Grains are outgrowing the market. World grain market: main producers and consumers. Help Economic efficiency of the industry

Demand for Russian grains abroad is reaching its limit. Further growth in exports is possible through the opening of new markets and the promotion of new crops, reports RBC.

At the end of 2019, production growth Agriculture Russia will be higher than initial forecasts. In April, the Ministry of Economic Development predicted an increase of 1.3%, but in August they adjusted it to 1.6%.

The officials' optimism is justified. If in the first half of the year the industry grew by 1.2% compared to the same period in 2018, then in the third quarter, according to preliminary data from Rosstat, by more than 5%.

A significant share in the growth of the agro-industrial complex belongs to crop production, the share of which traditionally accounts for more than 50% of total production in the industry. “By the end of this year, we expect the second best grain harvest in the history of not only Russia, but also the RSFSR. It will be second only to the indicators of 2017. At the beginning, the harvest was expected to be even higher, but the climatic factor took its toll: dry weather in May-June caused significant damage,” confirms Andrey Sizov, director of the Sovekon analytical center (profile agricultural markets).

According to the Center's estimates economic forecasting Gazprombank, the main growth in crop production was achieved through exports, since the domestic market is saturated with domestic agricultural products.

“The potential for import substitution is almost exhausted. The exception is greenhouse tomatoes, where the share of imports in 2018 was 58%. There is also seasonal import of cheap potatoes in March-May, when the new harvest has not yet been received and the old one has become substandard. It is possible, however, that the import of sweet peppers will be displaced, but similar projects are not yet of interest to investors,” sums up Maxim Nikitochkin, senior manager of the Ernst & Young agro-industrial services group.

Officials made a bet on exports several years ago. The low exchange rate of the ruble gave agricultural products additional competitive advantages, which would have been irrational not to take advantage of. The agricultural export program was approved, according to which by 2024 the volume of external supplies of grain crops alone should reach $11.4 billion.

Growth reserves

In 2017, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture proposed subsidizing the export of grain from regions remote from export sites, primarily from Siberia and the Urals, towards ports. A zero rate of export customs duty on wheat was also introduced, and investments in the development of logistics infrastructure, including capacities for transshipment of grains and oilseeds, increased.

Subsidizing measures have proven to be effective. In 2018, Russia took first place in the world in wheat exports, occupying 20% ​​of the global market with a production volume of 8.4 million tons. The share of grains in total exports is at least 40%, and it has been growing in recent years. At the same time, in foreign markets, plant growers are noticeably represented by only four grain and leguminous crops (crops whose fruits are harvested only for the use of dry grains): wheat, barley, corn and peas. Wheat still dominates among them. Thus, the Russian Grain Union predicts that in the 2019/20 season, export supplies of wheat will amount to 35 million tons. For comparison, shipments of barley and corn will reach 6 million tons and 5 million tons, respectively.

Thus, a correction in global demand for wheat or the emergence of new large exporters on the market can automatically lead to overproduction of grain in Russia. “The leading countries in importing Russian grain, Egypt and Turkey, are unlikely to significantly increase the volume of purchases. Most likely, growth in the next few years will not exceed 10%, which is primarily due to high competition for supplies to these countries. The political situation may play a role. No new countries will appear on the list of importers of domestic crops with large volumes of purchases,” believes Maxim Nikitochkin.

At the same time, there is reason to believe that the supply of the domestic market abroad will increase. The next harvest is also expected to be high. “This year, the area allocated for winter crops is close to a record, which can be the key to a very good harvest in 2020. The condition of the plants is generally good. There is a small problem - a lack of moisture reserves in the soil due to the dry autumn, but overall the situation is better than last year. The final harvest will depend, to a greater extent than usual, on the amount of precipitation in winter and early spring,” Andrei Sizov shares his forecast.

However, export diversification is underway. “The main trend of the past year was a high, 20% increase in volumes of oilseeds - sunflower, soybean and rapeseed and their processed products. Russia is becoming an increasingly prominent exporter of vegetable oils. These crops have the greatest potential for further growth,” says Andrey Nagurny, head of the restructuring and financial recovery group at Deloitte, CIS.

Grains and oilseeds will remain the basis of exports of crop products next year. Still, manufacturers will have to actively look for new markets. There is a chance for this. “It is possible to significantly increase the volume of grain exports to Asia: Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, as well as to Libya. Here the growth can be 75–95%. African countries are a promising but still developing region for export,” confirms Maxim Nikitochkin.

There is room for more soybean supplies to China due to the country's trade war with the US, even as the Chinese have sharply increased their purchases of soybeans from South America. To implement this plan, officials are going to compensate soybean producers from the Far East for part of the costs of transporting agricultural machinery and fertilizers.

“Domestic oilseeds have good sales potential in some markets of China and Southeast Asia, and lentils in Iran and India,” adds Andrey Nagurny.

The task of expanding the geography of supplies is not easy, but it can be solved, as practice shows. For example, in 2017, many Siberian regions were able to increase the supply of rapeseed to China and Mongolia several times. Last year, largely due to supplies to the countries of the Middle East, barley exports were almost tripled in almost a year.

Grain market - research, prepared by specialists of the Expert Analytical Center for Agribusiness "AB-Center" www.site. This review analyzes the situation Russian market grain, presents statistical data on production, export, import of grain by type, grain prices. Some trends in the global grain market are also displayed. Below in the text are links leading to updated and expanded materials regarding the grain market by type.

Grain market- the largest market of agricultural raw materials, which forms all other agricultural and food markets. Grain is used both as a raw material for the food industry (food production) and as feed in livestock farming. In connection with the latter, the situation on the grain market may also affect the markets for oilseeds (oilseed cakes and meal also form the feed base for the livestock industry).

Russian grain market

The Russian grain market is one of the largest grain markets in the world in terms of volume. For example, Russia is in third place in the world in wheat production (8.3% of world production) and in exports of this type of grain (12.6% of world trade).

Russia ranks 1st in the world in barley production (14.2% of world production) and 4th in its exports (12.0% of world trade).

Gradually, Russia is also taking first positions in the world in those types of grain, the production of which was at a relatively low level even on a national scale. For example, corn production in the Russian Federation in 2001 was just over 0.8 million tons; in 2015 it reached 13.2 million tons. International comparisons of corn production and foreign trade are provided at the following links:

Grain production in Russia

Grain production in Russia as a whole has an upward trend, which is facilitated by the growth of both domestic consumption and the increase in global demand in the grain market, the development of export logistics and infrastructure.

Grain production in Russia, including leguminous crops, reached 104.8 million tons at the end of 2015 - at the level of 2014. In the structure of grain production, wheat ranks first (59.0% of all harvests), barley is in second place (16.7%), corn is in third (12.6%), oats are in fourth (4.3%) . Rye closes the top five largest grain types in terms of production volume (2.0%). Peas (1.6%), rice (1.1%), and buckwheat (0.8%) also occupy high positions in the overall structure of production of grains and leguminous crops.

Analysis of the grain market over the long term shows a steady increase in the production of wheat, rice, buckwheat and corn, and a decrease in the production of oats and rye. The latter is due to the fact that oats and rye are used less and less as feed in the livestock industry, where, in conditions of a significant increase in production volumes, the need for feed is constantly growing. More details - follow the links:

Updating data on grain harvests by type:

Export of grain from Russia

The volume of grain exports from Russia has been steadily increasing in recent years. Thus, in 2015, the total volume of grain exports (including legumes) reached 31,182.8 thousand tons, which is 1.7% or 514.1 thousand tons more than in 2014.

The basis of grain exports from Russia in 2015 were wheat (67.0% of total grain supplies to other countries), barley (16.9%), corn (11.8%), and peas (1.9%).

In 2016, there was a further increase in the volume of grain supplies abroad.

Thus, in January-September 2016, the total export volume reached 24,208.1 thousand tons, which is 18.5% or 3,774.6 thousand tons more than in the same period in 2015. At the same time, wheat exports increased by 32.1% or 4,268.4 thousand tons, corn by 41.9% or 1,003.5 thousand tons, rice by 18.1% or 20.7 thousand. tons, buckwheat by 21.2% or 2.1 thousand tons, millet by 26.6% or 12.8 thousand tons, peas by 49.5% or 191.4 thousand tons, beans by 677 .5% or 0.3 thousand tons, lentils by 358.7% or 8.4 thousand tons. At the same time, exports of barley decreased by 39.7% or 1,514.4 thousand tons, rye by 97.0% or 100.7 thousand tons, oats by 8.0% or 0.9 thousand. tons, sorghum by 47.3% or 17.1 thousand tons, chickpeas by 46.7% or 100.0 thousand tons.

Grain export data update:

Import of grain to Russia

Grain imports to Russia are not carried out on a large-scale basis. Only the volumes of rice imports are at relatively high levels. Lentils, beans and barley are also imported for the brewing industry. Corn seeds are supplied to the country in fairly large volumes for sowing. The share of imported corn seeds for sowing in the total seeding material in 2015, according to AB-Center estimates, was 59.5%. The high dependence of the market is largely due to the rapid annual expansion of growing areas. The supply of domestically produced seeds is not growing as noticeably.

Grain and its processed products are one of the main types of food for the population of the entire globe and the basis of the country’s food security. The most stable demand for food products is for meat, grain and sugar.

The grain market is a multifactorial concept, including gross production, crop area, yield, domestic consumption in the country, the balance of supply and demand on the world market, the price of goods, logistics during sales and many other interrelated factors.

World grain production, depending on the year, fluctuates between 2.1-2.3 billion tons. The production of grain sufficient to supply the country is the basis of its food security. According to world food standards, safety is considered ensured if carryover grain reserves in relation to the level of consumption are at least 17%. The World Grains Council (JGC) estimates the world grain harvest for 2016-2017 at 2120 million tons. And despite the expected record global grain consumption, ending stocks will also be record and rising for the fourth year in a row.

In Fig. 1 shows the dynamics of gross yields, yields and sown areas in Russia over the past 15 years. Analysis of the presented data shows that over the past five years, gross grain production has had a steady growth trend and is approaching 105-110 million tons, and in 2016. reached 120.7 million tons.

Figure 1 - Cultivated area

Cultivated areas have only begun to increase in recent years, and only slightly. Thus, over the past five years they have increased by 3 million hectares and reached 48 million hectares. However, this figure did not reach the level of sown areas sown with grain in 1990, when 63.0 million hectares were sown, and the gross harvest reached 120 million tons with an average yield of 19.5 c/ha.

The sown areas of the South of Russia are used almost completely, and the growth of gross harvests in the South is only due to an increase in average yield, which reaches 50 c/ha, with the average yield in Russia being 22-24 c/ha.
Based on the analysis of the given figures and forecast, it can be assumed that in the next 5 years, the gross grain harvest, taking into account the growth of sown areas and yields, can reach 120-125 million tons.

For comparison, Figure 2 shows information on grain yields in the main grain-producing countries for 2014, from which it can be seen that Russia is 2 times behind EU countries in terms of yields, and 2-4 times behind feed grains.

Figure 2 - Grain yield in the main grain-producing countries in 2014, c/ha

The structure of grain production by regions of Russia is presented in Fig. 3, from which it can be seen that 12 regions of Russia produce 60% of the gross grain harvest, and the regions located in the European part (10) are in almost the same climatic conditions with the EU, Canada and the main part of the USA, which confirms the potential for increasing yields in the Russian Federation.

Figure 3 - Main grain producing regions in the Russian Federation

For information, it should be noted that in Russia, with the annual production of mineral fertilizers amounting to 20 million tons, only 2 million tons (10%) are used in Russia itself, and the rest are exported.
At the same time, in Russia an average of 34-45 kg/ha of fertilizers are applied per 1 ha, while in EU countries it is 300-350 kg/ha, i.e. 7-8 times more. Hence the conclusion regarding both yield and grain quality.

In the structure of world grain production, Russia ranks 4th after the USA, China and India (not counting the EU as a whole).

Due to the growth of the world's population, it is expected that the demand for grain will increase to 2.5 billion tons, and the potential for increasing grain production in Russia will be in demand.
If in past years, when analyzing the Russian grain market, it was believed that an increase in gross grain harvests, with a little changing volume of domestic consumption, Russia could increase the amount of exported grain, which in fact was the case, then from this year, taking into account the ever-increasing grain carryovers in the world and in For Russia in particular, the question of emerging difficulties in the sale of grain is looming. The grain market becomes overcrowded, grain surpluses appear, grain sales prices decrease and the grain producer’s profitability from growing grain decreases. The dynamics of the grain balance in Russia over the past 10 years are presented in Figure 4.

Figure 4 - Dynamics of grain balance in Russia

From the data in this figure it is clear that Russia, starting from 2010. completely self-sufficient in grain, and its carryover reserves at the beginning of the harvest did not fall below 17-20% of the volume of annual consumption within the country.
- Gross harvests are constantly (except for two lean years) increasing and have almost reached the level provided for by the Agricultural Development Program until 2020 - 115 million tons.
- Grain resources are constantly increasing and at this time are approaching 150 million tons.
- Domestic use increases very little and only reaches a maximum of 74 million tons.

The volumes and directions of grain use in Russia are presented in Figure 5.

Figure 5 - Grain consumption in the Russian Federation and possible reserves for its growth

Analysis of the data presented in Figure 5 shows that domestic grain consumption in Russia includes its processing (the main volume of consumption), use for seeds and for feed purposes.
The volume of grain processed and used for food production has remained virtually unchanged in recent years and amounts to 45-47 million tons.

The volumes of grain used for feed and sowing purposes also practically do not change from year to year, because The area under crops for grain and livestock increases slightly, and these volumes amount to 10-11 million tons for sowing purposes, and also for use for fodder 10-11 million tons.

The entire surplus of grain is used to create a carryover stock, which should not be too large, and mainly for grain exports, which has been constantly increasing in recent years, as can be seen from the data presented in Figure 4.
World grain exports, according to USDA forecasts, amount to 325-335 million tons. The first place in terms of grain export volumes is occupied by the United States, 69-70 million tons; Russia, depending on the year, ranks 3-4.

Taking into account the constant competition in the grain market, the growing volumes of grain production and carry-over stocks, the low quality of Russian wheat, the sanctions of the European Union, the United States and other countries imposed on Russia and the geopolitical situation in the world, the export of Russian grain will be gradually limited and, presumably, will not exceed 40 -45 million tons


Figure 6 - Business case: US experience in expanding domestic demand for grain

For comparison, Figure 6 shows the volumes of domestic grain consumption in the United States. From the presented data it is clear that over three years the volume of domestic grain consumption in the United States increased by 11 million tons, mainly due to the processing of corn into bioethanol and the production of other food products from wheat, i.e. due to deep processing of grain.

Thus, the time has come when, taking into account the above factors, it is necessary to change approaches to the grain market and not limit it only to exports and domestic consumption.

It is necessary to develop in Russia deep processing of grain in order to obtain new products from it and replace them with products imported to Russia and export not grain (raw materials for obtaining new products), but products of its processing with added value - flour, cereals, bioethanol, dry gluten, high-calorie feed for birds and animals and other types of goods.

Literature
1. Vetelkin G.V. Grain market: The global export market has fallen. J. "Agribusiness", Krasnodar, 2009, No. 1, pp. 24-29.
2. Vetelkin G.V. Grain balance of Russia. J. "Agobusiness", Krasnodar, 2011 No. 3, pp. 12-19.
3. http://agrovesti.net/zenovie/mirovoy_rinok. Agrovestnik. The world wheat market, the role and place of Russia in this market. International independent Institute of Agricultural Policy. Cereals. 06.28.16.
4. Government program development of agriculture and relation of markets for agricultural products, raw materials and food for 2013-2020, approved by Government Decree Russian Federation dated July 14, 2012 No. 717.
5 S. Phillips, R. Norton. Wheat grain production and use of mineral fertilizers in the world. http://eeca.ru.ipini.net/EECARU-2163/ 02/08/2013/

Vetelkin G.V., Candidate of Technical Sciences
KB FGBNU "All-Russian Research Institute of Grain", Krasnodar
e- mail: gvetelkin@ mail. ru

The article was published in the collection:
Modern methods, means and standards in the field of assessing the quality of grain and grain products: Collection of materials of the 14th All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference (June 5-9, 2017, Anapa) / KF FGBNU “VNIIZ”. - Anapa, 2017. - pp. 16-21 (Electronic resource)

The market for grain and grain products is an integral part of the market for agricultural raw materials and food and largely determines the development of a number of branches of the agro-industrial complex. Grain serves as a raw material for some branches of the food, feed, chemical, textile industries and is a source of feed for livestock and poultry. In 2011, per capita consumption of bread and bakery products in Russia was 119 kg, with a rational nutritional norm of 95-105 kg. Directly from grain processing products (bread, flour, cereals, etc.) about 40% of the total calorie intake, almost 50% of the protein requirement, and 60% of the carbohydrate requirement are provided.

The grain is well stored (shrinkage does not exceed 3% per year), therefore it is especially suitable for creating state reserves of food and feed. It is easily transported over long distances, and therefore is widely used as imported feed at poultry farms and livestock complexes. A significant part of the grain is used for the production of flour, cereals and animal feed (Table 11.1). In 2011, 47.4 million tons of grain (54.1%) were spent on this, 10.6 million tons (12.1%) were spent on livestock and poultry feed, and 10.3 million tons were spent on seeds (11. 8%), export - 18.3 million tons (20.9%). Compared to 1990, the use of grain for processing decreased by half, for seeds - by 39.4%, for feed - by 21.5%, at the same time, grain exports increased ninefold.

Table 11.1

Grain use in Russia, million tons

Indicators			Years
Grain use: Industrial consumption,
including:
for seeds
for livestock and poultry feed
Processed into flour, cereals, animal feed and other purposes

The main channels for the sale of grain by agricultural organizations are processing enterprises and wholesale trade (Table 11.2). In 2010, their share accounted for 85.7% of grain sales. Every year their share in grain sales increased. 9.2% of grain sold was supplied to the population through public catering organizations and as payment for labor. Sales of products through this sales channel tend to decline. 2.1% of grain was exchanged through barter transactions, and in recent years their share in the volume of grain sales has decreased by 5 times. Only 3% of grain was purchased for state and municipal needs.

Table 11.2

Sales of grain by agricultural organizations through separate channels (% of sales volume)

An important role in the development and operation of grain market infrastructure facilities, the realization of the export potential of Russian grain on the world market and the conduct of trade and procurement activities in the domestic grain market is played by the state agro-industrial company OJSC United Grain Company.

The priority areas of activity of this company are increasing the volume of purchases and sales of grain on the domestic market, the volume of grain exports, modernization and construction of elevators and port terminals.

The grain company includes 31 enterprises located in 18 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Long term strategy The company provides for investments in new infrastructure facilities and the creation of a large own transport and logistics complex.

OJSC "United Grain Company" is a government agent in conducting procurement and commodity interventions in the grain market, the main goal of which is to support domestic agricultural producers and increase competitiveness.

The economic situation that is developing in the grain and grain products market is characterized by production and sales volumes, price levels, exports and imports of products (Table 11.3).

Table 11.3

Market conditions for grain and grain products in Russia

Indicators			Years
Grain production volume, million tons
Sold by agricultural grain producers, million tons
Grain exports, million tons
Grain imports, million tons
Produced, million tons
compound feed
bread and bakery products
pasta
Export, thousand tons:
Import, thousand tons:
Sales volume in wholesale trade, thousand tons:
pasta
Sales volume in retail trade, million tons: bread products (flour, cereals, bread and pasta in terms of

Indicators	Years
pasta
Manufacturer price per kg, rub.
wheat flour
buckwheat
bakery products
Consumer price per kg, rub.
compound feed
wheat flour
bread and bakery products
polished rice
pasta

The supply of grain is greatly influenced by the volume of its production. During the years of agrarian reforms (1990-2011), the gross grain harvest (in weight after processing) decreased from 116.7 to 94.2 million tons (by 19.3%) as a result of a reduction in the crop area from 63.1 to 43.6 million ha (by 31.8%). At the same time, the yield of grain crops increased from 16.8 to 22.4 centners per 1 hectare of harvested area (by 33.3%). Since 2000, there has been an increase not only in yields, but also in grain production volumes.

The decisive role in grain production belongs to four federal districts: Southern, where 24% of grain is produced, Volga (23%), Central (18%), Siberian (16%). They account for 81% of the gross grain harvest.

Wheat occupies the leading place in the grain wedge of Russia. Its share accounts for 58.7% of the sown area of ​​grain crops, of which the share of spring wheat is 31.6%. The share of barley is 18.1%, oats - 7.0, corn for grain - 3.9, legumes - 3.6, rye - 3.5, buckwheat - 2.1, millet - 1.9%. Over the years of reforms, the share of food crops in the structure of grain crop areas has increased and the share of forage crops has decreased. This is due to a sharp reduction in livestock numbers.

Wheat production is concentrated in the North Caucasus, Siberian, Ural, Volga, and Central federal districts. Winter wheat is mainly cultivated in the North Caucasus and Central federal districts, spring wheat in the Volga, Siberian, and Ural regions.

The main producers of rye are the farms of the Volga, Ural, and Central federal districts. Corn for grain is grown in two districts: North Caucasus and Volga.

In general, the Russian grain industry almost completely satisfies the country's needs through its own production. On average per capita grain production for 2009-2011. was about 590 kg, which is 2.5 times less than in the USA and 3.5 times less than in Canada. According to the grain balance of Russia, the level of self-sufficiency in grain exceeds 90%, while in the EU countries it is 110-115%, and in the USA - 145-150%.

The main focus in Russia is on the production of food grains: it accounts for more than 60% of gross harvests, while in the EU countries it is 50-56%, and in the USA no more than 30%. The requirement for food grains, assumed to be 165 kg per capita, is generally satisfied. There is only a shortage of hard and strong wheat grain, the share of which in the total volume of purchases has not exceeded 10% in recent years. World and domestic experience shows that as the population’s consumption of livestock products increases, the main problem becomes meeting the need for feed grain.

The main grain producers in the Russian Federation are agricultural organizations: in 2011, they accounted for 76.8% of the gross harvest. The share of peasant (farm) farms was 22.1%; The role of personal subsidiary plots is insignificant (less than 1%).

An important role in grain production belongs to the largest and most efficient enterprises: CJSC Agrocomplex of the Krasnodar Territory with a sown area of ​​35 thousand hectares and a production volume of 210 thousand tons of grain, CJSC Vostok Zernoprodukt of the Republic of Tatarstan, where the corresponding figures were 57 thousand hectares and 171 thousand tons, Pobeda LLC of the Stavropol Territory - 23 thousand hectares and 100 thousand tons, Iskra CJSC - 23 thousand hectares of crops and 97 thousand tons of grain, etc. On large farms, the yield is 40-60 kg per 1 ha, the level of grain profitability ranges from 70 to 110%.

Due to the sharp reduction in the number of animals, the need for grain for feed purposes has decreased. This led to a reduction in grain import purchases by an order of magnitude or more - from 20 million tons in 1990 to 700 thousand tons in 2011. Since 1993, Russia has resumed grain exports; in 2011 it amounted to 18.3 million tons. stabilization in the domestic market, a decree of the Government of the Russian Federation imposed a temporary ban on the export of grain, which was in effect until June 30, 2011. As a result, grain exports in 2010 amounted to 63.6% of its volume in 2009. In addition, a decision was made on a temporary reduction to zero of the rates of import customs duties on certain types of grain crops, the supply of which is insufficient on the domestic market (buckwheat, barley, corn).

In conditions market economy The main factor influencing the development of grain farming is demand. The demand for feed grains has sharply decreased as a result of a decrease in the number of animals; At the same time, imports of feed grains decreased significantly, and imports of livestock products increased accordingly. Since the demand for bakery products will not increase in the future, an increase in grain production is possible mainly due to the development of livestock farming and increasing exports. Obviously, the state should provide the industry with some assistance in these areas.

The development of the grain market largely determines the level of food security of the country. In accordance with generally accepted international standards, it is determined by the volume of grain reserves carried over to the next harvest. A safe stock level is considered to correspond to 60 days of grain consumption, or 17% of annual consumption. Recently in the Russian Federation it was 14-16%.

Reception, cleaning, drying, storage and processing of grain are of great importance in moving grain to the consumer. This is done by agricultural, grain receiving and processing enterprises.

Grain is stored in piles, granaries and elevators. In many agricultural enterprises, grain is stored in granaries with a capacity of 100 to 5000 tons, and during the harvesting period it is temporarily stored in piles. Burms mean batches of grain laid according to certain rules outside the storage facility (in the open air), in a mound or container. Temporary storage of grain in piles is an extreme measure; grain in piles is exposed to various external factors, as a result of which it deteriorates, sprouts and spontaneous combustion occurs.

At grain collection points and processing plants, along with warehouses (grain silos), there are elevators. A grain elevator is a structure for storing large quantities of grain and bringing it to condition. In our country, elevators with a capacity of 15 to 150 thousand tons have been built. Since 2000, elevators with a production capacity of 50-60 thousand tons have been put into operation in Russia every year.

An important factor in the effective storage of grain is its low humidity, which should not exceed 15%. However, due to non-compliance with storage conditions, grain losses are high. They amount to about 1 million tons per year. Therefore, it is economically profitable to store grain in a dry state using various auxiliary techniques (cleaning from impurities, active ventilation, protection from pests, diseases, etc.).

Storage has a significant impact on the economic efficiency of the grain industry. The grain market is characterized by seasonal price fluctuations with relatively low autumn and high spring prices. Due to the lack of modern grain storage facilities in many farms and the high cost of storage at elevators, they are forced to sell grain to intermediaries, mainly immediately after harvest (in the autumn) at low prices.

Grain processing is carried out by enterprises of the flour-grinding and feed milling industries. In the process of grain processing, flour, cereals and mixed feed are obtained. Flour is obtained by grinding grain in mills. It is the main raw material for baking, production of pasta and confectionery flour products. Cereal is the inner part of the grain, freed from the shell. Compound feeds are ready-made feed mixtures prepared according to scientifically based recipes.

In Russia, there are trends towards reducing flour production and increasing the production of cereals and animal feed. From 2000 to 2011, flour production decreased from 12.1 to 10.0 million tons (by 19.0%), cereal production increased from 0.9 to 1.0 million tons (by 11.0%), and feed - from 8.0 million tons to 18.0 million tons (2-3 times). In recent years (except 2010), the export of flour and cereals has increased and the import of flour has decreased.

Wholesale trade plays a certain role in the sale of grain products. In 2011, the share of flour sales by wholesale trade organizations in its resources (total volume of production and imports) was 5.6%, compared to 2000 it decreased by 5.8 percentage points, the share of cereals was 25%, pasta products - 16.8%, they respectively decreased by 19 and 2 percentage points. For 2000-2011 the volume of sales of flour in wholesale trade decreased from 1347 to 693 thousand tons (almost 2 times), cereals - from 375 to 364 thousand tons (by 3%) and the sales volume of pasta increased from 128 to 163 thousand tons (by 27.0%).

Retail trade plays the main role in the sale of grain products. The volume of sales of grain products in retail trade remained virtually unchanged. Share of flour sales retail trade its resources account for 31%, cereals and pasta - over 90%.

During the period from 2000 to 2011, prices for grain and grain products increased sharply. However, consumer prices rose at a faster rate than producer prices. Consumer prices for wheat flour increased by 2.5 times, bread and bakery products - by 3.7 times, polished rice - by 3.1 times, pasta - by 2.6 times; producer prices for grain increased 2.5 times.

The growth rates of producer prices for grain varied sharply by crop (Table 11.4). For 2000-2011 the price of buckwheat increased by

3.5 times, and for corn - 2.2 times. In 2011, the highest price was for buckwheat (15.68 rubles/kg), and the lowest for oats (4.50 rubles/kg).

Producer prices for grain vary not only by crop, but also by constituent entity of the Russian Federation. In the Central Federal District they ranged from 3.96 rubles/kg in the Tambov region to 6.03 rubles/kg in the Yaroslavl region, in the Southern Federal District - respectively, from 3.93 rubles/kg in the Volgograd region to 5.23 rubles. /kg in the Krasnodar Territory, in the Siberian Federal District - from 3.57 rubles/kg in the Omsk region to 6.14 rubles/kg in the Republic of Buryatia.

Table 11.4

Average prices of grain producers (RUB per 1 kg)

	Years
Cereals
Corn
Pulses

In order to stabilize prices and maintain the incomes of agricultural producers, the state carries out purchasing interventions in years when supply exceeds demand, i.e. There is a surplus of grain on the market as a result of high grain yields, and conversely, in years when demand exceeds supply, commodity interventions are carried out. From November 2, 2009 to April 15, 2010, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture carried out state purchasing interventions in relation to grain from the 2009 harvest, as a result of which 1,743 thousand tons of grain were supplied to the intervention fund. At the end of 2010, commodity interventions were carried out, as a result of which 155 thousand tons of grain were sold. In 2011, 2.5 million tons of grain were sold from the reserves of the intervention fund.

The increase in consumer prices for grain products has practically not reduced the demand for bakery products, since they still remain the lowest compared to prices for other food products.

Price disparity in commodity volumes and high inflation rates caused a decrease in the profitability of sold grain. Over the period from 1990 to 2011, the profitability level decreased from 158 to 21.4%. The achieved level of profitability does not allow for expanded reproduction in grain farming. Therefore, an indispensable condition for increasing grain production is increasing its efficiency.

Factors influencing the efficiency of cultivating grain crops can be combined into three main groups: agrotechnical and biological; technical (machinery and equipment systems); organizational and economic.

In the first group, the most important is the use of promising varieties and hybrids of grain crops in grain production, the use of scientifically based systems of fertilizers, soil cultivation, measures to combat pests and plant diseases; in the second group - machine systems for carrying out production processes and operations during soil cultivation, plant care, harvesting and grain cleaning, equipment for its drying and storage; in the third - supply and demand, labor organization, material incentive system, government regulation and economic relations.

Further intensification of the industry will contribute to increasing the economic efficiency of grain farming. An important factor in intensification is improving the technology of cultivating grain crops.

The main directions for improving technologies in grain farming are as follows:

• optimization of plant nutrition by applying the required amount of fertilizers strictly according to the norms and timing for the programmed harvest;
• the use of high-yielding varieties and hybrids of grain crops that are resistant to lodging, diseases and pests;
• application of the most rational plant placement schemes according to the best predecessors in the crop rotation system, allowing for efficient use of land and equipment;
• reducing the number of agricultural techniques based on their combination in combined units (pre-sowing soil preparation, sowing, fertilizing, etc.);
• continuous execution of operations within individual technological stages (harvesting, clearing fields of straw, etc.);
• application of integrated plant protection systems from diseases, pests and weeds;
• timely and high-quality implementation of all technological methods based on comprehensive mechanization of production.

These areas are most fully implemented in intensive and resource-saving technologies for cultivating grain crops. The experience of leading farms shows that the use of intensive technologies is always economically profitable.

An indispensable condition for obtaining high yields is the use of mineral fertilizers. As scientific data and practical experience show, the yield increase from applying scientifically based doses of mineral fertilizers to main grain crops averages 4-6 centners per 1 ha (for the conditions of the Central Black Earth Zone). As a rule, the cost of fertilizers is recouped by the increase in production. However, many farms do not have the funds to purchase them. In this regard, government support is needed so that soil fertility does not decrease and grain production increases.

Grain yields also largely depend on the quality of the seeds. Farms mainly sow seeds of class I of the sowing standard, but at least 10% of seeds belong to class II, characterized by lower germination (92%). Hence the excess consumption of seeds by 5-10% of the sowing norm. Sowing only quality seeds that meet the standard will reduce their consumption and increase productivity by 20-25%.

A significant increase in yield and gross grain yield can be achieved as a result of reducing losses during harvesting. As the experience of leading grain-producing farms shows, harvesting at the optimal time (10-14 days) allows you to save up to 15-20% of the harvest.

A prerequisite for highly profitable grain farming is the rational use of grown products. When the market infrastructure is insufficiently developed, when there are difficulties with the sale of products, non-payments, it is advisable to sell not raw materials, but processed products. It is economically profitable to process grain at the place of its production, which allows rational use of all grown products.

To overcome local monopolism in the field of processing and rational use of grown products, it is necessary to more widely develop cooperation and integration of agricultural producers and processors of raw materials through the creation of integrated structures.

In a market economy, highly profitable grain farming is possible only if production is focused on demand. It is advisable to create a marketing service, firstly, at the largest agricultural enterprises that produce a wide range of products, and secondly, at farms that sell a significant part of their products outside their administrative district or region.

And yet, in the current economic conditions, with high inflation, price disparity, insolvency of many agricultural enterprises, highly profitable management of the industry is impossible without state support. The state must provide compensation to grain producers for part of the costs of purchasing certain material resources, subsidize interest rates for short-term and long-term loans.

State regulation is an important condition for the effective functioning of the grain market. Its goal is to stabilize price fluctuations in the domestic market, increase the competitiveness of Russian grain and its processed products on the world market.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

• smoothing out seasonal fluctuations in prices for grain and its processed products;
• modernization of grain products subcomplex enterprises;
• increasing the income of agricultural producers;
• stimulating the transportation of grain and its processed products from remote regions of the Russian Federation, which have high production potential, to regions of consumption, as well as for export.

Measures of state regulation of the grain market include government procurement and commodity interventions, including in the form of collateral transactions, compensation of part of the costs of transporting grain and its processed products, as well as forecasting the structure of production and consumption by developing a balance of grain supply and demand.

Prices during government procurement and commodity interventions should take into account the current level of costs for grain production and the profitability of its sales.

To ensure the effectiveness of government interventions, a specialized financial fund can be created, the funds of which are used to finance the purchase of products. The conditions for creating a specialized financial fund are established by the Government of the Russian Federation.

To develop the market for grain and its processed products, additional government support measures are needed in the form of compensation for part of the costs of their transportation from geographically remote territories to sales markets.