What will happen to the ruble, dollar and oil. What will happen to the ruble, dollar and oil New measures are needed to revive the economy

The most pessimistic forecasts have become a reality, in January the value of the dollar has already overcome the mark of 82 rubles. At the same time, the euro exchange rate is about 90 rubles / euro.

The historical minimum of the Russian currency is associated with a record collapse in oil prices. In the near future, the devaluation of the ruble may continue, experts say.

Oil anchor

The current positions of the ruble are fully consistent with fundamental factors, the head of the Central Bank believes Elvira Nabiullina. The Russian currency reacts to the fall in oil prices, which approached the mark of 28 dollars per barrel. The collapse of "black gold" is associated with the resumption of supplies of Iranian oil, when the supply already significantly exceeded the level of consumption.

Experts Sberbank CIB believe that the problems of the ruble are connected with the position of large exporters. According to the results of last year, companies keep about 60% of foreign exchange earnings, against 46% in 2014. These trends lead to a gradual weakening of the Russian currency, which will be observed during the first quarter. In addition to negative factors, the dollar exchange rate forecast for March 2016 will depend on positive trends.

Analysts Gazprombank confident in the stabilization of the foreign exchange market in the near future. Oil will cease to exert a dominant influence on the dynamics of the ruble, giving way to a strong balance of payments. It is the positive balance of foreign trade (about $55 billion in 2016, with an average cost of $38 per barrel) that will help the ruble stop its fall.

Another positive factor for the Russian currency is the reduction in the debt burden. According to experts of the Central Bank, Russian companies will have to repay $30 billion this year, against $65 billion a year earlier.

Further dynamics of the dollar and the euro in Russia is controversial among experts, which is confirmed by various forecasts of the exchange rate for March 2016.

From recovery to collapse

Representatives of Gazprombank believe that in the current situation, the ruble has prospects for strengthening. According to their estimates, the Russian currency will gradually restore its positions to 72 rubles / dollar.

Dollar in the range of 82-84 rubles. analysts expect Danske Bank. Another negative factor for the Russian economy is the slowdown in China's GDP growth. Without positive news from China, it will be difficult for the ruble to recover its value. Analysts APEKON at the end of the first quarter expect the dollar for 80-82 rubles. At the same time, the forecast for the euro exchange rate for March 2016 is approaching 85-87 rubles / euro.

The dynamics of the European currency will lag behind the dollar, which is associated with the policy of the Fed. The American economy is signaling the beginning of a recovery phase, which allows the regulator to gradually raise the rate. In turn, the eurozone countries have not yet overcome the consequences of the economic slowdown. As a result, the value of the euro will gradually decline. Also, the European Union will have to resolve issues with the influx of refugees and the debts of Greece. At the same time, there remains uncertainty about the future participation of the UK in the EU.

The current weakening of the ruble can lead not only to accelerated inflation, but also to new problems in the banking sector, experts warn. In the near future, financial institutions will not be able to comply with the established standards. This will lead to the curtailment of credit, which will hold back the economic recovery. The situation can be improved by active actions on the part of the Central Bank, which can soften its requirements for the implementation of standards.

The president Vladimir Putin believes that the weak ruble will create additional opportunities for business representatives. Russian companies will be able to strengthen their positions in the domestic market, which will bring positive results in the future.

Hi all! Today I have prepared for you a fresh forecast for April 2016. In it, I decided to touch upon such technical instruments as oil, the dollar, the euro and the ruble, in general, all the most important things that my subscribers may be interested in. Get familiar with.

Oil Price Forecast April 2016

Let's start with the most important thing for all Russian citizens, namely the oil price forecast. Experienced analysts assure that in April 2016 the cost of oil will continue to increase. The main reason for the price growth is the expectation by the financial market of the results of the OPEC negotiations, which will be held on April 17. At the meeting, major oil-producing countries should agree to reduce oil production in order to increase its cost. You can find out more about this.

Due to the rise in oil prices (for comparison: in January, 1 barrel of oil cost $27, and in March - $40), investments in shale oil production in the United States dropped sharply, which also led to an increase in oil prices.

Due to the fact that the oil price forecast for April 2016 is positive, improvements are also expected in the Russian economy. For example, in Russia, GDP indicators for the first quarter of 2016 have already improved.

The forecasts of the US investment bank JP Morgan, which predicted a decline in the Russian economy by 1.5-2%, did not come true. Due to the increase in oil prices, the decline was less significant and amounted to only 0.8%.

So, the oil price forecast for April 2016 suggests that in April oil will continue to rise in price, until April 17 for sure. No one can tell you the exact numbers, but presumably the price level will fluctuate around the $45 mark.

Ruble forecast for April 2016

The sharp fall of the ruble was provoked by a large number of factors, including the sanctions that were imposed on the Russian Federation. Experienced politicians and experts suggest that in 2016 friendly relations will improve between the countries, which will lead, first of all, to stability.

If in the future the economic and geopolitical components become aggravated, then the ruble may become a little cheaper. Moreover, in Russia there are still reserve reserves that the government can use, if desired, to influence the exchange rate of the ruble. But since these funds are still in stocks, we can conclude that the government considers their use to strengthen the ruble inappropriate.

The opinions of experts regarding the ruble exchange rate differ, some foretell its reduction in price, others - an increase in price. The exchange rate of the ruble largely depends on the country's economy and its policies. If suddenly the conflict continues in Ukraine or hostilities in Syria intensify, this will also negatively affect the country's economy. During the forecast of the ruble exchange rate, one should not lose sight of various force majeure situations that can also undermine the country's economy.

If we exclude all possible negative factors, then we can say with confidence that the price of the ruble in April 2016 will continue to increase.

Due to the fact that oil, according to forecasts in April 2016, will increase, we can safely say that the ruble will also grow stronger. So, until April 17, you can safely buy rubles on the daily time frame.

It is also worth noting that due to the rise in oil prices, the extraction of shale oil has become unprofitable, and therefore the volume of investment in this business has sharply decreased. If oil prices continue to rise, this will attract new investors, which will also have a positive effect on the value of the ruble. Based on all this, we conclude that the forecast for the ruble for April 2016 is favorable.

Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast April 2016

The direction of the price of the dollar / ruble pair largely depends on the value of the dollar, so it is worth paying attention to it. The latest April 2016 forecast is only positive for us. This means that the price level of the dollar/ruble pair will only go down. Experienced experts assure that the value of the dollar in April will be 62 rubles. Such conclusions were made by Natalya Milchakova, who currently holds the position of director of the analytical department of Alpari.

In my opinion, the fall may be slightly different; on April 17, the price level of the dollar / ruble currency pair will fluctuate between 60-65 rubles. A sharp jump in the price of this pair can happen on April 17, the day of the meeting of representatives of large oil companies.

It is possible that on this day the price may roll back down due to the fact that the meeting participants will not come to a common denominator. It is likely that the decisions made at the meeting will not confirm the forecasts, as a result of which the price will go down sharply. April 17 is an important day for exchange workers, for which they are already preparing today.

If you are an experienced trader and know what you are doing, then on Monday April 18 you can make good money. And if you are still a beginner and cannot predict the direction of price movement, then by May 17 it is best to close all your orders.

When discussing the direction of the price of the dollar/ruble currency pair, one should not forget about the dollar. The United States is interested in their currency being expensive, so they are trying in every way to keep it at a high level. Various emergencies in Europe lead to instability in the EU, as a result of which the euro becomes cheaper and the dollar strengthens.

If we assume that no emergency is expected in April, then we can say with confidence that the price of the dollar / ruble pair will go down.

Euro exchange rate forecast for April 2016

According to Bloomberg experts, the euro will fall against the US dollar and other world currencies. This trend is due to the fact that the European Central Bank intends to further soften its credit policy.

In April of this year, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates and also continue the asset buyback strategy that started in early 2015. This, in turn, will lead to a further decrease in the value of the common European currency.

Bloomberg also claims that by the end of 2016, the value of the euro against the US dollar will decrease by more than 3%. In addition to the actions of the European Central Bank, the reason for this trend, the agency's specialists consider the Fed's increase in the key rate, as well as economic growth in the United States.

Whether these forecasts come true or not depends directly on whether the European Central Bank continues to implement current policies or changes its economic course.

Also, the exchange rate of the European currency may be affected by the changing situation in the foreign exchange market. Since, despite the forecast, oil prices have stopped falling and even started to grow, this may lead to a depreciation of the dollar and an increase in the euro.

You can safely use all this knowledge to trade in the month of April using the described technical instruments. I hope that the April 2016 forecast I have compiled will help you increase your profits in the Forex market.

Despite the optimistic statements of officials, the Russian economy continues to depend on the dynamics of oil prices. In addition to problems with filling the budget, the stability of the domestic currency was under threat.

The forecast for the ruble exchange rate for April 2016 allows for the possibility of a new collapse.

On the brink of collapse

The value of the Russian currency is determined by the trends of the oil market. "Black gold" at any moment can collapse to new lows, which is caused by oversaturation of the market. Oil production continues to outpace current consumption despite exporters' efforts to stabilize the market.

The initiative to cut oil production was made by the representatives of Venezuela. This country is experiencing the most difficulties after the fall in oil prices, and is trying to change the dynamics of the cost. However, reaching a compromise is an almost impossible task, experts warn. Iran and Iraq are interested in expanding their market share and will increase their production of raw materials.

The Ministry of Finance is also confident that the rise in oil prices is being postponed for an indefinite period. According to the deputy head of department Maxim Oreshkin, the low cost of "black gold" will remain for 15 years. Such trends will have a negative impact on the domestic economy, including the position of the ruble.

In 2016, the Russian Federation plans to return to international borrowing market related to the effects of the current crisis. However, attracting financial resources, taking into account the current sanctions, will be very problematic.

new reality

Businessman Oleg Deripaska allows the growth of the value of the dollar to the threshold of 100 rubles. This scenario will become a reality when oil quotes fall below $18. At the same time, the government and the Central Bank are not actively counteracting the crisis, which only aggravates the situation.

The Russian economy remains dependent on external factors, which has become a threat to sustainable development. A high discount rate leads to exorbitant costs of credit resources, which in turn hinders the recovery of economic growth.

Head of Rosneft Igor Sechin does not rule out a decline in oil prices to $10 per barrel, which is the result of active actions on the part of speculators. Under such conditions, the collapse of the Russian currency will reach record levels.

Calculations VTB Capital experts suggest an increase in the rate to 96.3 rubles per dollar if the cost of "black gold" drops to 20 dollars per barrel. The probability of this scenario remains quite high.

Strengthening risks

Experts do not exclude the strengthening of the ruble in the foreseeable future, if external factors are more favorable. However, this situation is fraught with additional risks, says Anna Bodrova from Alpari.

At the moment, the value of the ruble already does not correspond to fundamental factors, which is the main threat to the implementation of the revenue part of the budget. Earlier, there was information about the intention of officials to solve the problems of the budget deficit through additional emission, but representatives of the Central Bank hastened to disown this initiative.

Help the Russian currency can "freeze" oil prices in the range of 35-40 dollars per barrel. To do this, the largest exporters will need to reach a fundamental compromise on maintaining the level of oil production. Such a combination of circumstances will allow the ruble to return to the range of 70-75 rubles / dollar.

The value of the ruble in April 2016 will depend on the trend of oil prices, experts say. At the same time, analysts consider two main scenarios, which will determine the dynamics of the foreign exchange market.

March is coming to an end, and Kommersant offers its economic forecast for the next month. Experts answer questions about what will happen to the dollar to ruble exchange rate, how world oil prices will change, what inflation will turn out to be, and how the dollar and euro will behave in the world currency market.

1. What will be the exchange rate of the ruble?

2. What will be the inflation rate?

3. What will be the price of oil?

4. What will be the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar?

Anatoly Gavrilenko, Chairman of the Financial Literacy Council under the Central Bank of the Russian Federation:

1. I believe that at the end of April the ruble exchange rate will be 65.2–65.3 rubles/$, no more. The reason for this is the conservative position of the Central Bank, the confidence that they are in control of the situation, they understand what is happening in the money market. Elvira Nabiullina demonstrated this perfectly at the last press conference.

2. The price of Brent oil at the end of April is likely to be set at $65-66 per barrel. Consumers will need less fuel due to warming, and shale oil production will develop, there will be more of it on the market. And so far we have been lucky - at the end of March, it reached almost $68 per barrel!

3. At best, inflation will remain at the level of March. The inflation rate in January and February turned out to be better than predicted, March is also likely to not exceed the norm in the region of 0.4%, and April may remain at the same level. And maybe even a little grow up - up to 0.5%. The problems with VAT will still show themselves, everything is not as simple as it seems, and we should not think that we have already experienced them.

4. The euro in April may rise to $1.14 per unit of the European currency. Earlier, the euro was weakened, including by political problems, primarily those related to Brexit. But events in England are developing in such a way that not everyone wants to leave the European Union, and on such a wave there are quite weighty reasons to strengthen the euro.

Valery Petrov, Vice President for Market Development and Regulation of the Russian Association of Cryptoindustry and Blockchain (RACIB):

1. I think the ruble will lose ground a little, and the exchange rate will return to the level of 65–66 rubles/$. The March strengthening of the ruble was due to two main reasons - the rather serious need of our exporters for ruble liquidity, they had to make large payments to the budget. The second reason is a fairly serious influx of foreign investment in Russian government securities, because in order to buy our OFZs, it was necessary to sell the currency. And as soon as these two factors stop working, the ruble will stop strengthening and return to the level of 65–66 rubles/$. Also, do not forget that no one has canceled anti-Russian sanctions, and the ongoing anti-Russian hysteria negatively affects the ruble exchange rate. And in April this will most likely continue.

2. If the agreements reached within the framework of OPEC + are maintained, then oil will most likely remain at $67 per barrel, and maybe grow a little - up to $70. The total number of shale oil rigs in the US continues to decline and is now at its lowest level since 2018. The United States is the main seller of oil outside the OPEC + agreement, and against the backdrop of problems in Venezuela and pressure exerted by the United States on Iraq, there is no reason to reduce oil prices. The US needs expensive oil because shale oil is getting more and more expensive.

3. Approximately the same as in previous months. Annual inflation figures are unlikely to grow. But this is achieved by very negative actions on the part of the regulator, the amount of cash liquidity entering the economy is significantly limited, and the price of money remains very high. On the one hand, we limit the growth of inflation, and on the other hand, our economic growth begins to concentrate at points called state projects, because only there is targeted funding and a sufficient amount of money. We have not seen a free inflow of foreign investment for a long time, and most likely we will not see it for a long time, and our investors simply do not have free funds.

4. I think that the ratio will remain at the same level of $1.14–1.15. But perhaps the dollar will strengthen a little, because the negative economic problems in Europe are only growing. This is due to both Brexit and the mass of negative economic phenomena in Europe. There is no need to wait for economic growth there, and the demand for the American currency, though not much, is growing. I think the Americans manage to reshape trade flows in their favor, and most likely they will squeeze China in the direction that is of interest to them. The monetary policy pursued by the Fed does not contribute to the weakening of the dollar.

Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist, Head of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis of Alfa-Bank:

1. Key factors for the foreign exchange market in April will be the elections in Ukraine and the general situation in emerging markets. At the moment, there is some risk appetite in the markets, which means that even in case of turbulence, investors will prefer to perceive the correction as an opportunity to enter the market. I believe that the ruble can feel confident in early April and possibly until the end of the month with a target of 63–64 rubles/$.

2. I expect that in April inflation will be 0.4%, that is, it will return to normal target values, which will ensure an inflation rate of 5.4% in annual terms. However, as annual inflation figures remain above 5% through the end of the third quarter due to the base effect, inflation expectations will remain high.

3. The dynamics of oil prices will be determined by the risk of new sanctions against Iran, on the one hand, and negotiations between China and the United States on trade restrictions, on the other hand. According to my expectations, now the US will not be interested in escalating pressure on China, while it is likely to increase pressure on Iran, which in combination will move oil prices to higher levels, in the range of $70-75 Brent.

4. On the eve of the elections to the European Parliament, the market may be nervous about the results and risks of strengthening the positions of eurosceptics, for this reason, the euro will tend to weaken. Nevertheless, since the situation on world markets may normalize if the risks of trade wars decrease, the euro-dollar pair is likely to remain near the current levels of 1.113-1.14.

Sergey Romanchuk, Head of the Dealing Center of JSCB Metallinvestbank, President of ACI Russia:

1. The exchange rate of the ruble can fluctuate widely, approximately 63-67 rubles / $, since the month can be hot. On the one hand, the ruble should remain stable in the long term and even tend to appreciate due to tight monetary policy (high interest rates with low inflation) and a balanced budget. In addition, the general expectation of its weakening also plays for the ruble, which affects the positioning of the players: everyone who wanted it has already bought the currency, while the sellers are waiting. But on the other hand, the results of the Mueller investigation in the United States and another round of confrontation on the "Venezuelan front" mean that new sanctions are more likely, which could weaken the ruble in the short term. Mainly, the value of the dollar against the ruble will be determined by its dynamics against other currencies, primarily emerging markets, and it is difficult to say how the risk tolerance of international investors will change over the next month.

2. Oil prices look quite stable and are likely to continue a soft upward drift - the range for the nearest Brent futures is $66-70 per barrel. The news from OPEC+ is pushed closer to summer, so I see no particular reason to expect an increase in volatility.

3. A record drop in inflation expectations and a smaller-than-expected impact of the VAT hike on prices suggests that inflation will come out lower than expected in April, which will be helped by the continued strengthening of the ruble since the beginning of the year. So my forecast for April is +0.3%

4. The euro against the dollar will continue to maintain stability, there will most likely not be any sharp movements from the Fed and the ECB, they act synchronously in order to maintain a soft monetary policy, so there will be no increase in rates either in euro or in dollars, as well as a large-scale capital outflow. 1.115-1.135 is my range prediction for April 2019.

Group "Direct speech"

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the following questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and dollar cost in 2020; when will the crisis in Russia end and so on.

After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concern, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and worry about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners Concerned about one issue: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.

Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2020;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will find out our vision on the forecast of the ruble and the dollar.

If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions, which are carried out by Western countries, also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2020, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The imposition of sanctions against Russia was motivated by political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to withdraw from unitary Ukraine. Yes, in 2014 a referendum was held which brought together more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities And act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted secession from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also affected the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil And aircraft building.

In particular, the restrictions apply to the following Russian oil and gas companies:

• "Rosneft";
• "Transneft";
• Gazpromneft.

The following Russian banks were affected by the sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• Gazprombank;
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The sanctions did not bypass the industry of the Russian Federation:

• Uralvagonzavod;
• "Oboronprom";
• United Aircraft Corporation.

The sanctions consist in prohibiting residents of the European Union and their companies from trading in securities with a validity period of over 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of petroleum products.

In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also banned the transfer to Russia technologies, equipment And intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entry into the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide companies subject to sanctions funding for more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to the territory of Russia to support the Russian military forces. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft, which were developed by US forces, as well as which include elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G.

America banned issuing a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia from participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks and so on.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about the actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in the Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but the hiding of refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral stance and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. With Russia's retaliatory sanctions, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns countries of the Middle East .

Having cooperated, it is possible to issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but they have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia improve your export. Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all because of prohibitions And sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia eventually achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play its role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having caved in under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is not at the highest level anyway.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2020 📈📉

In recent years, the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia has fallen more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will continue to behave. This is especially of concern to people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people who are worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets at this broker .

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the depreciation of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

Scenario 1 - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration And economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should acquire its former price value. 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, which will increase the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in autumn 2020.

2nd Scenario - Alarm Scenario

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Oil market collapses only worsen the situation of stabilizing the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the US dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government's plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not at all include the adoption of measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is what the state's efforts are aimed at.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia copes with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and diggers.

Do not wait for the ruble to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall of the economy can not have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions for the operation of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the inflow of material resources into the country, which adversely affects the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble will begin to lose its current positions.

Several reasons will contribute to this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in the price of oil on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its export brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• The second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions by Western states, which also impede the stabilization of the ruble. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of the country's capital.

Under such events, GDP is expected to decline to a figure that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd Scenario - Realistic Scenario

As shown by the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only increase.

As for the price of oil, in this scenario it will remain the same price of $40-60 per barrel. The level of GDP will approach zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will even have a negative indicator. A fall GDP will be about 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the decline and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Factors of growth of the ruble

Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive impact on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . The investment of Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps, in the near future, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while earning income in the form of dividends.
• The cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia enriches its state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
• The ratio of the population to the national currency. It is not immediately clear what the meaning of these words is, people normally relate to him. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the exchange rate of the ruble. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country's lending policy will become, respectively, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, the inhabitants of the Russian Federation, as residents, and Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high volume of production will not only meet the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors of the fall of the ruble

In weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without suspecting it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the positions of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their own low prosperity.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It's impossible to influence it. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a stable position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening the national currency of the country. America is confidently strengthening its positions. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble loses its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. Game of the population with exchange rates. The desire to make money on the exchange rate arises among the majority of Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people secure their savings through a stable currency. In moments of a strong fall in the ruble exchange rate, huge transfers were made exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures. During the fall of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall of the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. The equipment that has been left since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people in domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, the stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing one or another product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for about the same price category as a domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2020 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts in this regard.

💡 We recommend that you first read the opinion of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub ". At the link you will find tabs and sections with fresh forecasts by a specialist, you can also buy and sell various assets through this broker.

Through the "Tools" tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currencies, etc.) is available. Analytics tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge downturn. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolay Salabuto . While holding the post of head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that several factors influenced this:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off the oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which is completely dependent on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development on the part of government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, whose policy will be associated with some activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.

But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors cited above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , the director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that conditionally the factors for the depreciation of the ruble can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are external sanctions of other states, and the country's external debt.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the price of oil in $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. This price will help reduce 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more reassuring. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting point. The analyst says that already in 2020, the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of one of them, it is necessary for oneself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2020 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is shown as follows: with the growth of the dollar, the price of oil is falling, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2020. The External Economic Bank predicts the cost of 6 $0 per barrel or more . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $70, and the support level is $42.

Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are broken through, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. When “breaking through” down $58, it goes into the range of $53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of an absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $28 per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - the coming years: breaking news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position against other foreign currencies, such as dollar And Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its value.

Some foreign states, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. The foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and about the national currency rate, in particular.

Fluctuations of the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2020, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2020 the price per US dollar will be 55-58 rubles if the policy of OPEC will contribute to raising quotations per barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a result, the inability to work at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect foreign exchange relations, which will not play in favor of our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts for the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2020 the exchange rate of the national currency will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be $70 per barrel.

All world banks agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting the rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up patience And baggage of actions, because a quick return to the former situation is not worth waiting for.

7. Frequently asked questions on the exchange rate of the ruble and the dollar 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2020?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the US currency has been troubling the population for some time now. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. The policy of the state is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the national currency of Russia.

For example, trade in Russia's national resource, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell US Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in an instant.

City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov assesses the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov claims that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial the disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two rates of shadow turnover. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week?

In forecasting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no special reasons for the stabilization of the exchange rate.

We remind you that fresh forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The exchange rate of the ruble, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and economy, the more reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is connected with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected import balance And export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this allows you to enrich the state budget.

Speaking of this balance, it must be remembered that America has the largest public debt . In addition, the US has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why experts' forecasts do not come true from year to year, and why does the dollar remain the most demanded currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the fall of the dollar?

If the dollar falls anyway, to be replaced by another currency. It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the EU currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first of all Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

The reason for this stagnation is also America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were going through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets were falling in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even in a crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs in order to save the accumulated funds and their possible increase.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If rumors are to be believed, the economic crisis was actually caused by one of the "powerful moves" by America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

In 2008, in order to maintain the economic situation in America, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period it was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, as the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. the sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the rejection of the dollar as a currency;
2. if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method by selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then pay off with the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar rise in 2020?

We have already described in detail the possible forecasts for the dollar. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rates in the near future, which could negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2020: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions for the ruble and dollar exchange rate, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

* Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts on your own. No one knows the exact forecasts!!!

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9. Conclusion + related video 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a speedy stabilization of Russia's national course. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon occur.

But despite such bright prospects, it should be understood that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by various actions, and not only domestic , but also external political factors taken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the people of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. Spending was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.

After all, the country's income will drop significantly, and a lot of money is required to maintain the functioning level of the economy of such a huge state. The opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, are promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of the gross domestic product.

But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?" Everyone is looking for himself, making his own forecasts and relying on his own principles.

If you have questions and suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video