more about why I think it's best investment for 2018.

Basic opportunity: 50% growth without doing anything

Let's first look at the basic arithmetic of why the stock has so much upside potential even if the company stalls.

Koos Becker's company has a market capitalization of approximately $110 billion. At the same time, it owns $160 billion worth of Tencent shares, meaning it is trading at a $50 billion discount to the value of those shares alone.

In other words, if Koos and Bob sold their Tencent stake today at the market price, shareholders would make a $50 billion profit (before taxes, of course).

But the fact is that the company owns more than just Tencent shares. They have a whole international business empire. Large brokerage companies estimate the value of other assets at about $20 billion. (I think this estimate is low, but this is a third party opinion.)

According to these figures, if the company closed tomorrow and sold all its assets, shareholders would receive about $180 billion.

But we remember that today the company's market price is only $110 billion. And this difference - $180 billion in asset value and $110 billion in company capitalization on the stock market - is impressive.

At Investor Day in New York, Bob van Dijk said that the company had long been trading at a 20-25% discount to its assets, but about 2.5 years ago this discount increased. He sees the main reason for this as the outflow of capital from the entire South African market, among which their company plays a prominent role and also took the hit.

It is not difficult to imagine that the company's shares could rise by 100%. If its stake in Tencent increases by 20% (to approximately $190 billion), and the fair valuation of other businesses becomes closer to $30 billion, then the total value of assets will be exactly $220 billion. If at this moment the shares are trading at a fair price, then our profit will be 100%.

What does the company have besides Tencent?

So, we see very attractive prices. But is this just a “packaging” for buying Tencent shares?

Here's what Bob had to say about what they are as a group of companies:

We seek opportunities in growing markets (meaning both emerging technologies and developing countries). We usually catch them earlier than other people. And to make money on this, we become long-term partners of outstanding local entrepreneurs.

If we see that some things work very well, we speed them up as much as possible. And we're getting rid of slow-moving businesses as quickly as we can.

This is just music to my investor heart. This company is difficult to understand at first. It has a huge number of business divisions. And it works in many countries, some of which not everyone can even find on the map. At Investor Day, heads of several departments explained what they do:

• Online ad services in different countries(like Avito or eBay)
• E-commerce (like Amazon)
• Food delivery
• Video entertainment services (like Netflix, but with local content)

Let's get acquainted with their methods of doing business using the example of one specific business and one country.

The invisible leader of online classifieds services

Take a photo of the item you want to sell and... bam, it's already listed on letgo, the online classifieds app in which Koos Becker's company has invested. Thanks to artificial intelligence, that's really all you need to do. No kidding.

The company uses artificial intelligence in many online classifieds applications - the program analyzes the photo and determines what exactly you are selling and suggests a price. If she correctly identified the item and price, then you simply click “Yes.” And the product is immediately put up for sale. This takes 30 seconds.

You can chat with potential buyers through the same app, so you don't have to provide your personal information. And in some countries, their services even act as an intermediary and hold the money until the buyer receives the goods. This way, you don't have to meet a stranger in a dark alley with a wad of money.

The company's applications also know how to select the best offers for you. They can advertise products you're interested in and offer search results based on your preferences, not just sorted by ad date.

All this takes online advertising services to a new level. The letgo app has already become more popular in the US when used with mobile phone than the oldest and most famous service Craigslist.

Koos Becker's company saw this as an incredible opportunity. And gradually became a world leader in the online classifieds segment.

It occupies a leading position in 35 countries. Their mobile applications are in 1st place in the USA, India, Indonesia and Brazil. These are the countries with the largest number of inhabitants after China.

In the past, the company was less concerned about profits and focused on building this international classified ads empire. And she was successful. It was incredible global growth.

Now the profits are starting to come in. In its latest available half-year report, the company showed operating profit for its online classifieds services division.

Once you have all the users, you have captured the segment and can now monetize it - just like Facebook or eBay did.

Koos Becker's company can be divided into segments similar to online advertisements. But a division by country also gives a good look at business. Consider India, for example.

The Great Fight for the Indian Consumer

Amazon is not the leader in e-commerce in India. Flipkart takes its place with an incredible 57% market share (based on the value of goods sold on the site). Amazon comes in second.

This is a very important position. India is the second most populous country in the world. It is estimated that online sales in India will grow by 160% by 2022. And by 2025, India will become the third largest consumer market in the world.

In the last three years alone, the number of online shoppers in India has increased sevenfold.

Koos Becker's company owns a stake in Flipkart worth over a billion dollars. (Flipkart is listed on the Indian exchange.)

Amazon has decent competition in India, but Flipkart has the advantage of being a home player. It was created in India, written by Indian programmers. He understands Indian consumers. That's why he still holds the lead.

But Koos Becker's company has another business up its sleeve to capitalize on the growth of online sales in India. They own the equivalent of Paypal for emerging markets, a service called PayU.

In 2016, PayU acquired Indian competitor Citrus Pay for $130 million. The deal remains the largest in the Indian fintech market to this day.

PayU processes an average of 1.2 million payments per day. The system allows you to process local payments bypassing the Visa and Mastercard networks. Many countries have their own analogues of these large networks. PayU links them together to make cross-border payments.

PayU has another incredible opportunity - credit scoring on emerging markets. If PayU has your payment history, it can form a picture of your solvency, which large banks in emerging markets they often cannot. This was made possible thanks to PayU's partnership with the German company Kreditech.

Kreditech estimates that nearly 2 billion adults live in countries that lack banking infrastructure. These people want to have access to modern Western-style financial services, but are unable to due to a lack of credit history.

They don't have a mortgage. They dont have credit cards. Traditional banking services practically non-existent. There is no way to somehow assess the solvency of these people in order to issue them a loan or credit.

Kreditech solves this problem. The company collects information from nearly 20,000 sources and uses artificial intelligence to estimate credit scores.

And now PayU can handle payments in developing countries and offer loans to those people.

Through innovation, Koos Becker's company has created incredible opportunities in India.

With MakeMyTrip, it is a leader in online hotel and flight booking.

Their redBus service is a leading seller of bus tickets. It may not sound very cool, but bus transportation is big business in India. More money is spent on bus tickets than on other modes of transport. They replace local airlines. If you need to go somewhere and you are working class, then you buy a bus ticket.

Koos Becker's company also owns Swiggy. online system food delivery in India. This may also not sound very impressive, but it may turn out to be the biggest opportunity.

The company has an incredibly successful food delivery business in Brazil, iFood, and is working to spread that success around the world.

Delivery Hero is the market leader in 36 of the 42 countries in which it operates. The company bought a 23% stake in this service, which will soon be worth $1.7 billion.

The idea of ​​food delivery is very simple. You order by phone and the food arrives at your door. But it turns out it's more popular than you might imagine.

Koos Becker's company is rushing to capture market share in all the market segments that I described above. And it does this primarily in developing countries, such as India, where large Western companies such as Facebook or Amazon do not dominate.

This company is an excellent international investment. It has created a portfolio of so-called “ecosystems” (which I talked about earlier when I first introduced this company) that other players will find it difficult to compete with.

I certainly liked the idea of ​​investing in this company when I first wrote about it. But now, after Bob van Dijk's performances in New York, I see more opportunity here than just a market discount.

Market discount is of course also important. The company's assets are worth $180 billion and its market capitalization is about $110 billion. That's almost $70 billion in potential even if nothing special happens to the company. But we see that very interesting and positive things are happening.

Koos Becker's company is my favorite investment for 2018.

Please note that until December 25, we will give all new Club members one month as a gift.

Successful investments,

Philip

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For any questions, please email smartvalueideas (woof-meow) gmail.com

P.S. This article expresses the personal opinion of the author and is not a guide to action. You should make your own informed investment decisions.

We present an overview of the results of managing the Investcafe model portfolio, formed from the most attractive, in our opinion, liquid shares of Russian issuers over the past two weeks, and also form the composition of the portfolio for the period until February 2.

Russia

According to Rosstat, from January 1 to January 9, the consumer price index increased by 0.2%, from January 10 to January 15 - by 0.1%, and since the beginning of the year - by 0.2%.

According to the Bank of Russia, the average maximum rate of the top 10 domestic credit institutions on deposits individuals in rubles for the first ten days of January amounted to 7.25% (-0.08 percentage points).

According to preliminary information from the regulator, the net outflow of private capital from the Russian Federation in 2017 amounted to $31.3 billion compared to $19.8 billion a year earlier, that is, an indicator of almost 1.6 times year-on-year. The main source of net capital outflow was the banking sector's operations to repay external obligations. Capital flows associated with the operations of other sectors were generally of a mutually compensating nature. The positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments in 2017, according to preliminary estimates by the Bank of Russia, amounted to $40.2 billion, exceeding the level of 2016 by more than one and a half times.

According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR), in the week to January 17, investors invested in funds focused on Russian assets, $530 million. A week earlier, the inflow amounted to $550 million.

From January 15 to February 6, the Ministry of Finance will purchase foreign currency in the amount of 257.1 billion rubles, obtained from additional revenues from oil sales. This is a record volume of currency purchases since February 2017, when the Ministry of Finance began conducting these interventions. The previous maximum was recorded in December and amounted to 203.9 billion rubles.

On January 1, the Russian Reserve Fund was merged with the National Welfare Fund (NWF). All additional oil and gas budget revenues, according to the new norms of the Budget Code, will now be directed to the National Welfare Fund. The reserve fund was planned to be fully used last year. At the same time, the volume of the National Welfare Fund as of January 1, 2018 should be 3.7 trillion rubles, and its liquid part - 2.3 trillion. This year, the National Welfare Fund should receive currency purchased by the Ministry of Finance in the amount of 829.2 billion rubles. The authorities expect that this year will be the last when the budget deficit will be financed from the National Welfare Fund. Subsequently, they are going to spend money from this fund only on pension savings: 4.5 billion rubles. in 2019 and 3.8 billion in 2020. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance will continue to replenish the National Welfare Fund, sending to it the currency purchased according to the budget rule.

Europe

UK retail sales in December decreased by 1.5% m/m and rose by 1.4% y/y (forecast: -0.6% m/m and +3% y/y). In December, the consumer price index (CPI) in the UK increased by 0.4% m/m and 3% y/y, in line with the forecast.

In December, Germany's producer price index rose 0.2% m/m and 2.3% y/y, as expected. And the consumer price index (CPI) in Germany in December rose by 0.6% m/m and 1.7% y/y, as expected.

The German government formed a coalition, which caused a positive reaction on European stock markets.

In December, the consumer price index in the eurozone rose by 0.4% m/m and 1.4% y/y in accordance with the forecast.

Asia

China's GDP in the 4th quarter of 2017 rose by 6.8% y/y, compared to the forecast of 6.7% y/y. Retail sales for December increased by 9.4% y/y, although the consensus was for growth of 10.1% y/y.

Japan's industrial production index rose by 0.5% in November (forecast: +0.6%). In November, the volume of orders in Japanese mechanical engineering increased by 5.71% m/m and by 4.1% y/y, while a decrease of 1.4% m/m and an increase of 0.7% y/y was expected.

In January, the consumer confidence index in the US amounted to 94.4 points (forecast: 97 points versus 95.9 points a month earlier). Over the past week, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US amounted to 220 thousand, with a forecast of 250 thousand. In December, construction began on 1.192 million houses, while the expected result was 1.275 million. In December, industrial production in the US increased by 0.9% m/ m with a forecast of 0.4% m/m.

The work of federal departments was suspended until the budget was agreed upon.

Oil

According to Baker Hughes estimates, over the past week the number of active drilling rigs in the United States decreased by three units, and their total number was 936 - 242 more than on January 12, 2017. According to the EIA, oil inventories in the United States fell by 6.861 million barrels over the past week, against a forecast of 3.536 million, and gasoline inventories increased by 3.620 million barrels, almost coinciding with the expected 3.426 million. Weekly crude oil exports increased from 1.015 million to 1.249 million barrels per day. Production over the same period recovered to 9.750 million barrels per day.

Minister of Energy Saudi Arabia stated that the parties to the agreement on limiting production had reached an agreement to continue cooperation after the agreement expires at the end of this year.

OPEC has published a monthly forecast for the balance of the oil market for the current year. As follows from the document, the structure and volume of demand have not changed since last month, but the supply forecast for countries outside the cartel was raised to 58.9 million barrels per day (+0.01 million barrels). For America, the figure is expected to increase to 22.6 million barrels per day (+0.02 million barrels). Thus, OPEC is expecting a shift in the global balance towards supply, which is negative for oil prices in the long term.

Following the results of the past two weeks, the ruble showed multidirectional dynamics in relation to the main foreign currencies. By the end of trading on January 19, the USD/RUB pair decreased compared to the value at the end of the trading week before last to 56.72 rubles, and the value of EUR/RUB, on the contrary, increased by 1.03% and amounted to 69.385 rubles.

From January 5 to January 19, the Moscow Exchange index denominated in rubles increased by 3.58%, to 2286.33 points, and calculated in US dollars RTS index added 4.18% and amounted to 1270.92 points.

The Investcafe model portfolio is formed based on the recommendations of the agency’s industry analysts, who offer the most interesting shares in terms of risk/return ratio from the list of the most liquid domestic securities stock market. The weight of each security in the portfolio is determined based on its growth potential, calculated using fundamental analysis methods and adjusted for the individual risks of the issuer. The prices at which transactions will be made are taken as of the close of Friday or the other last day of the trading week. The initial cost of the portfolio was just over 960 thousand rubles. The date of compilation of the first model portfolio using the method described above is August 12, 2011.

Previous portfolio composition

Compared to the value on January 5, the value of the total assets of the model portfolio (stocks + cash) increased, but did not catch up with the growth rate of the Moscow Exchange index.

Return of the model portfolio from the beginning of the countdown compared to the benchmark in the form of the Moscow Exchange index

Source: Investcafe infographics.

Since January 5, the total assets of our model portfolio have risen in price by 1.84%, and the leading Russian stock index increased by 3.58%. The spread (yield gap) between them has widened since the beginning of the report and amounted to 239.22% percentage points. In our favor.


Source: Investcafe calculations.

New portfolio structure

Megaphone(telecommunications sector)
Target price: 992 rub. Growth potential: 91%

Megafon's total revenue under IFRS in 2016 exactly coincided with its forecasts and amounted to 316.3 billion rubles, an increase of almost 1%. Only thanks to an increase in sales of equipment and accessories by more than a third, to 27.0 billion rubles, together with the positive dynamics of income from fixed-line services (+9.5%, to 25.6 billion rubles), caused by the continued expansion of the customer base in the B2B (business to business) and B2G (business-to-government) segments and the development of a portfolio of related products and services, Megafon managed to keep total revenue in positive territory. The number of Megafon subscribers increased in 2016 at the level of revenue - by only 0.8%, to 77.4 million. Important for analysis financial results telecoms are the indicators ARPDU (average bill per user of data services per month) and DSU (average number of data services per subscriber mobile communications per month). Against the background of a slowdown in revenue growth from mobile data services, APRDU over the past year decreased by 1.3%, to 230 rubles, and DSU added over 30%, reaching 4.3 GB due to the active deployment of 4G/LTE networks and the popularization of 4G devices . Important for analyzing the financial results of telecoms are the indicators ARPDU (average bill per user of data services per month) and DSU (average number of data services per mobile subscriber per month). Against the background of a slowdown in revenue growth from mobile data services, APRDU over the past year decreased by 1.3%, to 230 rubles, and DSU added over 30%, reaching 4.3 GB due to the active deployment of 4G/LTE networks and the popularization of 4G devices .

AFK System(holding companies)
Target price, joint-stock company: 22 rub. Growth potential: 75%.

The corporation showed fairly strong financial results for the 1st quarter, increasing adjusted net profit to 2.5 billion rubles, while for the same period last year Sistema showed a loss. The corporation's consolidated revenue increased by 3.3%, to RUB 173 billion, which was due to the growth in revenue of 10 of 13 AFK assets, the strongest of which were Detsky Mir and Segezha group, which increased revenue by 35% y/y and 40% y/y respectively. Such a result Children's world was achieved thanks to the strong dynamics of comparable sales, which increased by 13.1%. Segezha group increased sales of paper, plywood and lumber, and also consolidated LLDK. Adjusted OIBDA, despite the growth in most assets, remained at last year's level, which is due to the loss of the Kronstadt group. According to the company's comments, this is a planned loss, which is associated with investing in new projects, as well as seasonal fluctuations in revenue. In May of this year, the company approved a new dividend policy, according to which payments must be at least 4% of the yield on the weighted average price per share for the dividend period, but per ordinary share cannot be less than 0.67 rubles. dividend. Based on the results of last year, with a yield of 4%, the dividend per ordinary share, according to preliminary calculations, could amount to 0.78 rubles.

Sberbank(financial sector)
Target price, up: 213 rub. Growth potential: 4%.

Sberbank's net interest income for the six months of 2017 increased by 4.4% year-on-year and reached RUB 694.2 billion. For VTB and Moscow Credit Bank, the growth rate of interest income was 9.7% y/y and 1.2% y/y. On the one hand, Sber lost its leadership to its main competitor VTB. On the other hand, we can make a discount on the high base of last year, when the growth rate of Sberbank's net interest income was at the level of 55.5% in annual terms. Net commission income of Russia's largest financial institution in the reporting period increased by 7.4% year-on-year and reached RUB 175.3 billion. The growth rate of this indicator is also noticeably lower than that of competitors: VTB and Moscow Credit Bank showed growth of 17.7% y/y and 27% y/y, respectively. Sber's net interest margin for the first six months of the year was 5.9%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher. more than a year earlier. That's why important indicator Sberbank compares favorably with its competitors: VTB and Moscow credit bank in the reporting period, net interest margins were recorded at 4.1% and 2.9%, respectively. In terms of return on equity, Sberbank is also a leader in the domestic banking sector. ROE for the first half of the year was at the level of 24.8%. For VTB and Moscow Credit Bank this figure was 4.1% and 18.5%, respectively.

Moscow Exchange(financial sector)
Target price: 165 rub. Growth potential: 48%.

The company's commission income in the 2nd quarter increased by 4.13% year-on-year to RUB 5.07 billion. Interest income decreased by 20.1% YoY and amounted to RUB 4.73 billion, amid a decline interest rates and client account balances. Now this income item accounts for 48.2% of total operating income. The management of the Moscow Exchange has set itself the task of reducing the level of interest income in total to 30% by 2020. Operating expenses in the reporting period increased by 12.6% year-on-year and reached RUB 3.21 billion. Commission income in the segment of depository and settlement operations increased by 10.4 percentage points. and amounted to 12.3% y/y. The volume of assets maintained by NSD amounted to RUB 35.46 trillion. versus RUB 32.22 trillion. a year earlier. In the stock market segment, it is necessary to note the high growth in commission income on bonds; here the growth rate remained 23.1% y/y. Commission income on money market in the reporting period increased by 8.5% y/y and amounted to RUB 1.25 billion. The growth rate of the indicator for the year decreased by 8 percentage points. Income per foreign exchange market fell by 6.4% y/y to RUB 0.96 billion. This dynamics is caused by low volatility in major currency instruments. The company's net profit in the 2nd quarter was at the level of 5.29 billion rubles, or 17.3% less than a year earlier. For comparison: in the 2nd quarter of 2016, the growth rate was recorded at 6.8%.

Unipro(electricity sector)
Target price: 3 rub. Growth potential: 11%.

Unipro company reported according to IFRS for the first half of this year. The company's electricity production, according to the data presented, fell by 12.5% ​​year-on-year, to 24.5 billion kWh. Thermal energy production, in turn, increased by 5% YoY, due to unusually cold weather in the regions of operation, but the share of revenues received from the sale of thermal energy is still negligible (about 1.9%). Unipro's poor production results led to a drop in revenue by almost 5%, to RUB 37.8 billion. Before this, the indicator was already under the negative influence of the consequences of the fire at the third power unit of the Berezovskaya State District Power Plant. Operating loss of RUB 500 million. was replaced by operating profit amounting to about 30 billion, while adjusted operating profit increased by 3%, to almost 10 billion rubles. Unipro's net profit amounted to a record 24.5 billion rubles. against last year's loss, this is an exclusively technical one-time factor associated with receiving insurance compensation. Against this background, EBITDA increased from 2.5 billion to 33.1 billion rubles, and the company still has no debt burden. The most pressing issue today remains the situation around the emergency third power unit of the Berezovskaya State District Power Plant. In this sense, Unipro's presentation on its semi-annual reporting brought a noticeable negative connotation to the story. If initially restoration costs were estimated at approximately 25 billion rubles, now they are 39 billion. Moreover, the new amount does not include possible unforeseen expenses, which the company estimates at another 5 billion. Moreover, the launch date for the third power unit of the Berezovskaya GRES is once again may be transferred. This time - from the beginning of 2019 to the 2-3rd quarter.

RusHydro(electric power)
Target price, ao: 0.87 rub. Growth potential: 11%.

RusHydro was the last of the Russian electricity generating companies to report under IFRS for nine months with a decrease in revenue and net profit. The negative dynamics of the holding's revenue is fully explained by the disposal of the Energy Sales Company of Bashkortostan (ESKB) in December 2016. Without taking this factor into account, the figure would have risen by 5.2%, to 268.7 billion rubles. The total electricity generation by RusHydro power plants over the past three quarters increased by 0.5% y/y and amounted to 94.6 billion kW/h. Separately, it is worth noting the income item called “government subsidies”, which is a good help for the financial results of the holding in difficult times. The published reports reflect a double increase - from 10 billion to 20 billion rubles. increase in financial assistance from the state. This somewhat smoothed out the drop in total revenue from 278.9 billion to 268.7 billion rubles. The company's operating expenses lagged behind the rate of decline from revenue, decreasing by 4.7% to RUB 216.2 billion. Operating profit increased by 3%, to 48.2 billion rubles, and its profitability rose from 17.4% to 19.4%. The holding's net profit according to IFRS for January-September decreased by 17.6%, to 30.8 billion rubles, and EBITDA rose by 1.6%, to 71.6 billion. At the same time, profitability on this indicator was above 20%, which has not been observed since 2009, and the NetDebt/EBITDA ratio at the end of the reporting period was a quite acceptable 1.4x, thanks to the company's efforts to reduce debt using funds received from VTB.

Norilsk Nickel(metallurgy)
Target price, joint-stock company: RUB 12,989. Growth potential: 13%.

Norilsk Nickel reported its operating results for the third quarter of last year, recording a decline in almost all key areas. Nickel output fell by 4% QoQ and by 11% YoY to 55.8 thousand tons. Copper production amounted to 86.6 thousand tons, which is also lower than in previous comparable periods. In general, it is worth noting that the results for base metals turned out to be minimal in quarterly terms not only compared to 2016, but to any quarter of 2015. The reason for such disappointing reporting figures was three key factors. Firstly, in June, in connection with the modernization and installation of new, more environmentally friendly equipment in the region, the work of the company’s main enterprise in Norilsk was stopped. To partially replenish the lost volumes of nickel concentrate production and further processing, the capacities of the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant were used. Secondly, during the reporting period, commissioning work was carried out at the Talnakh enrichment plant. Thirdly, the mined ore turned out to have a lower content of metals, primarily platinum and palladium, but also copper. However, despite these negative factors, Norilsk Nickel is profitable and has positive cash flow. At the same time, according to the current dividend policy, the company pays good dividends, the yield on which reaches 9-10% per annum, and will continue to do so in the coming years. Moreover, given the presence of several large majority shareholders in MMC, there is no doubt that dividends will be accrued in full. If prices for non-ferrous metals produced by the company rise, investors can count on a significant increase in the market value of Norilsk Nickel securities. Due to these factors, these papers represent quite reliable investment with growth potential.

Aeroflot(transport sector)
Target price, joint-stock company: 173 rub. Growth potential: 25%.

Aeroflot presented its IFRS financial statements for the past year. As follows from the published document, the revenue of the largest player in the Russian civil aviation sector increased by 19.4% YoY and amounted to 495.8 billion rubles. against growth of 29.8% at the end of 2015. Despite the slowdown in positive dynamics, the figure was 3.6 times higher than the inflation rate, which is favorable for the company. Revenue from private passenger transportation contributed maximum contribution in the aggregate result, rising by 186.6% y/y. Air cargo revenues increased by 30.7% YoY, up 20.2 p.p. higher than in 2015. The company's passenger traffic increased by 10.2% year-on-year, to 43.4 million. Aeroflot management notes high demand on domestic and international routes. Despite the recession in Russian economy, which lasted two years, the volume of passenger traffic increased steadily in 2015-2016. The airline's operating expenses in the reporting period were at the level of 432.6 billion rubles, which is 16.5% more than a year earlier. Aeroflot's operating profit in 2016 rose by 43.4% year-on-year to RUB 63.2 billion. As a result, after two years of unprofitability, the company received 38.8 billion rubles. net profit. Aeroflot securities are in stable demand among investors. In 2016, the company's shares rose in price by 172.4%, and over the past period of 2017 they added 10.4%, while the MICEX index fell by 7.8%. Based on the P/E multiple, Aeroflot shares are trading below the industry average, which suggests potential for price growth.

Yandex(information technology sector)
Target price: 2208 rub. Growth potential: 5%.

Google entered into a settlement agreement with the Federal antimonopoly service according to the Yandex lawsuit. The settlement with Google means that Yandex has the opportunity to negotiate on equal terms with mobile device manufacturers and install its applications, including on the home screen, and Google will not be able to interfere with this. This legal victory for Yandex will not lead to a sharp increase in its share of mobile search queries, since user preferences in favor of Google have already been formed. However, at a minimum, the share of mobile search queries made through Yandex will stop decreasing, and this is positive for the company’s revenue. The attractiveness of Yandex shares for purchase is also indicated by comparison with similar multipliers. The assessment of Yandex, Google and Baidu gives a 12% growth potential for the Russian search engine's quotes.

Tatneft(oil and gas sector)
Target price, joint-stock company: 590 rub. Growth potential: 7%.

Before the new year, Tatneft presented its IFRS results for the nine months of 2017. From January to September, 21.7 million tons of oil were produced, which is 555 thousand more than last year’s result. At the end of the year, an active recovery in prices for hydrocarbon raw materials began, thanks to which Tatneft managed to significantly increase revenues from its sales and earn a quarter more than in nine months previous year. Revenue from sales of petroleum products did not rise so significantly - by 7.7%. Total revenue for the three quarters of this year increased by almost 18%, reaching 489 billion rubles. At the same time, the company’s costs increased by a little over 22%, to RUB 377 billion. This dynamics was associated exclusively with the high burden, mainly on the mineral extraction tax (except for income tax). The mineral extraction tax amounted to about 132.6 billion rubles, while other significant expense items did not seriously affect the final result. The operating profit margin also came under pressure, decreasing over the past year from 23.7% to 22.9%. Tatneft's net profit in the reporting period increased by 18.1% and amounted to 88.8 billion rubles. Tatneft shares, even at historical highs, are attractive for long-term investments, because the company demonstrates annual production growth, its strategy is aimed at increasing shareholder value, and the debt load in terms of the NetDebt/EBITDA ratio is still negative.

And this is not surprising, because having purchased on December 28, 2012 ordinary shares let's say famous chain store OJSC "Magnit" or preferred shares of the transport giant OJSC "AK" Transneft "your savings would increase by 61% and 18, respectively (1), in less than a year! Compare these figures with the profitability of any deposit.

Experienced traders, investors and beginners invest free cash to various securities. Everyone has their own strategy, their own “favorite” stocks, their own investment portfolio.

However, trading stocks can seem complicated. After all, the formation of a profitable investment portfolio requires serious preparation, knowledge and experience of successful trading in the stock market. Of course, this also takes time. Potential investors do not always have these resources.

For clients who do not have the time and sufficient experience in exchange trading, OTKRITIE-Broker has developed a unique product that will provide the opportunity to receive income from investments in Russian shares.

is a ready-made solution for busy investors! This is a special tariff designed for clients who want to invest in securities, but cannot decide on the right set of shares in their portfolio or do not have enough free time.

The client is offered two investment portfolios to choose from:

“Profitable” – a portfolio compiled by OTKRITIE-Broker analysts;

“Independent” is a portfolio compiled by the independent analytical agency “Investkafe”(2).

Investing in is very simple!

Open a brokerage account, connect to a tariff and select your portfolio. Throughout the entire service period, professionals will analyze the situation on the stock market, and you will receive recommendations on making changes to your portfolio via SMS notifications.

Another advantage of the “Model Portfolio” tariff is that you do not need to use special trading programs to make transactions. In order to make changes to the portfolio, you only need to confirm your decision (submit a transaction order) to the OTKRITIE-Broker trader by phone.

Portfolios are compiled by professionals who regularly monitor the stock market. The composition of the portfolios is optimally balanced. Shares are selected, first of all, from the point of view of the performance of a particular company in its field.

Currently, both portfolios include shares traded only on Russian market. in independent investing!

Connect to the “Model Portfolio” tariff and watch how the value of your portfolio changes!

Brokerage services are provided by OJSC Brokerage House OTKRITIE, license of a professional participant in the securities market to carry out brokerage activities No. 177-06097-100000, issued by the Federal Financial Markets Service of Russia on June 28, 2002 (without validity period).

1.According to data from Moscow Exchange OJSC. Yields are indicated at closing prices for the period from December 28, 2012. to 09.09.2013

2. The “Independent” portfolio is formed and modified by analysts of the independent agency “Investkafe” LLC. The return on the “Profitable” portfolio is indicated for the period from July 30, 2012. until July 30, 2013

If you are focused on long term investment into securities, but are at a loss as to which shares to buy, Investment Chamber LLC offers you an example of a well-composed investment portfolio based on the MICEX10 index. It includes shares of 10 most famous and reliable companies in equal shares. These are titan enterprises generating significant cash flows, and at the same time having strong corporate governance.

An example of creating a portfolio starting from 30 thousand rubles:

The share of each issuer is approximately 10% of the total portfolio (3-5 thousand rubles).

* Share prices are as of closing 11/06/2018.

Important:

1. This portfolio is a savings tool.
2. The portfolio is an investment portfolio (not speculative), and involves investing funds for a period of one year or more. Investment strategies are based on the fact that in the long term the population of the planet is growing, the amount of resources is decreasing. As a result, in the long term, demand increases, supply remains unchanged or decreases, prices rise, and the long-term trend is growing (you can read more about the differences between investment and speculative strategies).
3. Don't limit yourself to a one-time investment. Regular additions of funds and additional purchases of shares smooth out speculative fluctuations in portfolio returns (if you buy once, there is a chance that you are buying at an extreme point; if you buy shares regularly (for example, every month), you are guaranteed to repeat the market trend).
4. You only need to sell shares if you decide to leave the stock market and start spending what you have accumulated. In other situations, for example, similar to the 2008 crisis, it is worth using panic for new purchases, assuming recovery and further growth in stock prices as part of the cyclical development of the economy and a long-term trend.

Comparison of the profitability of buying blue chips and investing in bank deposit

The graph shows the dynamics of profitability of two accounts from January 2004 to February 2011.

On one (yellow line) regular purchases of blue chips are made. Every month, once a month (15-17th) on this account, shares of Gazprom, MMC Norilsk Nickel, LUKOIL, Sberbank, Sberbank preferred, Surgutneftegaz are bought for 10,000 rubles.

On the second account (blue line), deposits are made to the bank for similar amounts with a similar frequency (historical data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on average deposit rates excluding demand deposits - you can see).

As can be seen from the graph, even taking into account the 2008 crisis, investing in shares turned out to be more profitable. Final portfolio accumulated in shares amounted tomore than 11.6 million rubles.(RUB 11,632,722.78), for comparison, by investing in bank deposits only 6.7 million rubles would have been accumulated.(6,726,185.63 rubles).

In the long run, buying shares turned out to be better than investment to a bank deposit almost 2 times(1,73).