Investment Ideas Smart Value. Accurate advice: how the InvestIdeas service selects the best stock forecasts Finam investment ideas
The alarming political situation in the world, the continuous development of high technologies and the change of generations have formed several stable trends in the global investment market. Some of them are already able to bring profits of more than 25% per annum, while others will only take off in a few years and are more of interest to long-term investors.
1. Fashion for responsible investment
Throughout the year, two fashionable abbreviations reflecting the nature of investments do not leave the pages of financial publications - ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) and SRI (Social Responsible Investment). In fact, this includes all types of businesses that can positively impact society, as well as companies that pay increased attention to environmental and social aspects. In 2016, investments in the ESG sector reached $10.4 trillion, according to the World Bank.
According to the US Department of the Treasury, about 85% of “millennials” (young people born at the end of the 20th century) make socially significant investments. Their influence in this market will grow even stronger when this generation inherits from their parents - "baby boomers" - assets worth about $41 trillion.
The range of potential investments in the ESG/SRI segments is huge - from small start-ups engaged in the development of a water treatment system to global projects to combat climate change. As a rule, such initiatives are built on completely new technologies and practices that have not yet been tested anywhere.
For those who are not ready for venture risks, analysts such as Thomson Reuters have introduced ESG ratings for companies from traditional sectors. The indices reflect the level of socially significant practices in enterprises and, apparently, often influence investment decisions.
A couple of years ago, Warren Buffett acquired a stake of over 9% in Axalta Coating Systems, one of the world's largest auto paint manufacturers. The company's stock shows very modest growth, but it always has a high ESG rating and an excellent reputation for quality management.
In May last year, the French Axa decided to get rid of €1.8 billion in tobacco assets. And in mid-2017, one of the world's largest players in the reinsurance market, Swiss Re, announced that its entire $130 billion portfolio would be managed taking into account the principles of ESG.
In turn, the shares of the Whole Food Markets organic food supermarket chain have lost almost half of their value since 2013, but are now considered undervalued: the fashion for healthy lifestyles and organic food is gradually improving the company's well-being.
The fashion for responsible investing has also spawned a plethora of themed ETFs. They do not bring fabulous profits, usually giving up to 10.5% per annum in the long run. But competition in the market helps private investors save some money. For example, the largest ETF issuer in the world - the BlackRock fund - recently halved its commissions on all "socially responsible" securities issued by it.
2. Health care of a new type
When technologies based on Big Data and machine learning began to be actively introduced in the healthcare sector, this industry experienced a real boom. In 2015, the volume of venture investments in the Healthcare direction in the US alone reached $7.5 billion. In 2016, this figure was already $7.7 billion.
It is likely that we are now witnessing the second wave of this boom. Silicon Valley Bank analysts are confident that the record will be broken in 2017 - according to the results of the first half of the year, investments in startups in this sector have already exceeded $6 billion.
In addition, Western consumers are less and less trusting surgeons with their beauty and longevity, and more and more - the anti-aging medical segment, which is focused on taking into account individual characteristics and preventing diseases.
New opportunities in this area are based on the analysis of huge amounts of historical data, a comprehensive study of the systems and cells of the body, which ultimately allows you to calculate and prevent risks to the health of each person.
Since everyone wants to be healthy and live long, there are no problems with demand here. At the same time, investors have already received a good inoculation against excessive enthusiasm for breakthrough medical technologies. After Theranos, the market began to think about how obscure and unpredictable this industry is. Over the summer, Stanford University launched a rapid blood test start-up and now has to constantly repeat that the new development has nothing to do with the Theranos system. But these statements do not inspire much confidence in the market.
Because of these fears, many investors prefer to invest in Healthcare through industry managers or opt for ETFs familiar to the market, which are quite suitable for long-term savings. For example, the Platinum International Health Care Fund from November 2003 to the end of October 2017 provided an average annual return of 9.73%.
3. Artificial intelligence is gaining power
The AI sector has long been invested mainly in two directions - through small start-ups or within large companies. Now these directions have crossed in the market. In 2017, investments in artificial intelligence entered a new stage - mergers and acquisitions. Market giants are actively buying small profile players, and most often this has a positive effect on their well-being on the stock exchange.
There were 591 transactions involving AI companies last year, totaling $4.2 billion. The trend was led by tech giants with the largest M&A deals. Google, Apple, Intel, Microsoft and Salesforce acquired more than 40 companies in 2016 that are engaged in machine learning, data science, natural language processing and computer vision.
The acquisition of AI companies has become one of the growth drivers on the stock exchange - the same Google continues to grow by tens of percent a year, despite the significant costs and risks associated with the introduction of new technologies.
However, do not forget that artificial intelligence is still a little about the future. And most AI-based products - like Nvidia's on-road video systems for autopilots - will begin to turn a profit closer to 2020-2030.
4. "Absorption of technologies"
This year, for the first time in the history of the market, the non-tech sector has invested more in private technology startups than the IT sector. Today, 51% of the funds spent by Fortune 500 companies on tech start-ups come from players who do not directly earn from technology, but only use it in their work.
Over the past few years, there has been a whole list of industries that are actively spent on the technological component. These are, first of all, financiers (Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, American Express), media people (Disney, Time Warner, Discovery), industrialists (General Electric, Caterpillar), doctors (Anthem, Humana) and business service providers (Master Card, Western Union).
As a rule, technological transformation based on acquired resources helps companies reduce costs, expand their presence, and increase the return on "physical" sites. Therefore, the market traditionally reacts to the absorption of techno-startups by increasing the quotes of the parent company.
One of the largest recent acquisitions is the acquisition of Jet.com by Walmart. In 2016, the retailer paid $3 billion for the leader of the US e-commerce market. Walmart believes that the resulting technological capabilities will help make the service for customers more personalized and thus stand out from the competition.
Experts note that, by and large, retailers do not yet know exactly which personalization elements work best - individual mailing, personalized recommendations based on previous purchases, or, for example, personal greetings in the hall.
However, in order to launch these options, in any case, the company will have to collect information about the buyer, process it correctly and provide it to the staff on time. This means that investments in IT are timely and justified. And while Walmart hasn't announced any specific technology plans, its stock has gone up steadily. The trend continues to this day - since the beginning of 2017, the company's securities have added 29%.
At the same time, the “technology absorption” policy is actually turning into the mainstream for non-tech enterprises, and therefore no longer provides them with significant benefits compared to competitors. But the absence of such investments from a major player is an alarming sign for an investor.
5. China is back in favor
Investor attention regularly shifts from developed markets to emerging markets and vice versa. Now is undoubtedly the time for Emerging Markets. The reason, rather, is not in the good health of the Asia-Pacific countries - there are also many difficulties. Simply investing in key developed economies is even more risky. The controversial behavior of US President Donald Trump, his friction with Congress over tax reform and hurricanes in the US have reduced the attractiveness of the North American market.
In Europe, meanwhile, the situation is heating up because of the situation in Catalonia - the richest region of Spain. In addition, uncertainty remains about the consequences of Brexit.
As a result, investors, primarily Western ones, are once again thinking about developing economies. Here, the stock markets continued their recovery, which began last year. As of the end of October, the MSCI Emerging Markets index rose by 32.64%, while the MSCI World Index - by only 18.76%. In terms of year-on-year indicators, developing countries are also ahead - 26.91% growth against 23.46%.
Against the backdrop of such dynamics, Western investors unanimously remembered the prospects for the consumer sector in China. According to McKinsey forecasts, in five years the size of the middle class in China will more than double and amount to 600 million people. This boosts the prices of thematic funds such as the Premium China Fund, which invests in companies listed in Hong Kong, mainland China and Taiwan. The average yield of these securities over 12 years was just over 10.5% per annum, but over the year from September 2016 to September 2017, their value growth exceeded 28%.
Those who want to make money on Chinese consumption are urged to be careful, pointing to the opacity of many structures in China and corruption scandals. However, the same is said about Russia, which does not prevent foreign investors from making profits on the Russian market. And judging by Trump's rhetoric and the situation around Catalonia, China and other emerging markets will be in demand for a long time to come.
Trading plan:
Buying from the level of $54.45 with a target of $55.7 for a period of 8 days. Potential profitability of the transaction = 2.3%. Stop loss if the price reaches $52.28.
Factors for:
Cisco Systems increases sales and shows much better dynamics than the Dow Jones index since the beginning of the year;
Shares are traded in a growing channel, the price is likely to break through the $57 resistance level;
The company maintains a strong position in the telecommunications equipment market.
Cisco (CSCO) price chart:
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for 8
days before
54,45 $
54,41 $
Trading plan:
Buying from the level of $131.0 with a target of $134.0 for a period of 8 days. Potential profitability of the transaction = 2.3%. Stop loss if the price reaches $125.77.
Factors for:
United Technologies increases sales and reduces costs;
The share price approached the support level, growth to $140 is possible;
1Q 2019 revenue was above analysts' expectations;
Possible deep correction of the US stock market;
An increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve.
United Tech. (UTX), price chart:
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for 8
days before
131,00 $
130,26 $
Trading plan:
Buying from the level of $20.03 with a target of $20.84 for a period of 32 days. Potential profitability of the transaction = 4%. Stop loss if the price reaches $18.43.
Factors for:
The company's shares were worth more than $44 in 2015 and, after hitting a low of $12.3 in 2016, were in a sideways movement with an average price of $18;
The recovery price movement began in 2019, and now the paper is firmly held at $20. Technically and fundamentally, there is reason to believe that the stock will continue to rise;
The company's revenue began to recover from 2017 after a decline in 2015-2016. Net profit in 2018 amounted to $1.6 billion and was higher than the value of 2014 of $1.0 billion (due to a reduction in accrued taxes). Operating profit is still below 2014 levels;
Debt reduction from $40 billion to $34 billion and high dividends of 4.9% per annum.
Possible S&P500 correction.
Kinder Morgan (KMI) price chart:
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for 1
month before
20,03 $
19,92 $
Trading plan:
Buying from the level of $33.42 with a target of $34.76 for a period of 32 days. Potential profitability of the transaction = 4%. Stop loss if the price reaches $30.75.
Factors for:
Micron Technology shares have corrected throughout the month and have now reached the $33 support level;
P/Forward Earnings stands at 6.94, below the five-year average of 8.61. According to this multiplier, securities are undervalued;
The company's 2018 revenue was $30.4 billion compared to 2017 revenue of $20.32 billion;
Reducing the level of debt by three times over the past year.
Possible correction of the S&P500 against the backdrop of the escalation of the "trade war" between the US and China.
Micron Technology (MU) price chart:
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for 1
month before
33,42 $
33,95 $
Trading plan:
Buying from the level of $35.91 with a target of $37.35 for a period of 32 days. Potential profitability of the transaction = 4%. Stop loss if the price reaches $33.04.
Factors for:
The restructuring benefited the electricity producer and supplier. In four years, capital expenditures decreased from $22.4 billion to $3.6 billion;
Accordingly, the need for debt fell: long-term debt decreased from $19.9 billion to $6.4 billion;
NRG almost reached the level of 2014 in terms of operating profit, which in 2018 amounted to $1.14 billion against $1.43 billion four years earlier. Considering that capital expenditures for this now require 6 times less, this is a very good result.
Rising tensions between the US and China could trigger a decline in the stock market.
NRG Energy (NRG), price chart:
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for 1
month before
35,91 $
35,54 $
Trading plan:
Buying from the level of $136.6 with a target of $139.33 for a period of 8 days. Potential trade profit = 2%. The loss limit is set at the price level of $131.15.
Factors for:
The share price of Allergan plc has formed a global sloping support line connecting the lows of 2008, 2010 and 2012, as well as December 2018 and February of this year;
Rebound of American indices from technical support;
Allergan plc is a large multinational pharmaceutical company that is constantly expanding its portfolio of innovative drugs.
The impact of the general downward correction of US indices.
Allergan plc (AGN), price chart:
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for 8
days before
136,60 $
137,89 $
Trading plan:
Buying from the level of $170.5 with a target of $173.91 for a period of 8 days. Potential trade profit = 2%. The loss limit is set at the price level of $165.42.
Factors for:
Having corrected to its horizontal support drop, Amgen stock rebounded from it in yesterday's trading session;
Against the background of the suspension in the downward correction of US indices, I expect the share price to rise from current levels;
Globally rising price trend.
General negative sentiment in the US stock market.
Amgen (AMGN) price chart:
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for 8
days before
170,50 $
171,78 $
Trading plan:
Buying from the level of $32.17 with a target of $32.82 for a period of 8 days. Potential trade profit = 2%. The loss limit is set at the price level of $30.89.
Factors for:
The price of AT&T shares broke through the global horizontal mirror support level from below last week, and at the moment the price is trading above it;
A technical rebound is now likely in American indices, I expect growth in the papers of this company as well;
Since December 2018, there has been an upward trend in stocks.
Downward correction in the US market.
AT&T (T) price chart:
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for 8
days before
32,17 $
32,22 $
Trading plan:
Purchase from the level of 235.25 rubles. with a goal of 242.60 rubles. for a period of 20 days. Potential profitability of the transaction = 4%. Stop loss if the price reaches the level of 214.61 rubles.
Factors for:
Sberbank went up from the "triangle" figure: the support line was clearly stronger than the resistance line. There is every chance for continued growth;
The recent correction is a short-term phenomenon within the overall uptrend. This is clearly visible on the graph;
Sberbank remains in the spotlight and demand is strong given the company's fundamental strength and consistently paid dividends. All this leads to a reasonable increase in the share price.
The emergence of general corrective sentiment on the Russian stock market;
Speculative deepening correction.
Sberbank (SBER), daily chart:
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for 20
days before
$233.25
$229.30
Trading plan:
Buying from the level of $104.03 with a target of $106.8 for a period of 9 days. Potential trade profit = 2.7%. The loss limit is set at the price level of $99.88.
Factors for:
Xilinx increases sales volumes and reduces debt load;
The share price has entered the oversold zone, growth to $110 is possible;
Demand for semiconductors in the world in 2018-2019 grows strongly;
The company maintains a strong position in the market.
Possible deep correction of the US stock market;
An increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve.
Xilinx (XLNX) price chart:
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for 9
days before
104,0300 $
102,1500 $
106,8000 $
Trading plan:
Buying from the level of $24.13 with a target of $24.62 for a period of 9 days. Potential profitability of the transaction = 2%. Stop loss if the price reaches $23.19.
Factors for:
Under Armor increases sales and reduces debt;
The stock chart turned out to be in a side trend, growth to $22 is possible;
Q1 2019 revenue was above analysts' expectations;
The company maintains a strong position in the market.
An increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve.
Under Armor Inc. (UAA), price chart:
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for 9
days before
The creators of the invest-idei.ru resource, which checks the quality of analytics provided by brokers, have prepared a series of materials specifically for FO on the strengths and weaknesses of the content of the most active professional participants. The first article contains an overview of recommendations from BCS.
pros
The materials are published on the BCS-Express website. Recently, the broker also has a separate Telegram channel for investors, where exclusives and recommendations on short-term transactions sometimes appear.
Based on the results of monitoring more than 120 forecasts from BCS, 71% of the bottom brought profit for 2015-2017. The vast majority are issued with an eye to asset growth. At the same time, the average return on a few “bearish” ideas for BCS is higher than for “bullish” ones (+8.65% vs. +4.95%).
Interestingly, BCS forecasts usually come true faster than analysts initially assume: the average position holding period is 116 days with a “planned” year.
Analysts of the company prefer the American market. This is probably due to low liquidity and the choice of instruments on the Russian market. However, many covered US stocks are traded on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange.
Despite the "love" for the foreign, the average profitability of investors on Russian shares is higher than on American ones.
Discipline - here we mean how the broker keeps track and updates the status of an idea after it's published - is also fine. "Closed by timeout" means that the idea was automatically closed after the recommended investment horizon.
Investors are trusted by BCS analysts: 88% of investors received the “believe” mark. For other analysts on the market, this parameter is on average 85%. Such popularity leads investors to be equally optimistic about both potentially profitable and loss-making recommendations. Thus, relying on the opinion of the majority when choosing ideas in this case is not worth it.
And finally, the main parameter is profitability. The average expected (projected) profitability of investors is 16% per annum. At the same time, the actual profitability of transactions is 21%. This is because, on average, ideas work faster than expected.
Minuses
If we compare BCS analytics with the recommendations of other companies (we will talk about them in the following materials), we can note a low average profit per trade (although they have more deals). According to this indicator, BCS receives 3 points out of 10.
In reviews, price stop-losses are rarely set. There are also cases where one idea overlaps another. For example, in May, analysts published on their website a recommendation to buy shares of the American company Macy's at $24. The securities began to fall.
Some time later, the second idea was closed at $23. At the same time, the first idea remains relevant, and its followers still suffer losses. Obviously, formally, BCS released two ideas, one unprofitable, the other profitable, but in essence, investors, especially those who bought at $24, may have questions.
Perhaps the problem arose because the recommendations were published in different sources
Conclusions:
1) Pay attention to BCS ideas on Russian assets.
2) The actual trade horizon is likely to be shorter than predicted (this is good).
3) Keep track of the target prices of ideas, levels of profit taking and opening "short" positions - BCS can somehow accurately determine the turning points.
The InvestIdeas service allows private investors to find out how accurate analysts are in their recommendations. How does he work?
The InvestIdeas service, created by Ivan Klykov, a native of the Alpari forex company, collects recommendations from securities brokers and evaluates how accurate the forecasts were. The site positions itself as an independent aggregator of analyst recommendations for stocks and bonds, currencies and commodities.
Klykov, who has worked in financial companies for about a decade, felt that most of the stock recommendations aimed at private investors were inaccurate or misleading. Klykov, according to him, solved two problems - to collect all the recommendations in one place and figure out which of the analysts gives the most accurate forecasts.
The project cost 300 thousand rubles. investment and several months of work - the project was launched just over a year ago and is used by 5 thousand people a month. Today, the service provides an opportunity to get acquainted with more than 100 current recommendations from ten brokers and investment companies. Among them are BCS, Finam, Otkritie Broker, Aton.
This list does not include, for example, Sberbank CIB or Renaissance Capital, as well as international investment banks. Klykov explains this by saying that he can only use public analytics.
"InvestIdeas" also take into account the accuracy of forecasts, the ratio of profitable and unprofitable ideas and the profitability of investing according to the recommendations of companies. Based on these data, brokers or investment companies A rating is assigned - a maximum of five stars. So far, judging by this rating, the best forecasters on the Russian market are BCS, Otkritie Broker and Finam".
According to the Extel Survey 2016, the best Russian analysts work for Sberbank Investment Research and UBS. And according to Bloomberg, the most accurate forecasters, for example, for Sberbank shares, are analysts from Alfa-Bank, JP Morgan and HSBC. The list of analysts will expand, Klykov promises. According to him, now the site appears from five to seven new ideas every week.
How it works
Investment ideas are selected manually - from mailing lists or from company websites. On "InvestIdeas" you can see a brief description of the recommendation, the expected and current returns.Each recommendation has a “popular rating” where users can guess whether the forecast will actually work.
Ideas cease to be relevant in three cases, says Klykov: when the price of the instrument reaches the target value, when the broker or investment company removes the recommendation, or after a year. So, on August 29, Freedom Finance's recommendation to buy shares of Netflix shares with a target price of $140 became irrelevant: a year has passed, and their value has not reached this level. At the time of the recommendation, they cost $101.5 apiece, and on Tuesday - $98.
In general, according to the founder of the project, there were surprisingly many correct predictions: over the past year, about 70% of investment ideas have worked. “But this may be due to the growth of the market,” suggests Klykov.
In July, the service got a bot in Telegram. It is run by several teams and can send dollar forecasts, as well as new investment ideas for stocks or bonds. In addition, you can ask the bot for the three most popular ideas among investors - these are the predictions that the most users voted for. The bot sends a short description of the broker's recommendation, price forecast and potential profitability.
The service is currently free. Klykov says that in the future, some services, such as information about archival ideas, may become paid and provided on a subscription basis.
Is it worth using
Managing partner of the trading company United Traders Anatoly Radchenko calls Klykov's idea "good" to create an aggregator of recommendations on securities: there is not enough information for investors in Russia. “This is a good undertaking, but in any case, blindly copying the deals of even the best forecasters is not worth it,” he recalls.
However, such a platform must be transparent so that investors trust its estimates and do not suspect that they are engaged with the same brokerage and investment companies, he emphasizes.
Dmitry Gerasimenko, a consultant at the Personal Capital consulting group, believes that successful forecasts are most often accidental. “Short-term forecasts often turn out to be right, not because of the knowledge of analysts, but simply because they were lucky to guess. In the future, the probability of accurate hits decreases, ”he says.
When using the recommendations of brokers, Gerasimenko advises risking very small amounts. “But it is better to develop a long-term investment strategy and form your own portfolio for it. Experience shows that this is how capital is created,” he says.
Can you share the investment. ideas/tools for this year, which will be better refinancing rates/deposits? :)What absolutely cannot be done for a beginner when investing
You need to start with banal truths. You should never invest in the stock market with borrowed funds. Experienced investors use the broker's borrowed funds by trading with leverage. But for beginners, trading with credit funds, using leverage, shorting shares (selling shares that are not available) is not worth it. Just as you should not buy investment life insurance in banks (an investment product and insurance separately are much more profitable) or structured products. We bypass trust management (in extreme cases, you can consider mutual funds, but you need to do this correctly). Also, never put your eggs in one basket, trying to ensure that there are profitable instruments in your portfolio no matter what the market does.
What investment instruments to choose
From my point of view, a deposit is one of the worst investment tools. It is better to keep funds on it that may be needed in the near future. But most of all, it is possible to earn on the stock exchange when everyone around is shouting "everything is lost", as it was, for example, in 2008 and 2014. Therefore, the idea of keeping dollars on deposit in a reliable bank is also quite good, even if for some time it will not be possible to beat inflation.
Of course, Eurobonds of very reliable Russian companies with a rate of 5% per annum or more seem more attractive than deposits, but entry into this market for a small retail client starts from a couple of hundred thousand euros. Of course, there are mutual funds (mutual funds), but their fees are too high. The costs of buying exchange-traded ETFs are much lower, but only FinEx ETFs are traded on the Moscow Exchange. I can’t say anything bad about Phinex, but I can’t vouch for this company either. In any case, I would not risk investing more than 1/3 in ETF Finex.
On the exchange, you can buy federal loan bonds (OFZ), which bring profitability no worse than a deposit. Of course, a deposit in a reliable bank, and even in the amount of up to 1.4 million rubles, is a more reliable investment. Bonds can still fall in price. But a huge plus of OFZ is that OFZ can be purchased on in order to receive a deduction for the 1st type in the amount of 52 thousand rubles when making an amount of 400 thousand rubles per year. At the same time, closing the IIS and withdrawing money from it will not work for 3 years (with the loss of a tax deduction, you can close it earlier), and every year you can add 400 thousand rubles.
Stocks usually earn more in the long run than investments in bonds, deposits, or gold. With long-term investment, the second type of deduction on IIA becomes more interesting, when the amount of the increase is not taxed. This type of deduction is also interesting in that you can annually add 1 million rubles a year to the account. It is important to pay attention to the fact that some brokers, dividends from IIS can be received not only on IIS, but also on a bank account.
Buying stocks is for the long term. At the same time, it can be useful to disconnect from the news background, not to read various analysts. News in our country is very coolly manipulated, so even publications in reputable publications should be treated critically, trying to understand who can benefit from it. And just the injection of pessimism can become a very good friend if you find the strength to think soberly and resist the crowd. In fact, the most difficult thing in trading on the stock exchange is not the choice of securities at all, but work with your emotions.
How to know which stocks to buy/sell
Other sites also list dividend forecasts. But of course, there are errors, including in forecasts. And some companies may even refuse to pay dividends, as happened recently with Megafon.
If a newcomer sees a 16-17% return on Bashneft's preferred shares, he may be tempted to buy those shares for 100% cash. And of course this would be a mistake. Of course, before buying any share, it is advisable to study the financial statements, which companies traded on the Moscow Exchange must post on the Interfax Information Disclosure Server. Of course, it is desirable to evaluate the dynamics of changes in various parameters, including revenue, operating profit, net income and debt. It does not hurt to read the charter to understand how the company calculates dividends and in what cases.
Of course, many do not have the opportunity to study all this. It is not necessary to trust the recommendations of brokers, because. it is profitable for the broker to receive commissions from the trading volume, plus the broker can sell / buy securities, as opposed to his own recommendations for clients. At the moment, several investment communities in the social network VKontakte allow you to evaluate many companies for free:
From paid analytics, you can look at from Elvis Marlamov.
In any case, you still need to think with your head, but such communities allow you to pay attention to some companies, as well as evaluate how experienced investors act. Moreover, many of them will not give recommendations, or after some time they will offer paid services.
In general, I am not a fan of keeping 100% dividend stories. If a company distributes a large share of its profits as dividends, then it is obvious that not so much is invested in development. As a result, there may never be a multiple increase in the value of the shares themselves. And in case of refusal to pay dividends (as it was, for example, in the case of NKNK), the value of the share may decrease significantly.
Also, I don't really like buying dividend stories when the company might be at the top of the cycle. For example, Severstal pays very worthy dividends of about 3% per quarter. But in 2013-2014, a Severstal share was worth 200-300 rubles, and now it is about 1,000 rubles. If the value of the metal has reached its peak, then after the fall in its value, we will see a fall in quotations and dividends.
In addition, the market does not value stocks with a high level of capital expenditures. It would seem that Gazprom pays more than 5% of dividends, builds a bunch of gas pipelines, the completion of which can significantly increase cash flows, as well as profits. But the market does not believe that construction will end. And of course, in the share price, investors include the level of kickbacks during construction.
Given the availability of capital, it makes great sense to look at Western markets as well. Companies there may appear overvalued and dividends low compared to the Russian market, but it is important to consider real returns net of inflation, as well as the likelihood of ruble devaluation.
And of course, it will be useful to read Sergey Spirin's asset-allocation to learn about asset allocation and portfolio rebalancing. Of course, you won’t get specific advice on what stocks, bonds, precious metals, ... to buy, but you will be able to form a portfolio for your goals and objectives, and also avoid some mistakes.
My investment portfolio
My portfolio is 100% stocks:
- iDonskZR p
- JSC "AFK "Sistema" JSC, issue 05
- JSC "Lenzoloto" JSC, issue 02
- JSC "MMK" PJSC, issue 03
- JSC "Moscow Exchange" PJSC, issue 01
- JSC "PROTEK" JSC, issue 02
- JSC "Raspadskaya" OJSC, issue 04
- AP "Nizhnekamskneftekhim" (NKNKh) OJSC, Issue 02
- AP "ANK "Bashneft" PJSC, issue 01
- AP "Mechel" JSC, issue 01
- AP "Saratov Oil Refinery" PJSC, release 01
- AP Lenenergo
- Shares of United Company Rusal Plc
- GDR En+ Group ORD SHS REG S
- JSC "Polyus" PJSC, issue 01
- IDGC of Center and Volga Region JSC, issue 01
- JSC "IDGC of Volga" PJSC, issue 01
I had experience investing in mutual funds of Uralsib Management Company, Sberbank UA Management Company (Troika-Dialog), Alliance-Rosno Management Company, Kit-Finance Management Company, Alfa Capital Management Company. There are so many shortcomings of mutual funds that you can write a separate article about this. But I no longer have any desire to invest in them, because. management costs eat up a decent percentage of profits, but managers almost never manage to overtake the market. The only exception is, perhaps, real estate rental funds, but only from reliable management companies.
The well-known American billionaire Warren Buffett of course recommends that newcomers invest through exchange-traded ETFs, which outperform most managers in long-term investment, also due to extremely low costs.
What specific securities can be purchased by a beginner
For a beginner, I would recommend 1/3 of the funds to invest in a dollar deposit, 1/3 in OFZ, and another third in dividend stories, namely: AP Saratov Refinery, AP Lenenergo, AFK Sistema, AP Bashneft in equal shares. And then deal in more detail with the companies listed on the stock exchange, reducing the share of OFZ and foreign currency deposits in case of falls, investing in such stories as Rusal, Raspadskaya, Mechel, Polyus, Novatek, RusHydro, Mos.birzha, Yandex, FGC, Kamaz, NKHP, VSMPO-Avisma, PhosAgro, Enel, Gazprom Neft, Aeroflot, LSR, Mostotrest, Magnit, ...
But of course, the highest return can be obtained by purchasing shares at a time of crisis, when everyone around is screaming that everything is lost. Other options to get multiple growth are extremely rare.
p.s. If you need a guaranteed return above the deposit and / or the refinancing rate, then this is certainly not about shares. In the case of long-term investment, stocks really showed historically higher results (unlike a deposit, which often does not even outperform inflation). But a high return in the past does not guarantee the same in the future.
